Could Bitcoin Finally Be ‘Mooning'?
Let's be real… if you told a crypto fan six months ago that Bitcoin would go through its halving (which usually kicks off a major price run), get the green light on those shiny new ETFs (so big investors can pile in easily), and STILL be moving sideways in price, they'd probably look at you like you'd just downed three craft beers before midday.
But fast-forward to this weekend and we finally broke through with multiple new all-time highs. Cue the headlines, 'hopium' and hallelujah memes.
Still…the question lingers: why did it take so long?
Because in crypto, the map doesn't always match the land. The on-chain data has been flashing bull-mode for months, but macro conditions - think tight liquidity, sticky interest rates and geopolitical curveballs - have made this one of the weirdest climbs we've seen.
So what's really going on under the surface? What's holding things back (or not)? And is this the lift-off or just another short-term tease?
Here's a look at the current terrain, what's happening under the surface and what might be coming next.
It's not just the memes (but also, yeah... the memes!)
This cycle started strong, then something weird happened: meme coins exploded and they soaked up a ridiculous amount of investor capital and attention. This wasn't new money; in most cases it was the same crowd with the same pool of funds spread across a thousand meme projects with animal names and quite often, questionable roadmaps. This caused a kind of liquidity dilution (not a crash, just a splatter).
That alone might've been fine, but then the macro fog rolled in…
We've got oil shocks, trade scuffles and a political backdrop that looks like a badly written reboot of 2020 (mask, anyone?). And did we mention a sitting U.S. President who can swing Bitcoin 10% with a tweet! Suddenly, we're in choppy waters.
And let's not forget: crypto is no longer the Wild West. In the background, Crypto has been growing up. Regulation is here or is coming (slowly, awkwardly, but it's here). That changes how the game is played and who's playing it.
Why M2 matters…and what happens when it gets skinny
You'll hear traders throw around terms like 'M2 is expanding as if everyone has done their PhD in central bank lingo. Let's decode that. M2 is basically the global measure of how much cash and near-cash (like savings accounts and short-term deposits) is moving around the global financial system. To fight off the inflation caused by the central banks splurge during Covid, we found many central banks going into restrictive mode. That meant central banks were literally pulling liquidity (money supply) out of the system to cool inflation. It's the monetary version of hitting the brakes and it means there's less easy money floating around looking for a home… including in crypto.
The good news is we appear to be past now and global M2 has been expanding. When that meaningfully flows through, there is more money to spend, more risk appetite and as a result people feel flush and they turn to investments. As a result, crypto rallies. Global Macro Investor calls this a leading indicator for Bitcoin
What could push us higher from here?
If you're looking for a spark, don't look at the halving chart…look to the infrastructure being built beneath the price.
Let's talk stablecoins… These are quietly becoming the new internet plumbing. All that money we talked about (the M2 we mentioned) is looking for a home and stablecoins is one of them (supply is up 28% in 2025). Think cheaper, faster digital dollars moving through the digital economy in real time. And when the whole world figures out they can settle payments without bank fees or delays - that's when this thing scales.
Let's talk regulatory certainty …. Some investors care about this stuff. And when the SEC and other regulators were going after crypto it spooked them. But we have major changes of the guard going on now and that means permission; and with permission… Well, you do your own research.
Let's talk ETFs… These are regulated, publicly listed products that allow everyday investors including retirees and boomers who aren't wiring funds to crypto exchanges to get exposure to Bitcoin without touching a wallet. That's a big deal because it's slow-moving but powerful money. (Billions have already flown in, which means even the suits on Wall Street are no longer just watching - but they trade around macro events, not hedge against them. This messes with the normal rhythm.)
And the sleeper trend is tokenised stocks… These real-world assets like gold, shares and maybe even property - wrapped into tradable crypto tokens - are sitting at the grown-up table and it's filling up fast.
The bottom line is the rails are being laid and once global liquidity loosens (i.e., the money printers slowly warm back up), the assets ready to scale will move first and the fastest.
Read the map, but watch your step
This cycle is evolving daily. That makes it harder to predict but also way more interesting to play. Zoom out and pay attention to who's building, not just who's shouting. Stay nimble, too, because just like in real exploration, the conditions on the ground will beat your map every time.
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