logo
Official India jobless data is not accurate, say top independent economists: Poll

Official India jobless data is not accurate, say top independent economists: Poll

Economic Times5 days ago
Synopsis
A Reuters poll reveals independent economists doubt India's official unemployment rate, suggesting the true figure is much higher. Despite India's rapid economic growth, job creation lags, causing discontent. Experts criticize outdated job definitions and call for policies focused on manufacturing, education, and skills to generate quality employment and address wage stagnation.
Agencies Representative Image The Indian government's unemployment data is inaccurate and masks the severity of joblessness and underemployment, according to a Reuters poll of independent economists, several of whom said the true jobless rate is around twice the official figure. India is the world's fastest-growing major economy at an annual rate of 7.4% in the January-March quarter, but so far growth has failed to create enough well-paying jobs for the millions of young people entering the workforce each year. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government is now more than one year into a third term after losing a commanding majority, partly blamed on discontent among youth over their future prospects. Over 70% of independent economists polled over the last month, 37 of 50, said the official unemployment rate, at 5.6% in June, is inaccurate. In a Reuters survey last year most economists flagged chronic joblessness as the government's biggest challenge. Experts say outdated definitions of what constitutes a job in a country of more than 1.4 billion people are distorting the true scale of unemployment and underemployment.
"The whole thing to me is really throwing dust in your eyes. You say this is the unemployment rate, the growth rate - quite often, they don't make much sense. We have a massive employment problem and that is not reflected in the data," said Pranab Bardhan, professor emeritus of economics at the University of California, Berkeley. "Most Indian workers are underemployed. If you are able-bodied and you did not work for any time, not even one hour in the last six months, unless you are rich, how did you feed yourself?... So you scrounge around and do something. And then you are employed. Now what does that employment mean?" asked Bardhan. The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), which estimates India's official employment and unemployment data, counts anyone working even one hour a week as employed. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation defended the credibility of its labour force data and its representation of India's labour market dynamics, saying the PLFS uses Computer-Assisted Personal Interviews to improve data quality and reduce errors, and noted international agencies use its data in their reporting. While it is difficult to provide an alternate estimate of the jobless rate, 17 experts surveyed did, giving a median of 10%, ranging from 7% to as high as 35%. For years, India published official unemployment rates of around 4%, partly because statisticians counted unpaid family labour and subsistence work as employment. Experts argue this diverges from international norms and makes the jobless rate incomparable with other countries. And it is not just academics and career labour market experts who are concerned about data accuracy. "Unemployment is one of our big challenges and I don't believe the government data reflects the true ground situation," said Duvvuri Subbarao, Reserve Bank of India Governor from 2008-2013. Subbarao said the kind of jobs being created also matters. As high-growth sectors like finance and IT tend to be less labour-intensive, he called for a sharper policy focus on manufacturing, which holds greater potential for large-scale employment. About a quarter of experts polled had no problem with the accuracy of official jobless data. "No one in the world has perfect employment data. People assume the U.S. labour force survey is perfect. It's not. Our PLFS is very robust now. People just don't want to believe it," said Surjit Bhalla, former executive director for India at the International Monetary Fund. But several experts said even if methodologically sound, official figures fail to capture deeper challenges. On its current path, India will take at least two decades to match the female labour force participation rates of other G20 countries, the survey found. A lack of strong job creation is also showing up in stagnating wages. "We are home to some of the big dollar billionaires... the wealth of some of the elite has been growing dramatically over the past decade. But real wages are not growing. Half of the workers are getting less than they got even 10 years ago. To me, these are not signs of a healthy economy," said Jayati Ghosh, professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. "We should be prioritising good quality employment generation," she said. Asked what the government should prioritise to create more high-quality jobs, several said improving education and skills, promoting private investment and reducing regulatory hurdles. "Stop selling the narrative that farm jobs growth (is) to be read as jobs growth. Adopt an industrial policy, with a manufacturing strategy that is horizontal in nature, not a PLI type picking winners tactic, that is clearly failing," said Santosh Mehrotra, professor at the University of Bath. PLI (Production Linked Incentive) is a subsidy scheme to boost domestic manufacturing. The government scaled back the scheme just four years after its launch.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

