Starmer faces Scottish revolt over welfare cuts as by-election looms

Times

2 days ago

Sir Keir Starmer is facing a revolt from Scottish MPs over welfare cuts amid concerns that Reform is poised to secure a breakthrough in a critical by-election next week.
Senior Labour figures are braced for the party to finish third behind the SNP and Reform in the Holyrood by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse.
Government whips have been warned by Scottish MPs that they will not back reforms to disability benefits and wider welfare overhauls as a result.
A senior government source told The Times: 'The Hamilton loss will have some serious implications. We're about to get quite considerably humped in the by-election and it will ripple through the Scottish parliamentary Labour Party.
'It sounds like it's really rubbish on the ground and, when we lose, are the Scottish MPs really going to traipse through the lobbies to back us on welfare cuts? It's an SNP seat but it looks like Reform will at least come second, pushing us into third.'
The Hamilton by-election was triggered by the death of the SNP MSP Christina McKelvie in March. Although she had a 4,582 majority over Labour, she won the seat in 2021 when SNP were high in the polls. It is a seat that Labour would be expected to win if it is to have any hope of forming a government in the Holyrood elections next year.
Instead, Labour strategists fear the party's candidate, Davy Russell, could be pushed into third place behind the SNP and Reform. The Reform candidate, Ross Lambie, joined the party in March, having defected from the Conservatives.
However, senior Labour sources loyal to Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, insisted that they remain locked in a two-horse race with the SNP and say claims they are certain to fall behind Reform are misguided.
Insiders believe Scottish MPs will blame Starmer's decision to cut winter fuel payments for all but the most vulnerable of pensioners for the result in Hamilton and some are considering making their opposition to forthcoming cuts public.
'Something pretty radical is going to have to change off the back of this result for me to change my mind,' one said.
The government is increasingly concerned that any concessions offered to welfare rebels will fall on deaf ears, as those planning to defy the whip sense 'safety in numbers'.
The Times revealed on Monday that disability benefit claimants could get more time to seek new support before the £3.4 billion cuts are imposed, in an attempt to soften the blow and provide an 'off-ramp' for those who could otherwise vote against the government.
Other tweaks being considered include the potential expansion of free school meals to cover more children, while there are ongoing discussions around the two-child benefit cap before a report due in the autumn from the government's child poverty taskforce. Starmer has also committed himself to partially reversing the cuts to winter fuel payments.
However, senior sources told The Times that although they did not expect the number of potential rebels to increase much further, 'everyone is pretty entrenched and it's safety in numbers'. They added: 'There are three figures worth of them so it's quite difficult to peel them off individually at this point.'
Labour's Scottish MPs were said to have been particularly angry in their questioning of Pat McFadden, the chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, on winter fuel and welfare during a meeting of MPs last week.
In contrast to the Westminster government, Holyrood announced in November that every Scottish pensioner household would receive a winter fuel payment this year. One source said there were 'increasing divisions' within Labour's parliamentary party in Westminster, with many of the party's 37 Scottish MPs concerned that the government was not paying sufficient attention to next year's Holyrood elections.
They are particularly concerned about the impact on their prospects from the government's welfare reform package.
About 433,050 people — or about eight per cent of the population in Scotland — receive adult disability payments, the Scottish equivalent of personal independent payments (PIP). Any reduction on PIP spending by the Treasury would have a knock-on effect on the Scottish government's budget to fund these payments.
On Saturday, a busload of about 40 Reform activists will arrive in Hamilton from Runcorn, returning the favour after a Scottish delegation travelled south to help Sarah Pochin overturn a 14,696 Labour majority earlier this month.
Although Farage's camp expects to deploy 100 foot soldiers in total, Labour insists it will have twice that number campaigning in Hamilton.
'We are still neck and neck with the SNP,' a senior Labour source said from the constituency. 'We have a well-oiled machine, we know exactly who to target and how. Reform are loud but they don't know what they're doing.
'There is not a chance we will finish third'.