Pollster awkwardly admits she was wrong about 2024 election and Trump in humbling on-air confession
Kristen Soltis Anderson acknowledged her mistake during a conversation with former NBC anchor Chuck Todd on his podcast Monday.
'The thing that has been the most surprising is someone like me, eight years ago, was completely hair-on-fire that [Trump] is going to take everything our party has been doing to try to win over young voters or voters of color, and he is lighting it all on fire and it is going to be unrecoverable,' she said.
'And now, if I am a person that follows the data, now you have to acknowledge that those are the very groups that he put his reelection - he built it on those groups. And he did better with Latino voters. He did better with younger voters than any Republican has in 20 years.
'And that's really remarkable,' she said.
Trump also increased his share of Latino voters substantially compared to his loss in 2020. Factors like inflation and policies surrounding the border were widely thought to be to blame. Identity politics also played a part, several said.
In 2015, the prominent New York Times opinion writer wrote how she was 'cautiously optimistic' that the Republican Party could win back young voters after two terms of Barack Obama.
In 2015, the prominent New York Times opinion writer wrote how she was 'cautiously optimistic' that the Republican Party could win back young voters after two terms of Barack Obama, though without someone like Trump (seen here during his first term)
Trump had announced his candidacy for president mere months before, with few giving him a chance.
Anderson, the cofounder of opinion research firm Echelon Insights, called out Republicans at the time for what she saw as a failure to earn followings on social media.
She also predicted at the time that since many Republicans belong to demographics on the decline - white, married, and religious - they would soon lose influence.
'Being a party of reforming, rather than necessarily getting rid of the government altogether, presents opportunity for a pragmatic generation,' she told the Harvard Kennedy School's Center on Media Politics and Public Policy.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Glasgow Times
3 hours ago
- Glasgow Times
Donald Trump to open resort's second golf course on final day in Scotland
The US president's fifth day in Scotland on Tuesday follows a meeting and press conference with Sir Keir Starmer on Monday. Mr Trump will cut the ribbon on a second 18-hole course at his resort in Menie, Aberdeenshire before he flies back to the US on Air Force One. Sir Keir Starmer and Mr Trump flew to Aberdeenshire from Turnberry on Marine One (Jane Barlow/PA) The president has played several rounds of golf during his Scottish trip, teeing off at his other resort in Turnberry, Ayrshire, on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. As they met at Turnberry for bilateral talks on trade and the situation in Gaza, Mr Trump and Sir Keir took part in what proved to be a lengthy press conference, with the president discussing a number of topics. The Republican Party leader spoke of his 'great love' for Scotland and said he wanted to see the nation 'thrive'. He returned to his long-running objections to wind turbines, branding them 'ugly monsters' and speaking of his admiration for North Sea oil and gas. Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump shake hands at Turnberry (Chris Furlong/PA) Discussing the war in Ukraine, Mr Trump said he was 'very disappointed' in Russian President Vladimir Putin and suggested he would bring forward a deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire. The US president called Sir Sadiq Khan a 'nasty person', which prompted Sir Keir to come to the defence of his 'friend' the London Mayor. Construction of the new course in Menie began in 2023, with Mr Trump and his son Eric breaking ground on the project. Mr Trump hosted a dinner on Monday evening (Jane Barlow/PA) Trump International Scotland claims the two courses will be the 'greatest 36 holes in golf'. The second course is expected to be dedicated to the president's mother, Mary Anne MacLeod, who was born on the Isle of Lewis. Critics say the Trump developments in Scotland have not delivered as many jobs as promised and work at the Menie site has caused environmental damage. Mr Trump and Sir Keir landed at Menie aboard Marine One, the president's helicopter, which was seen circling the new course before it touched down on Monday evening. People take part in a protest in the village of Balmedie during Donald Trump's visit (Jane Barlow/PA) The president then hosted a dinner at Menie with members of his family and guests including Scottish First Minister John Swinney. A demonstration took place in Balmedie, near the resort, on Monday. A small number of protesters sat at the roadside in the centre of the village, surrounded by cardboard signs bearing anti-Trump slogans.
