Australia's warship selection signals Japanese defense industry's arrival

Japan Times

4 days ago

Australia's decision to select a Japanese warship for its next frigate class could prove to be a watershed moment for Japan's defense industry as Tokyo strives for greater military cooperation and industrial tie-ups with allies and partners.
Despite challenges ahead, the successful bid will not only serve as a confidence booster, but also support Japan's efforts to become a larger arms provider across the wider Asia-Pacific region, experts say, as the planned sale of upgraded Mogami-class frigates — and its successful implementation — could set a favorable precedent for other countries to consider major Japanese capabilities for their own militaries.
'That Japan now has a major capability export agreement to point to as something of a 'proof of concept' will definitely help boost its status as a serious regional defense-industrial player,' said Tom Corben, a defense and foreign policy expert at the United States Studies Center.
This will especially be the case with countries Tokyo is already in defense export discussions with, such as Indonesia, India and the Philippines.
That said, other countries may want to see whether Japan can deliver on the ambitious delivery schedule it has set out for the first three Australian frigates, and the extent to which Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) can successfully localize onward production in Australia, before fully committing to any similar deals, he added.
The successful bid also highlights how far the Japanese industry has come since its failed submarine bid to Australia in 2016, and how critical close cooperation with the government has become to succeeding on the international defense market.
High stakes for Tokyo and MHI
Tokyo's interest in boosting military exports comes as maintaining a robust defense industry has been recognized as a matter of national security for Japan, as its defense-industrial capacity must be able to meet a rapid increase in demand to sustain involvement in a conflict, particularly given the current volatile international security environment.
Should Japan lose its capacity to develop cutting-edge tech, it could eventually become fully dependent on foreign governments and industries.
Observers say that for the Mogami export to become the Japanese industry's envisaged breakthrough, MHI would need to make at least some profit while delivering on time, within budget and with effective partnering with Australian shipyard Austal for eventual production near Perth.
'Working for a customer other than the Japanese Defense Ministry is a big change for MHI, and partnering with another defense-industrial firm is relatively new, too,' said James Schoff, a defense expert at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA. Consistent effort and leadership attention will be needed over the course of the program to make it successful, he added.
The Mogami export will mark Tokyo's second participation in a major international defense project without direct involvement from the United States, Japan's sole provider of advanced weapons for a long time, following the launch of the Global Combat Air Program alongside Britain and Italy .
Hirohito Ogi, a defense strategy expert at the International House of Japan (IHJ), a Tokyo-based think tank, believes the Indo-Pacific region will see more of such 'symmetrical collaborations' going forward as Washington alone cannot provide all the major weapons to its allies in a timely manner — a development that has prompted Tokyo to expand and strengthen its network of international security partners.
The upcoming deal with Australia, Ogi added, could also further motivate other Japanese companies to seek similar opportunities in the future as they gain confidence and seek to overcome their comparative inexperience in delivering on large-capability contracts for customers other than the Self-Defense Forces.
Bringing something else to the table
Experts point out that to become competitive against other more-established defense exporters such as the United States, Russia, France and South Korea, Japan will need to think through how to make itself as attractive a partner choice as possible.
Tokyo could do this in a number of ways, said Corben. This includes offering lucrative technology-sharing arrangements with customer countries, localizing production and incorporating domestic suppliers from the customer country into the capability's supply chain, and ensuring that Japan's own production capacity can reliably meet regional demand right now, not just next decade.
​Conversely, Tokyo will want to avoid the same capacity constraints, delivery delays and restrictive technology-sharing procedures that have progressively undermined the appeal of U.S. arms sales to many regional countries, even if what the United States has to offer is frequently best in class.
A mock model of an upgraded Mogami-class frigate is displayed during the Defense Security Equipment International Japan at Makuhari Messe in the city of Chiba on May 21. |
Reuters
In that respect, Japan may not always be able to offer the most advanced form of any specific military capability, but it can ensure that what it can offer is more than sufficient in terms of capability, and that it is delivered quickly, Corben said.
One of the biggest lessons for Japan going forward would, therefore, be the need to fully understand the operational concepts of customer countries and provide products that can satisfy their demands, with experts pointing to growing collaboration opportunities not only with Australia, but across Asia and with Europe.
Part of the cooperation opportunities with Australia could be linked to the partners' growing force posture, for instance, by ensuring that Australian and Japanese shipyards are capable of conducting routine and deep maintenance, repair and overhaul on one another's warships.
Ideally, Corben said, there will also be opportunities for best-in-class Australian technologies to be integrated onto the Mogami and potentially shared with Japan for its own fleet.
That could include items such as sonar, torpedo design and other undersea warfare capabilities in which Australia has a strong track record, but also things such as unmanned underwater vessels and undersea communications in which Australian and Japanese defense scientists are already collaborating.
Long-range and surface-to-air systems could also be another potential area, especially as European countries are keen on acquiring air-defense assets, which could provide an alternative to the U.S.-made systems.
'The Japanese government should permit these deals under the current arms export regulations. And I believe it can, using the category of joint developments and production as it did for the Australian frigate case,' Ogi said.
Tokyo's plans to boost cooperation with Europe are already underway, with defense-industrial talks set to be launched soon with not only individual countries, but also with NATO and the European Union as the partners seek to study one another's defense markets and industrial and technological capabilities while looking for areas of common interest.
But some say probably the best opportunities for Japan's defense industry lie in South and Southeast Asia, where interoperability with U.S. systems is just as important.
Challenges abound
Yet while Australia's Mogami selection signals Japan's arrival on the international defense market, experts warn about a number of challenges ahead such as capacity and innovation issues.
For instance, Schoff said, Japan's defense industry needs to keep innovating to keep pace with modern defense trends toward more autonomous systems and the incorporation of artificial intelligence and software tools.
'Military platforms need to be upgradable and relatively flexible over their hardware lifespan, but to date, this has not been a strength of Japan's defense industry," he said.
Moreover, it's unclear whether there will be an immediate political push to further ease Japan's arms export rules.
Naoko Aoki, a Japan expert and political scientist at the Rand Corp., does not foresee an immediate movement to ease the rules further, arguing that this requires a lot of political capital and there is political uncertainty in Japan at the moment.
At the same time, Corben doesn't rule out that if demand for Japanese capabilities continues to increase, further reforms not only to Japan's defense-export regulations, but also defense-industrial policies, could be made, 'especially if they can't keep pace with new export requirements.'