‘Purchased' honorary titles, international web of shell firms: How Ghaziabad conman operated fake embassy for 9 yrs
‘Purchased' honorary titles, international web of shell firms: How Ghaziabad conman operated fake embassy for 9 yrs

Indian Express

time27 minutes ago

  • Indian Express

‘Purchased' honorary titles, international web of shell firms: How Ghaziabad conman operated fake embassy for 9 yrs

A pristine white bungalow, four flashy sedans with blue and white diplomatic number plates parked in the driveway, national flags from across the world and a man posing as an 'ambassador'. When Uttar Pradesh Police's Special Task Force (STF) raided the 'Embassy of Westarctica' in Ghaziabad's upscale Kavi Nagar neighbourhood earlier this week, they came across an elaborate con job. Far from an an ordinary swindler, Harsh Vardhan Jain, the accused, had been running a fake embassy of a country that doesn't exist, without raising any suspicion for the last nine years. Jain had planned every detail meticulously to build this façade, according to the police. He had allegedly printed fake press cards, doctored photos with top dignitaries and even 'purchased' honorary titles from self-proclaimed micronations. The preliminary investigation, police say, has revealed that Jain was running a multi-nation scam. How did Jain manage to execute such a fraud, undetected for years, right beneath the vigilant gaze of the local Ghaziabad Police is yet to be revealed. How Jain's fake embassy operation was finally exposed is also unknown. According to the UPSTF, Jain is a Ghaziabad-born MBA graduate who claims to have studied in London. His father, JD Jain, was a once reputed industrialist, with marble export businesses operating in Rajasthan. In the early 2000s, Jain reportedly came in contact with self-styled godman Chandraswami, who allegedly introduced him to arms dealer Adnan Khashoggi and Ehsan Ali Syed, another conman posing as a businessman who was convicted in a fraud case in Switzerland. With their help, Jain is said to have established more than a dozen companies in Dubai, London, and Mauritius — many of them shell firms used to collect 'brokerage' for jobs and promises of huge loans before duping them. After a few years in London and Dubai, Jain allegedly returned to India in 2011 and began projecting himself as a diplomat. Police say he leveraged honorary titles from unrecognised micronations — Seborga, Westarctica, and Lodonia — to set up a fake embassy in his Ghaziabad home. He had also been posing as the ambassador of a fictional nation called Poulvia. When STF officers entered the Kavi Nagar bungalow on July 22, they found what appeared to be a diplomatic mission: cars with blue number plates bearing phrases like 'Honorary Consul – Baron Westarctica', flags of different nations on the property, and signages that were creating the illusion of official legitimacy. Inside, they recovered over Rs 44 lakh in Indian currency, foreign currency from the United Kingdom, United States, United Arab Emirates, and Turkey, 20 sets of fake diplomatic number plates, 34 stamps and seals of various fake entities,12 passports (some from unrecognized nations), Fake IDs including press cards and two PAN cards, a laptop, phone, and over a dozen luxury watches. Jain had been running the operation, STF officials said, by posing as a diplomatic representative allegedly by using the fake IDs and doctored photos. His setup included 'morphed' images showing him with late President APJ Abdul Kalam and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, among other leaders, in an attempt to look credible. Through this lavish setup, he had allegedly been luring individuals and companies with promises of jobs and international business deals. To outsiders, the 'embassy' appeared credible, complete with red and green diplomatic license plates and signage that implied ties with multiple global institutions. Officials said he even issued bogus 'diplomatic passports' from micronations and collected money as 'fees' with promises of providing employment in these micronations. Micronations are self-proclaimed countries not recognised by any sovereign state. While any associations with these micronations are often symbolic, Jain had allegedly used his associations with them to create an aura of legitimacy. Seborga, one of the micronations of which he had been posing as an ambassador, is a self-declared principality in Italy. In its statement, it said that it appointed Jain as an honorary councilor in good faith after he had contacted them. The statement also clarified that it was a symbolic post with no legal or diplomatic standing. The principality said that over the years Jain had aso 'recommended individuals to represent Seborga in India' some of whom had been appointed by the micronation. Westarctica, which claims to be a non-profit organisation working towards the cause of preserving the Antarctic ice sheet, confirmed that Jain was given the honorary title of 'Consul to India' after he made a donation in 2016. However, he violated protocol by calling his residence an embassy and printing unauthorised materials like diplomatic number plates and passports, according to a statement. 'He was indefinitely suspended,' the group said in a statement. Ladonia, another micronation, which claims to provide a cultural identity for people who believe in free speech and artistic expression and has clear boundaries but mostly 'non-resident' citizens denied any ties with Jain. forged documents to claim he was its Ambassador to India and harassed officials after they refused to recognize him. In a detailed response to questions asked by The Indian Express, Ladonia's Press Officer, Julia Andersson, said Jain became a 'symbolic citizen' on November 12, 2016, and had 'purchased' an honorary barony title. The micronation alleged that in November 2017, Jain had forged a certificate falsely claiming to be Ladonia's Ambassador to India, backdating it to September 15, 2016, in an attempt to predate the symbolic appointment of another Indian individual and had been 'harrassing' its officials by spamming them with texts and mails requesting for Ladonian paraphernalia, a request that was denied by the micronation. According to STF and police officials, Jain's network spanned multiple countries. He alleegdly maintained 11 bank accounts in the UK, UAE, Mauritius, and India; set up shell firms like Island General Trading Co. LLC (Dubai), East India Company UK Ltd and State Trading Corporation Ltd (UK); claimed to help clients get international contracts or jobs abroad; charged hefty 'brokerage'and used these fake diplomatic affiliations that he had purchased to appear credible enough to seek business clients. Police sources said that he made over 30 trips to the UAE alone and visited over 40 countries in the past decade to build a globe-trotting con operation. Police are currently trying to determine the number of people defrauded. An FIR (No. 671/2025) has been registered at Kavi Nagar police station under sections 318(4), 336(3), 338, and 340(2) of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita, relating to forgery, impersonation, and cheating. Jain was remanded to judicial custody on July 23, where the STF seeked custodial remand to trace the full extent of his hawala network. Officials also said that the Income Tax Department would be informed about the seized cash and foreign currency. Further investigation is on into his multiple PAN cards, international accounts, and fake documentation.

