Latest news with #Trumpcession
Yahoo
08-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
How to navigate a potential Trumpcession
The term 'Trumpcession' has been popping up in headlines this week, as economists and market watchers debate whether President Trump's economic policies could trigger a downturn. But are we actually in a recession right now? Not technically — at least not yet. When identifying a recession, economists typically look for two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth. While the U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, most experts agree that the trend will need to continue before we're officially in a recession. But waiting for official confirmation before taking steps to safeguard your money isn't a smart financial strategy. As a certified financial planner, I've seen how early preparation can affect your financial choices during economic uncertainty. So if you're wondering how to protect your money, here's what you should know. Is a 'Trumpcession' really coming? Right now, no one really knows. While we've seen some positive economic indicators — like April's better-than-expected jobs report — other metrics suggest a less rosy outlook. For example, the odds of the U.S. economy entering a recession by March 2026 have risen to 36 percent, up from 26 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to Bankrate's latest Economic Indicator Poll. Consumer sentiment has plummeted to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The current economic anxiety stems largely from the administration's aggressive trade policies that began in April 2025. These include a baseline 10 percent tariff on imports from all countries, with higher rates for nations where the U.S. has large trade deficits. Should you be concerned about bank safety? Your money in the bank remains safe during economic uncertainty. Deposits in Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC)-insured banks or National Credit Union Administration (NCUA)-insured credit unions are protected up to $250,000 per depositor, per institution and per ownership category. The real concern isn't bank safety but potentially shrinking returns. During economic downturns, interest rates typically fall as the Federal Reserve tries to stimulate spending. This creates a mixed bag for your money — potentially lower mortgage rates, but also reduced returns on your savings accounts, certificates of deposits (CDs) and money market accounts. This can particularly impact savers who rely on interest income. Banking moves to make right now 1. Diversify your accounts Think of your cash like a sports team — you need players with different strengths. Instead of keeping everything in one account, consider spreading your money across these options:
Yahoo
01-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
MGM: Don't worry, be happy
Trump on the economic convulsions of the Great Recession and the pandemic: "Hold my beer." (Photo by) Yesterday will probably turn out to be the day the recession was formally introduced to the nation. We can't know for sure. But the shorthand definition of a recession is the economy shrinking for two consecutive quarters. And the U.S. Department of Commerce announced Wednesday that in the first three months of 2025, the economy shrank. Maybe economic stability and rising consumer sentiment will break out all over and prices won't rise very much and the economy won't shrink again in the second quarter and the U.S. economy will escape a recession. And maybe Donald Trump will suddenly seem someone with a stable personality who bases decisions on evidence and facts instead of denying them. Probably not, though. Nevada tends to enter recessions early and exit them late. The Great Recession technically occurred in late 2008 and early 2009. But the economic carnage was already hitting Nevada hard in 2007, and the hardships continued well into the next decade. By some measures, especially household income, Nevada's economy still hadn't fully recovered when it was hit by the next economic convulsion, delivered by the pandemic at the start of the current decade. The economic upheaval from covid hit Nevada harder than any other state. Nevada still has the highest unemployment rate in the nation. Now we have the economic fruits of Trump's first 100 days: A wildly bizarre steaming pile of mayhem created by nothing but the crackpot obsessions of one 78-year-old man, and yet so disturbing it prompts comparisons to the Great Recession and the pandemic. Local exhibit A: Just as during those two prior economic calamities, the price of gold, which goes up when the economy goes south, is setting records. But Barrick, Newmont, and lesser transnational corporations that mine Nevada's gold and lesser minerals aren't the only area firms that intend to weather a Trumpcession with nary a care. A few hours after the Department of Commerce announced the economy shrank in the first quarter of the year, MGM Resorts International heartily assured its shareholders that its first three months of 2025 were just swell. MGM CEO Bill Hornbuckle, during an earnings call Wednesday, touted the corporation's global geographic diversity (China!) as positioning the company's bottom line to stand firm in 'these times of volatility.' And MGM officials also raved about the enormous success of the corporation's massive effort to get people addicted to gambling on their phones (except MGM phrases it differently). BetMGM, a partnership between MGM and Entain (and starring Jamie Foxx), earlier this week announced very healthy earnings for the first quarter. 'What we're seeing is really rude health,' said BetMGM CEO Adam Greengblatt, in what seems a horribly candid and apt description. After all, what could be a more fitting accompaniment to Trump's self-inflicted economic carnage than people losing everything by gambling through an app on their phones? That is one rude product. And it just screams 2025. MGM also has super high hopes for the economic performance of a separate online crack, er, gambling platform internationally, MGM Digital. 