US stocks pie in global flows has plunged in 2025: BofA
Bank of America Corporation
said, as the trade war raises doubts about so-called American exceptionalism.
US stock funds attracted just under half of total flows so far this year, compared with 72% in 2024, the
BofA
team said in a note, citing figures from EPFR Global. Foreign inflows slowed to less than $2 billion in the past three months from $34 billion in January.
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President Donald Trump's erratic trade policy, a ballooning fiscal deficit and a slumping dollar have strained investor enthusiasm for American assets. While the S&P 500 has recovered from an April low after Trump paused the harshest tariffs in a century, the benchmark still trails international peers this year.
Some asset managers have warned that the US has ceased to be a secure destination for foreign investors because of political risks posed by the Trump administration. A recent tech-led rebound in the S&P 500 to fresh records suggest investors are too complacent about the economic impact of higher tariffs, forecasters at UBS Group AG said this week.
Markets have also quickly shaken off the latest signs of rising tension between the President and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Trump, who has repeatedly called for the central bank to lower borrowing costs, has discussed the possibility of firing the Fed chief with Republican lawmakers.
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BofA strategist Michael Hartnett said in Friday's note that investors were "front running" a Fed capitulation on interest rates. He reiterated his view that a bubble was brewing in
US stocks
, and that the clearest sign of this would be if the market ignored an increase in inflation expectations and bond yields hitting new highs.
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The Hindu
15 minutes ago
- The Hindu
U.S.-EU trade deal wards off further escalation but will raise costs for companies, consumers
President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have announced a sweeping trade deal that imposes 15% tariffs on most European goods, warding off Mr. Trump's threat of a 30% rate if no deal had been reached by August 1. The tariffs, or import taxes, paid when Americans buy European products could raise prices for U.S. consumers and dent profits for European companies and their partners who bring goods into the country. Here are some things to know about the trade deal between the United States and the European Union: What's in the agreement? Mr. Trump and Ms. von der Leyen's announcement, made during Mr. Trump's visit to one of his golf courses in Scotland, leaves many details to be filled in. The headline figure is a 15% tariff rate on 'the vast majority' of European goods brought into the US, including cars, computer chips and pharmaceuticals. It's lower than the 20% Mr. Trump initially proposed, and lower than his threats of 50% and then 30%. Ms. von der Leyen said the two sides agreed on zero tariffs on a range of 'strategic' goods: Aircraft and aircraft parts, certain chemicals, semiconductor equipment, certain agricultural products, and some natural resources and critical raw materials. Specifics were lacking. She said the two sides 'would keep working' to add more products to the list. Additionally, the EU side would purchase what Mr. Trump said was $750 billion worth of natural gas, oil and nuclear fuel to replace Russian energy supplies, and Europeans would invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S.. What's not in the deal? Mr. Trump said the 50% U.S. tariff on imported steel would remain; Ms. von der Leyen said the two sides agreed to further negotiations to fight a global steel glut, reduce tariffs and establish import quotas — that is, set amounts that can be imported, often at a lower rate. Mr. Trump said pharmaceuticals were not included in the deal. Ms. von der Leyen said the pharmaceuticals issue was 'on a separate sheet of paper' from Sunday's (July 27, 2025) deal. Where the $600 billion for additional investment would come from was not specified. And Ms. von der Leyen said that when it came to farm products, the EU side made clear that 'there were tariffs that could not be lowered,' without specifying which products. What's the impact? The 15% rate removes Mr. Trump's threat of a 30% tariff. It's still much higher than the average tariff before Mr. Trump came into office of around 1%, and higher than Mr. Trump's minimum 10% baseline tariff. Higher tariffs, or import taxes, on European goods mean sellers in the U.S. would have to either increase prices for consumers — risking loss of market share — or swallow the added cost in terms of lower profits. The higher tariffs are expected to hurt export earnings for European firms and slow the economy. The 10% baseline applied while the deal was negotiated was already sufficiently high to make the European Union's executive commission cut its growth forecast for this year from 1.3% to 0.9%. Ms. Von der Leyen said the 15% rate was 'the best we could do' and credited the deal with maintaining access to the US market and providing 'stability and predictability for companies on both sides.' What is some of the reaction to the deal? German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed the deal, which avoided 'an unnecessary escalation in transatlantic trade relations" and said that 'we were able to preserve our core interests,' while adding that 'I would have very much wished for further relief in transatlantic trade.' The Federation of German Industries was blunter. "Even a 15% tariff rate will have immense negative effects on export-oriented German industry," said Wolfgang Niedermark, a member of the federation's leadership. While the rate is lower than threatened, "the big caveat to today's deal is that there is nothing on paper, yet," said Carsten Brzeski, global chief of macro at ING bank. 