How to navigate a potential Trumpcession
The term 'Trumpcession' has been popping up in headlines this week, as economists and market watchers debate whether President Trump's economic policies could trigger a downturn. But are we actually in a recession right now? Not technically — at least not yet.
When identifying a recession, economists typically look for two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth. While the U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, most experts agree that the trend will need to continue before we're officially in a recession.
But waiting for official confirmation before taking steps to safeguard your money isn't a smart financial strategy. As a certified financial planner, I've seen how early preparation can affect your financial choices during economic uncertainty. So if you're wondering how to protect your money, here's what you should know.
Is a 'Trumpcession' really coming?
Right now, no one really knows. While we've seen some positive economic indicators — like April's better-than-expected jobs report — other metrics suggest a less rosy outlook. For example, the odds of the U.S. economy entering a recession by March 2026 have risen to 36 percent, up from 26 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to Bankrate's latest Economic Indicator Poll. Consumer sentiment has plummeted to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
The current economic anxiety stems largely from the administration's aggressive trade policies that began in April 2025. These include a baseline 10 percent tariff on imports from all countries, with higher rates for nations where the U.S. has large trade deficits.
Should you be concerned about bank safety?
Your money in the bank remains safe during economic uncertainty. Deposits in Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC)-insured banks or National Credit Union Administration (NCUA)-insured credit unions are protected up to $250,000 per depositor, per institution and per ownership category.
The real concern isn't bank safety but potentially shrinking returns. During economic downturns, interest rates typically fall as the Federal Reserve tries to stimulate spending. This creates a mixed bag for your money — potentially lower mortgage rates, but also reduced returns on your savings accounts, certificates of deposits (CDs) and money market accounts. This can particularly impact savers who rely on interest income.
Banking moves to make right now
1. Diversify your accounts
Think of your cash like a sports team — you need players with different strengths. Instead of keeping everything in one account, consider spreading your money across these options:
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Tesla Is Launching Robotaxis in Austin. Safety Advocates Are Concerned
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Then, in a January earnings call, Musk offered one of his typically optimistic predictions about a timetable for a paid robotaxi service, similar Amazon's Zoox, or Waymo, a subsidiary of Google parent company Alphabet. 'Teslas will be in the wild, with no one in them, in June, in Austin,' Musk said, referring to the Texas city that has been a base of operations for his businesses in recent years. Investors were skeptical. After all, Musk has a history of overpromising, and the Cybercab unveiled barely three months earlier was essentially a glorified movie prop. By late May, however, Musk was declaring significant progress on a robotaxi launch. 'For the past several days, Tesla has been testing self-driving Model Y cars (no one in driver's seat) on Austin public streets with no incidents,' he posted on X on May 28. 'A month ahead of schedule. Next month, first self-delivery from factory to customer.' It would appear, in this case, that Tesla had defaulted to the original idea of modifying its commercially available models to make them autonomous rather than holding off until it had a fleet of Cybercabs. Aside from stray comments like these, little is known about what Tesla's initial robotaxi program will look like. The company is reportedly targeting a launch date of June 12, with just 10-20 vehicles to start. A Morgan Stanley analyst — not Tesla itself — has claimed that rides will be available by invite only, not to the general public, and that the cars will be remotely supervised by operators prepared to take manual control if needed. That the automaker is keeping most details under wraps has left plenty of room for questions, doubts, and concerns — particularly as Waymo and other competitors tend to collect data and conduct local testing for far longer periods before welcoming passengers aboard. Dan O'Dowd, a software entrepreneur and founder of the tech safety group the Dawn Project, which has routinely showcased the shortcomings of Tesla's FSD tech, predicts that the robotaxi rollout will amount to lackluster stunt. 'Musk's upcoming robotaxi launch will still be nothing more than a bigger version of the 1950s Disneyland ride that Tesla demonstrated at [the Cybercab] event last year, if it even takes place at all,' he says. 'Despite Elon Musk claiming that Tesla was less than a year away from solving autonomy for nearly a decade and decrying the real robotaxi companies for geo-fencing and remote supervision, Tesla plans for its so-called robotaxis to only be able to drive around certain parts of Austin, avoiding intersections that are difficult,' while being remotely supervised,' O'Dowd notes. (Musk admitted in a recent interview that the robotaxis would be 'geo-fenced,' or restricted from certain parts of the city.) 'Tesla has also shown itself incapable of developing a working Cybercab, instead leaning on its Model Y in another backtrack on Elon's many false promises about solving autonomy,' O'Dowd adds. 'The golden Model 3 mules that Tesla is using to develop the Cybercab's software clearly demonstrate that Tesla has put the cart before the horse with the Cybercab.' On June 2, an X user posted a video of a Model 3 in a Tesla lot in San Diego that had seemingly been modified to resemble the Cybercab design, with its side mirrors removed and the rear windshield painted gold along with the body panels. The clip was taken by many Tesla observers as evidence that it was also using Model 3s to run autonomous driving experiments ahead of the robotaxi pilot program. Brett Schreiber, a partner at the San Diego law firm Singleton Schreiber who is currently pursuing multiple injury and wrongful death suits against Tesla over accidents involving its driver-assistance features, agrees that the company is backing down from the Cybercab concept Musk presented last year. 'It is a retreat on the idea that they are going to build out a new vehicle that is capable of autonomy,' he says, though 'a repeat of the continued lies and misrepresentations' from the CEO — namely, that existing Teslas can be turned into robotaxis. 'There is nothing about the vehicle today, whether you slap some lipstick on the pig of a Model Y, or any other vehicle in their production fleet, that [makes it] capable of level four or level five autonomy without driver intervention. They simply haven't gotten there, and just because they keep saying so doesn't make it true.' Levels four and five of driving automation refer to systems in which 'a human driver is not needed,' per NHTSA guidelines. Tesla's FSD is currently classified as level two, meaning that a human driver 'is fully responsible' for operating the vehicle even while assistance features are engaged. Schreiber believes that Tesla brought the robotaxi project to Texas for 'a more lax environment with respect to enforcement,' saying that 'in many states, California being one of them, they would not be allowed to do this in the way that they are doing it. They fled California for a lot of reasons, the least of which was the fact that they felt more constrained by their ability to roll out and continue to use the public roadways as their own personal test track, and use the members of the public as the guinea pigs in the grand experiment.' Indeed, the Texas Department of Transportation does not require any special permits for operating autonomous vehicles — only that these meet the same safety and insurance requirements as other vehicles. In California, by contrast, the Department of Motor Vehicles 'issues permits to manufacturers that test and deploy autonomous vehicles on California public roads.' Tesla, which does not have a press department, did not reply to a request for comment on details of the robotaxi launch or why Austin was chosen as the site. As for regulatory enforcement by NHTSA, it would largely come after the fact, since autonomous vehicle permitting is a state matter, not a federal one. 'Under U.S. law, NHTSA does not pre-approve new technologies or vehicle systems — rather, manufacturers certify that each vehicle meets NHTSA's rigorous safety standards, and the agency investigates incidents involving potential safety defects,' a sposkesperson for the agency tells Rolling Stone. 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