'The equity market volatility' — a polite way to say to say Trump's a catastrophe — 'has provided MGM Resorts with the opportunity to repurchase shares at very attractive valuations in the first quarter,' gushed Jonathan Halkyard, MGM's chief financial officer, in a statement accompanying Wednesday's earnings report. But ah, you say, the first three months of the year don't include April 2, that historic-folkloric 'Liberation Day,' and its accompanying wipeout of retirement funds. No worries. MGM has taken advantage of the harshly intensified 'market volatility' brought on by Liberation Day to spend another $215 million on stock buybacks already in the second quarter. When you have lemons, etc. And the corporation's board has signed off on the company spending yet another $2 billion on buybacks. When a corporation repurchases its own stock, it takes shares off the market, which (usually) puffs up the stock price, benefiting heavy-hitting shareholders and enriching top corporate executives who are pretty heavy stockholders themselves and whose compensation packages are almost always tied to the share price. And the money spent to enrich shareholders (even and especially when prices are rising for consumers) is money that isn't spent on creating new jobs or improving pay and conditions for people who have jobs now. MGM spent $1.4 billion on buybacks in 2024, which followed a whopping $8.2 billion on buybacks between 2019 and 2023. The more than $700 million spent on buybacks already this year, along with the new authorization for $2 billion more, assures that MGM Resorts will continue to do what it has been doing for years: spending more on stock buybacks than Nevada's entire gaming and mining industries pay in gaming and mining taxes combined. As if smashing the world's largest economy wasn't enough, Trump and his enablers are also attempting to curtail or kill multiple programs and services in Nevada, from parts of Medicaid to mental health care to assistance with utility bills to food banks to tribal infrastructure and so much more, while also compromising the federal government's ability to competently and effectively carry out fundamental and crucial tasks, like administering Social Security. Some states will be better equipped than others to protect their residents as federal assistance and funding is withdrawn. Nevada, always a notoriously cheap state when it comes to providing public programs and services, falls in the 'others' category. And Trump's economy is already forcing state lawmakers and the governor to look for places to cut the state budget. As Nevada has shown in prior economic crises, it is incapable of saving public services and programs by itself. For a state that likes to think it sports a libertarian streak, Nevada sure does rely on the federal government a lot. Yes, it's possible things won't be that bad. Maybe somehow Trump, contradicting every bit of his behavior for the last, oh, 20 years, will somehow demonstrate that he is not in point of fact a scatterbrain madman whose chief talent is crowd conning. Maybe industries will decide its safe to invest in the U.S. Maybe prices won't skyrocket. Maybe the economy will stop shrinking and start growing, and everything will be fine. Meanwhile, in the timeline we actually live in, the opposite of all that is more likely. The rosy scenario presented to shareholders by Nevada's most powerful corporation notwithstanding, all signs indicate Nevada is taking another economic nosedive, and state and local governments aren't going to be able to fill the void in basic public services left by Trump's hissy fits masquerading as policy proposals. Nevada, and Nevadans, are going to need some help. Nevada's most widely known motto is 'battle born.' But a far more trenchant if slightly lesser known Nevada motto is 'Now, clearly, is no time to raise the gaming tax.' It's almost as if MGM begs to differ.
News.com.au
30-04-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
US GDP figures fall as imports soar fuelling recession fears
The US economy went backwards in the first three months of 2025 as concerns about tariffs began to bite fuelling recession fears. US President Donald Trump has claimed the slump has 'nothing to do with tariffs' and was instead 'Biden's stock market' and an 'overhang' from the last president. Joe Biden's spokesman clapped back saying the US was heading towards a 'Trumpcession'. But an awkward social media post by Mr Trump from last year has resurfaced where he claimed credit for the economy going gangbusters under Mr Biden. Now he is in office, he insists the negative economic numbers are actually his predecessor's fault. On Wednesday, US time, the nation's Commerce Department stated that US gross domestic product (GDP) had fallen by 0.3 per cent between January and March. That compared to growth of 2.4 per cent in the last three months of 2024. The most recent fall in US GDP was in 2022, during Mr Biden's presidency, when the economy fell by 1 per cent. Two quarters of economic contraction is generally considered a recession. Most analysts have said the downturn in growth is due to a huge uptick in imports ahead of tariffs coming in. Imports have surged by more than 40 per cent as companies stock piled goods ahead of tariffs being imposed which would make them substantially more expensive. Imports count against GDP figures so this upsurge dragged the overall figure down. In contrast, consumer spending and business investment remained in positive territory. Although consumer spending growth does appear to be slowing. And that's' concerning some economists. 'There's a lot of reasons to expect the underlying trends in the US economy to soften,' economist at S & P Global Market Intelligence Ben Herzon told the New York Times. White House blames Biden, cold weather On Wednesday morning, Mr Trump and the White House scrambled to paint a far rosier picture and shift blame away for the president's policies. 'This is Biden's Stock Market, not Trump's. I didn't take over until January 20th,' said Mr Trump on social media. The Commerce Department figures cover more than two months of Mr Trump's president. 'Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers. 'Our country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden 'overhang' 'This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other. 