'With this disclaimer in mind and at face value, today's agreement would clearly bring an end to the uncertainty of recent months. An escalation of the US-EU trade tensions would have been a severe risk for the global economy," Mr. Brzeski said. 'This risk seems to have been avoided.' What about car companies? Asked if European carmakers could still sell cars at 15%, Ms. von der Leyen said the rate was much lower than the current 27.5%. That has been the rate under Mr. Trump's 25% tariff on cars from all countries, plus the preexisting U.S. car tariff of 2.5%. The impact is likely to be substantial on some companies, given that automaker Volkswagen said it suffered a $1.5 billion hit to profit in the first half of the year from the higher tariffs. Mercedes-Benz dealers in the US have said they are holding the line on 2025 model year prices 'until further notice.' The German automaker has a partial tariff shield because it makes 35% of the Mercedes-Benz vehicles sold in the U.S. in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, but the company said it expects prices to undergo 'significant increases' in coming years. What were the issues dividing the two sides? Before Mr. Trump returned to office, the U.S. and the EU maintained generally low tariff levels in what is the largest bilateral trading relationship in the world, with some USD 2 trillion in annual trade. Together, the U.S. and the EU have 44% of the global economy. The U.S. rate averaged 1.47% for European goods, while the EU's averaged 1.35% for American products, according to the Bruegel think tank in Brussels. Mr. Trump has complained about the EU's 198 billion-euro trade surplus in goods, which shows Americans buy more from European businesses than the other way around, and has said the European market is not open enough for U.S.-made cars. However, American companies fill some of the trade gap by outselling the EU when it comes to services such as cloud computing, travel bookings, and legal and financial services. And some 30% of European imports are from American-owned companies, according to the European Central Bank.
Mint
15 minutes ago
- Mint
Indian stock market: 7 key things that changed over weekend - Gift Nifty, US-European Union trade deal to gold prices
Indian stock market: The domestic equity market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open on muted note on Monday, following mixed cues from global markets. Asian markets traded mixed, while the US stock market ended higher last week, with the US stock futures rising after President Donald Trump signed a framework trade agreement with the European Union. This week, investors will focus on key stock market triggers, including on developments in the US-India trade deal, US Federal Reserve meeting, auto sales data, IPO activity, Q1 results, trends in crude oil prices and other key domestic and global economic data. On Friday, the Indian stock market ended sharply lower, extending losses for the second consecutive session. The Sensex crashed 721.08 points, or 0.88%, to close at 81,463.09, while the Nifty 50 settled 225.10 points, or 0.90%, lower at 24,837.00. 'We expect the market to remain in consolidation mode amid continued uncertainty around India-US trade deal, a mixed Q1FY26 earnings season so far and intensifying FII outflows,' said Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Here are key global market cues for Sensex today: Asian markets traded mixed on Monday as investors await more details of the US-China trade talks. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.52% while the Topix index declined 0.44%. South Korea's Kospi index dropped 0.11% while the Kosdaq was flat. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index futures indicated a stronger opening. Gift Nifty was trading around 24,86 level, a discount of nearly 14 points from the Nifty futures' previous close, indicating a muted start for the Indian stock market indices. US stock market ended higher on Friday amid optimism over the US-European Union trade deal, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching record high closes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.47% to 44,901.92, while the S&P 500 rose 0.40% to end at 6,388.64. The Nasdaq closed 0.24% higher at 21,108.32. For the week, the S&P 500 rallied 1.5%, the Nasdaq gained 1% and the Dow surged 1.3%. Tesla share price rallied 3.52%, Deckers Outdoor shares jumped 11%, while Intel stock price tanked 8.5%. Charter Communications shares slumped 18% and Paramount Global stock dropped 1.6%. Centene shares rose 6.1%. The US struck a framework trade agreement with the European Union, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods. US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the deal, which will be effective from August 1. The US dollar eased, while the euro gained following the US-European Union trade deal. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against major peers, fell 0.1% to 97.534. The dollar was little changed at 147.68 yen. The euro stood at $1.1763, up 0.2%, while Sterling traded at $1.34385, down almost 0.1%. Gold prices fell to their lowest in nearly two weeks, as a framework trade agreement between the United States and European Union reduced appetite for safe-haven assets, Reuters reported. Spot gold price fell 0.1% to $3,332.39 per ounce, after touching its lowest level since July 17, while US gold futures eased 0.1% to $3,332.50. Crude oil prices rose after the US reached a trade deal with the European Union and may extend a tariff pause with China. Brent crude futures gained 0.34% to $68.67 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $65.37 a barrel, up 0.32%. (With inputs from Reuters) Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Mint
15 minutes ago
- Mint
Indian rupee, bond markets cautious in week dominated by Fed, tariffs
By Dharamraj Dhutia and Jaspreet Kalra MUMBAI, July 28 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee and government bonds will react to a host of cues this week, including a U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision and the August 1 reciprocal tariff deadline, which is likely to keep traders cautious. The rupee closed at 86.5150 against the U.S. dollar on Friday, down 0.4% on the week, as foreign portfolio outflows and uncertainty over a U.S.-India trade agreement kept sentiment tepid. While the Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday, investors will pay close attention to commentary from Fed Chair Powell to gauge the outlook for U.S. policy rates. "As long as the jobs picture holds up, firmer inflation may well delay the restart of the Fed easing cycle and provide the dollar with a lift this summer," ING said in a note. Later in the week, data on the U.S. labour market will be in focus alongside an inflation print to gauge how tariffs are affecting the world's largest economy. Meanwhile, the deadline to strike trade deals with the U.S. elapses on August 1. Over the weekend, the United States and the European Union announced a deal, which will result in a 15% tariff on EU goods, half what Trump had threatened to impose from August 1. Japan and the European Union have reached agreements with U.S., alongside others such as Indonesia and Vietnam, even as India's negotiations have appeared to run into roadblocks over key sectors such as dairy and agriculture. Traders reckon that the rupee will continue to hold a slightly bearish bias and hover in a 86.30-87 range in the near term. Heightened risk of "news-led price action" should prompt speculators to keep positions small with tight stop-losses, a trader at a foreign bank said. Meanwhile, India's 10-year benchmark 6.33% 2035 bond yield , which settled last week at 6.3505%, is expected to move in a range of 6.31% to 6.38%. Apart from the Fed guidance, focus will also remain on expectations about any potential rate cut in the RBI's upcoming policy decision, due on August 6. A plunge in India's retail inflation to a more-than-six-year low in June, along with expectations that it will slip to a record low in July, has led to increased talks of a rate cut, with some even expecting action next week. The central bank slashed its key interest rate by a steeper-than-expected 50 bps last month and changed its policy stance to "neutral" from "accommodative", which had fueled speculation that the rate cut cycle may be over. Banks will also gauge the liquidity situation and movement in overnight rates after a volatile last week, which saw rates rising beyond the Marginal Standing Facility rate. Foreign investors have been on the buying side, with net purchases of over 100 billion rupees in the last five weeks, as bets of at least one more rate cut have risen. India's fundamental story remains intact. Inflation is under control and fiscal health is in check, and India is one of the large benchmark weights within the JPMorgan emerging market debt index, said Jean-Charles Sambor, head of emerging markets debt at TT International Asset Management. "We think that fundamentals will remain very attractive for foreign investors." KEY EVENTS: India ** June fiscal deficit - July 28, Monday (3:30 p.m. IST) ** June industrial output - July 28, Monday (4:00 p.m. IST)(Reuters poll - 2.4%) ** July HSBC manufacturing PMI - August 1, Friday (10:30 a.m.) U.S. ** July consumer confidence - July 29, Tuesday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** April-June GDP advance - July 30, Wednesday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** Federal Reserve monetary policy decision - July 30, Wednesday (11:30 p.m. IST)(Reuters poll - rates unchanged) ** Initial weekly jobless claims for week to July 21 - July 31, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** June personal consumption expenditure index, core PCE index - July 31, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** July non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate - August 1, Friday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** July S&P Global manufacturing PMI final - August 1, Friday (7:15 p.m. IST) ** July ISM manufacturing PMI - August 1, Friday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** July U Mich sentiment final - August 1, Friday (7:30 p.m. IST) (Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia and Jaspreet Kalra; Editing by Vijay Kishore)
