Keir Starmer's realignment with Europe will be a low-key one
Talk of veterinary agreements, 'Canada-plus' and rules of origin are likely to give even the most hardened Westminster veteran terrifying flashbacks. There was once a time when a word from Tory Eurosceptic Bill Cash on dynamic alignment could splash national newspapers.
Now the more common reaction to those terms is a barely stifled yawn. And that is exactly how No 10 would like it to stay.
There are those in the Labour party who would like to see Keir Starmer embrace a more romantic pro-European story, to extol the UK's European values and solidarity, as a counter to the views of Donald Trump.
But that is not this prime minister's style. So there will be a more ambitious EU reset but in the most low-key way possible. The aim in Downing Street is to Make Brussels Boring Again.
It seems fertile ground for the UK to seek closer trade ties with Brussels, and within No 10 there is a will to do it, as long as the words 'single market', 'customs union' and 'freedom of movement' do not appear anywhere.
There are three key reasons why the UK can think bolder. The first is the most obvious: the international turmoil caused by both the US's wildly wavering support for Ukraine and by Trump's tariffs has made Brussels a far more willing partner in the coming negotiations.
Secondly, the Brexit dinosaurs are mostly gone from the House of Commons. In their place are an army of Labour millennials eager to vote through closer ties with Europe, though there are some who will wobble in their 'red wall' seats with Reform snapping at their heels. But Brussels need have no fear – as it once did – about the instability of the UK parliament.
And there has been a significant shift in public opinion on Brexit that suggests people are more open to closer ties with Europe. Some of that is simply because of population turnover – according to the Economist, two-thirds of the people who have died since 2020 supported leaving the EU.
But each of these three factors have their downsides. Starmer has to tread carefully as he negotiates to remove US trade barriers.
It is debatable whether the UK really received lower tariffs than the EU because of a desire for preferential treatment, but it is still a tightrope to walk with such an unpredictable White House inhabitant. It would be advantageous to do an agreement with the US before a deal with the EU.
In parliament, the government is worried that its new Labour MPs will get too excited about Europe and begin to crow publicly about how the reset shows how wrong the Brexiters really were. Any kind of language like that is likely to be stamped on hard.
And Starmer may have ejected Jacob Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker from parliament but he has a very effective foe in Nigel Farage.
Some in government believe Farage will ultimately show little interest in what the government does on border sanitary checks – perhaps even he is bored of shouting 'Brexit betrayal' or realises it is lower salience than immigration or net zero.
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But the youth visa scheme, which is likely to be agreed as part of the talks, has the potential to spiral.
While public support for Brexit may be dropping, polls show the issue is a very low priority for voters, despite what pro-European campaigners would like to think. There could be a major polling backlash if the issue is likely to be seen to dominate the government's agenda.
And the drop in support for leave does not tell the full story. Downing Street sources say from their focus groups that this is not the people who say they regret voting leave. The blame is laid at the feet of the Tories who negotiated the last deal.
This is how Starmer will frame his eventual EU reset, fixing the mess of the negotiation he will say was left by Boris Johnson's government.
There will even be language that will infuriate some pro-European MPs, that forging smoother trade with Europe is a 'Brexit benefit', that the UK can be more flexible with its powerful neighbour.
But the strategy over the coming weeks and months will be to push for the most ambitious deal possible in the most unromantic terms possible.
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