'BE PATIENT!!!,' he urged. The White House blamed the GDP figures on imports as well as cold weather and the Los Angeles wildfires. Awkward Trump social media post from 2024 Mr Trump may well be insisting the current downturn is due to it being 'Biden's stock market,' but an incovenient social media post from January 2024 has resurfaced where Mr Trump, who then wasn't in power, took the credit for a healthy economy. 'This is the Trump stock market,' he wrote on January 29. 'Investors are projecting that I will win and that will drive the market up'. 'Plummeting toward a Trumpcession' Mr Biden's spokesman Andrew Bates rubbished Mr Trump's claims. 'When Joe Biden handed Donald Trump the best-performing economy in the world, experts praised the US for leaving every other wealthy nation 'in the dust,'' he said in a statement. 'Now we're plummeting toward a Trumpcession, 'What happened with the numbers today is that we had a fairly extraordinary surge of imports, driven by the rest of the world trying to get their products in here before the tariffs,' Trump economic adviser Peter Navarro said. 'Next time, that won't be the case at all, and it will reverse,' he says. The White House also claimed that 'core GDP' grew by 3.0 per cent. Core GDP isn't a standard measure but may focus on consumer spending and investment rather than imports. It also said domestic investment 'soared' by 22 per cent. The major US indices all fell upon opening but recovered some losses later in the morning. The Nasdaq was down 1.5 per cent, the S & P 500 by 1.05 per cent and the Dow Jones by 0.74 per cent.
Daily Telegraph
30-04-2025
- Business
- Daily Telegraph
Trump blames Biden as US economy slumps
Don't miss out on the headlines from Economy. Followed categories will be added to My News. The US economy went backwards in the first three months of 2025 as concerns about tariffs began to bite fuelling recession fears. But US President Donald Trump has said the slump has 'nothing to do with tariffs' and was instead an 'overhang' from former president Joe Biden. Mr Biden's spokesman clapped back saying the US was heading towards a 'Trumpcession'. Before he was elected, Mr Trump would take credit for positive US economic news saying it was a sign investors were eager for him to return. US stock markets fell on the economic news. On Wednesday, US time, the nation's Commerce Department stated that US gross domestic product (GDP) had fallen by 0.3 per cent between January and March. That compared to growth of 2.4 per cent in the last three months of 2024. The most recent fall in US GDP was in 2022, during Mr Biden's presidency, when the economy fell by 1 per cent. Two quarters of economic contraction is generally considered a recession. GDP fell 0.3 per cent in the first three months of 2025. Picture: US Commerce Department. Most analysts have said the downturn in growth is due to a huge uptick in imports ahead of tariffs coming in. Imports have surged by more than 40 per cent as companies stock piled goods ahead of tariffs being imposed which would make them substantially more expensive. Imports count against GDP figures so this upsurge dragged the overall figure down. In contrast, consumer spending and business investment remained in positive territory. Although consumer spending growth does appear to be slowing. And that's' concerning some economists. 'There's a lot of reasons to expect the underlying trends in the US economy to soften,' economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence Ben Herzon told the New York Times. President Donald Trump speaks during a cabinet meeting at the White House, Wednesday, April 30, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci) White House blames Biden, cold weather On Wednesday morning, Mr Trump and the White House scrambled to paint a far rosier picture and shift blame away for the president's policies. 'This is Biden's Stock Market, not Trump's. I didn't take over until January 20th,' said Mr Trump on social media. The Commerce Department figures cover more than two months of Mr Trump's president. 'Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers. 'Our country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden 'overhang' 'This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other. 'BE PATIENT!!!,' he urged. The White House blamed the GDP figures on imports as well as 'Biden's economic disaster'. It insisted Mr Trump was 'fuelling an economic boom and setting the stage for unprecedented growth as the president ushers in the new Golden Age'. It said GDP was 'backward looking' and spending was hampered by cold weather and the Los Angeles wildfires. Former US President Joe Biden has rubbished Donald Trump's remarks. (Photo by Tannen MAURY / AFP) 'Plummeting toward a Trumpcession' Mr Biden's spokesman Andrew Bates was having none of it. 'When Joe Biden handed Donald Trump the best-performing economy in the world, experts praised the US for leaving every other wealthy nation 'in the dust,'' he said in a statement. 'Now we're plummeting toward a Trumpcession, A shipping container is lifted off a container ship docked at the Port of Oakland on April 28, 2025 in Oakland, California. Imports has led US GDP to fall. (Photo by JUSTIN SULLIVAN / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP) 'What happened with the numbers today is that we had a fairly extraordinary surge of imports, driven by the rest of the world trying to get their products in here before the tariffs,' Trump economic adviser Peter Navarro said. 'Next time, that won't be the case at all, and it will reverse,' he says. The White House also claimed that 'core GDP' grew by 3.0 per cent. Core GDP isn't a standard measure but may focus on consumer spending and investment rather than imports. It also said domestic investment 'soared' by 22 per cent. The major US indices all fell upon opening but recovered some losses later in the morning. The Nasdaq was down 1.5 per cent, the S&P 500 by 1.05 per cent and the Dow Jones by 0.74 per cent. Originally published as US GDP figures fall as imports soar fuelling recession fears
Yahoo
24-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Editorial: The president loves to slap his name on things. Does he really want a ‘Trumpcession'?