The Independent
3 hours ago
- The Independent
Higher US tariffs part of the price Europe was willing to pay for its security and arms for Ukraine
France's prime minister described it as a 'dark day' for the European Union, a 'submission' to U.S. tariff demands. Commentators said EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen's handshake with President Donald Trump amounted to capitulation. The trouble is, Europe depends mightily on the United States, and not just for trade. Mirroring Trump, Von der Leyen gushed that the arrangement she endorsed over the weekend to set U.S. tariff levels on most European exports to 15%, which is 10% higher than currently, was 'huge.' Her staff texted reporters insisting that the pact, which starts to enter force on Friday, is the 'biggest trade deal ever.' A month after NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte ingratiated himself with Trump by referring to him as 'daddy,' the Europeans had again conceded that swallowing the costs and praising an unpredictable president is more palatable than losing America. 'It's not only about the trade. It's about security. It's about Ukraine. It's about current geopolitical volatility. I cannot go into all the details,' EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič told reporters Monday. 'I can assure you it was not only about the trade,' he insisted, a day after 'the deal' was sealed in an hour-long meeting once Trump finished playing a round of golf with his son at the course he owns in Scotland. The state of Europe's security dependency Indeed, Europe depends on the U.S. for its security and that security is anything but a game, especially since Russia invaded Ukraine. U.S. allies are convinced that, should he win, President Vladimir Putin is likely to take aim at one of them next. So high are these fears that European countries are buying U.S. weapons to help Ukraine to defend itself. Some are prepared to send their own air defense systems and replace them with U.S. equipment, once it can be delivered. 'We're going to be sending now military equipment and other equipment to NATO, and they'll be doing what they want, but I guess it's for the most part working with Ukraine,' Trump said Sunday, sounding ambivalent about America's role in the alliance. The Europeans also are wary about a U.S. troop drawdown, which the Pentagon is expected to announce by October. Around 84,000 U.S. personnel are based in Europe, and they guarantee NATO's deterrent effect against an adversary like Russia. At the same time, Trump is slapping duties on America's own NATO partners, ostensibly due to concerns about U.S. security interests, using Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, a logic that seems absurd from across the Atlantic. Weaning Europe off foreign suppliers 'The EU is in a difficult situation because we're very dependent on the U.S. for security,' said Niclas Poitiers at the Bruegel research institution in Brussels. 'Ukraine is a very big part of that, but also generally our defense is underwritten by NATO.' 'I think there was not a big willingness to pick a major fight, which is the one (the EU) might have needed with the U.S.' to better position itself on trade, Poitiers told The Associated Press about key reasons for von der Leyen to accept the tariff demands. Part of the agreement involves a commitment to buy American oil and gas. Over the course of the Russia-Ukraine war, now in its fourth year, most of the EU has slashed its dependence on unreliable energy supplies from Russia, but Hungary and Slovakia still have not. 'Purchases of U.S. energy products will diversify our sources of supply and contribute to Europe's energy security. We will replace Russian gas and oil with significant purchases of U.S. LNG, oil and nuclear fuels,' von der Leyen said in Scotland on Sunday. In essence, as Europe slowly weans itself off Russian energy it is also struggling to end its reliance on the United States for its security. The Trump administration has warned its priorities now lie elsewhere, in Asia, the Middle East and on its own borders. That was why European allies agreed at NATO's summit last month to spend hundreds of billions of dollars more on defense over the next decade. Primarily for their own security, but also to keep America among their ranks. The diplomacy involved was not always elegant. 'Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be your win,' Rutte wrote in a private text message to Trump, which the U.S. leader promptly posted on social media. Rutte brushed off questions about potential embarrassment or concern that Trump had aired it, saying: 'I have absolutely no trouble or problem with that because there's nothing in it which had to stay secret.' A price Europe feels it must pay Von der Leyen did not appear obsequious in her meeting with Trump. She often stared at the floor or smiled politely. She did not rebut Trump when he said that only America is sending aid to Gaza. The EU is world's biggest supplier of aid to the Palestinians. With Trump's threat of 30% tariffs hanging over European exports — whether real or brinksmanship is hard to say — and facing the prospect of a full-blown trade dispute while Europe's biggest war in decades rages, 15% may have been a cheap price to pay. 'In terms of the economic impact on the EU economy itself, it will be negative,' Poitiers said. 'But it's not something that is on a comparable magnitude like the energy crisis after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, or even COVID.' 'This is a negative shock for our economy, but it is something that's very manageable,' he said. It remains an open question as to how long this entente will last. ___
Telegraph
3 hours ago
- Telegraph
Starmer's charm is lost on Britain, but he has won Trump's heart
You couldn't help but get the impression that Trump found opening a new golf course at least as important as running a country. I can't actually recall any past president combining the launch of his own private business venture with the office of the presidency in this fashion but there we are. It's a new world order. He did make the point in his celebratory speech that stopping a war was, after all, rather more valuable an achievement than creating a golf course so perhaps that's reassuring. What had become clear once again on this visit – which had been described as a private holiday but was, in fact, the scene of some major diplomatic developments – was that our own dear Prime Minister was far and away the US president's favourite foreign leader. We must, of course, be grateful for this fact even if we do find it totally mystifying. Sir Keir's charm may be lost on the home audience but he is the undoubted favourite of the Trump White House and this is not solely because he is the messenger for our Royal family whom the president obviously adores. No, it is the Starmer personality itself which appears to have won Trump's heart. Why? My own guess, borrowing on my recollection of American responses to various brands of foreign behaviour is that Starmer's personality represents what Americans tend to regard as quintessential Britishness: a preternatural calmness in the face of difficulties (which is to say, a face that remains expressionless at all times) and a sycophantic courtesy which somehow manages to remain dignified. We got a hint of this when Trump referred to Sir Keir's 'beautiful accent'. Perhaps the contrast with the Macron vanity and arrogance has helped too, but whatever it is, we must acknowledge that the Starmer magic has pulled off a pretty favourable result. And ironically enough, it is precisely our separateness from the European Union – which Sir Keir is trying to undo – that made this favoured position possible. Rather less happily for the Starmer government, the president offered some advice on how to pull the UK out of its spiral of decline. Stop the boats and cut taxes was the magic formula, Mr Trump suggested presumably in a spirit of helpfulness. The problem with this counsel is that both those things are almost impossible to achieve at the moment and they are, as it happens, precisely what the most threatening Opposition parties are urging. That was rather tactless and it suggests that this alliance with Trump's Right-wing Republicanism is not going to be an easy ride. But whatever it was in Starmer's approach that did it, he is currently able to influence the Trump White House at a time when global affairs are dangerously inflamed. That may or may not be an enviable position to be in. On the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as the economic future of the West, the moral responsibility of being the 'Trump whisperer' is going to be daunting.
