Researchers taking the wind out of cyclone devastation

West Australian

14-06-2025

Although Alfred was an ex-tropical cyclone by the time it reached Queensland in March, it still managed to cause over a billion dollars' damage.
For most, the toll had it landed as a Category 5 system generating winds in excess of 250km/h, doesn't bear contemplating.
Yet for an elite team of Australian National University researchers, it's the kind of scenario that lives rent free in their heads.
The group is on course to establish how aerosols might hold the key to stopping destructive cyclones in their tracks.
The small airborne particles have been shown to stunt storm development, according to the study's lead author Associate Professor Roslyn Prinsley.
With climate change making cyclones more dangerous, she is convinced innovative solutions have become crucial.
"Others have looked at the impact of aerosols on a fully grown cyclone, when it might be about to hit land," she explained.
"We thought, it may be easier to stop them before they start."
Prof Prinsley and her colleagues have already shown it's possible.
The trick lies in understanding the complex physics of how clouds form, including how tiny particles interact, how heat is released and how these processes impact one another other.
Past efforts to modify storms have failed because researchers couldn't reliably predict their behaviour. Without accurate forecasting models, attempts to alter cloud formation have largely proved to be guesswork.
However understanding how aerosols of different sizes disrupt extreme weather systems at the formation stage has provided the way forward.
"We found coarse aerosols initially dampen vortex acceleration, while fine or ultrafine aerosols boost it first but later weaken it more than coarse aerosols," Prof Prinsley said.
"Getting these aerosols to where they're needed is another challenge we're looking at - it would require several aircraft to disperse the aerosols over a few hours."
She is confident Australia will become a global leader in the somewhat obscure scientific space, with the coastline off Western Australia providing a ripe testing ground.
Cyclones that form there, the ones that will never hit land, are the best to test.
The ANU team is collaborating with a Silicon Valley start-up also aiming to weaken cyclones before they threaten lives.
The Australian research is the only long-term solution," according to Aeolus co-founder Koki Mashita.
"In many parts around the world, the intensification of these events due to climate change has already led to significant increases in insurance premiums.
"As we look into the next few decades, properties will truly become uninsurable and we will need to intervene."