Even before President Donald Trump started his trade wars, McDonald's Corp. top brass knew this year would start sluggishly. Prices are up for food, paper goods and labor, while many of the Chicago-based burger chain's core customers are finding the menu unaffordable. As a result, CEO Chris Kempczinski told investors last month, 'The overall market is pretty muted.' It's the same story for many American businesses, as quarterly financial reports will make obvious in the weeks ahead. CEO optimism has plunged since Trump's tariff shocks, and consumer sentiment alarmingly has followed suit. A Bank of America survey shows that fund managers have slashed their holdings of U.S. stocks. Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve declined to cut interest rates, leaving them at high levels to fight the inflationary effect of Trump's self-defeating trade policies. The Fed also cut its forecast for economic growth. We'd like to think Trump will learn from the bad vibes and market volatility. His broad tariffs are akin to punishing taxes on American consumers, and his arbitrary attacks on close allies undermine a free market that helps keep prices down. As we've said before, Trump needs to listen to Americans, including many who voted for him, and cancel his economic reality show before it sinks the strong-ish economy he inherited from President Joe Biden. Here's the good news: The White House still has plenty of latitude to avoid a 'Trumpcession.' And while sentiment has taken a dive, many business leaders are keeping the faith that Trumpian policies will work out in the long run. All Trump needs to do, contrary to his penchant for sowing chaos, is to settle down and follow through on the more realistic promises he made during his campaign. The rotten start to his second term will be forgiven in corner offices if the president can deliver the tax cuts and hands-off regulatory policies that many business leaders were counting on when they supported him despite reservations about his odious personal history. While Trump's unqualified Cabinet nominees got more attention, he also has tapped experienced executives and hands-off regulators for powerful roles, marking a U-turn from a Biden team viewed as actively hostile to business. The upshot could be a much better environment in Washington for everything from global banks and cryptocurrency vendors to Big Pharma and technology giants. Consider the current capital rules for banks, which tie up a fortune that otherwise could be deployed for growth instead of compliance with layer on layer of bureaucracy. In 15 years since the Dodd-Frank Act, the rules have just kept coming from the Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Treasury Department and 50 state banking offices. Rationalizing those regulations could unleash hundreds of billions in investment dollars now shelved to meet redundant risk-management requirements. Is Trump the man to do it? So far, no. But if he listens to the marketplace, maybe. Similarly, the past decade has witnessed a boom in private investment that built companies of significant value. At the same time, heavy-handed regulation has raised the cost of initial public offerings and discouraged mergers and acquisitions, complicating exit strategies for those investors. Other countries are making changes to encourage IPOs and reduce reporting requirements. Singapore, for instance, enables companies to report semiannually instead of quarterly, and Europe has started down that path as well. For smaller, newer public companies, especially, the result is reduced regulatory costs and more time to focus on business operations. As Loh Boon Chye, leader of Singapore's SGX exchange, notes, 'That's better for companies and investors.' Yet once again, Trump has made matters worse by sparking uncertainty and volatility in the financial markets, which discourages IPOs and dealmaking. Even with a new day dawning at the Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Trade Commission and other agencies that were roadblocks during Biden's era, the changes won't matter unless market conditions settle down. Are you listening, Mr. President? One group is listening, for sure: America's competitors abroad. It is disturbing to see China emerge as a more reliable global trade partner than the U.S. At the same time, Europe is being galvanized into unified action that has eluded it for years, greatly accelerating its previously weak attempts at deregulation, market integration and targeted fiscal spending. While boycotts usually have little long-term effect, the short-term backlash against Trump's aggression is going well beyond Elon Musk's Tesla to other symbols of America. Multinationals like McDonald's already face strong competitors such as A&W in Canada and Greggs in the United Kingdom poised to take advantage of anti-American sentiment. McDonald's is rolling out a 'McValue' menu aimed at reducing sticker shock, teasing the launch of innovative new food items and praying, as its executives told Wall Street last month, that operating conditions gradually improve as the year rolls on. President Trump, it's time to stabilize the economy. The downside risks are rising. Let's eliminate the threat of a 'Trumpcession' before it's too late. Submit a letter, of no more than 400 words, to the editor here or email letters@