India unlikely to import US genetically modified agricultural items under trade deal: Sources
India unlikely to import US genetically modified agricultural items under trade deal: Sources

Indian Express

time29 minutes ago

  • Indian Express

India unlikely to import US genetically modified agricultural items under trade deal: Sources

During the ongoing trade negotiations, India is unlikely to agree to US demands to accept genetically modified (GM) agricultural products such as corn and soya, a source closely monitoring the talks has indicated. 'Some things are matters of principle. We can't import GM,' the source said in response to a query over the government's position on GM imports from the US. This assumes significance since agriculture remains one of the contentious issues between the two countries, and the United States Trade Representative (USTR) has previously flagged restrictions on its GM products by countries as discriminatory. 'The Food Safety and Standards Act of 2006 includes specific provisions for regulating food products derived from genetically engineered (GE) sources; however, as of December 31, 2024, the FSSAI was still in the process of establishing its regulations. India's biotechnology approval processes are slow, opaque, and subject to political influences, and do not appear to take into account science-based approval processes for GE products in exporting countries,' the USTR report had said. While India is seeking greater market access for its textiles, leather and footwear, the US is pushing for access to India's agricultural and dairy markets — a major hurdle, as Indian farmers often operate on small land parcels with limited technological support. In contrast, the US has demanded that India should drop its GM regulation. There is significant resistance to genetically modified (GM) crops in India. Only one GM crop — Bt cotton — is approved for cultivation. No GM food crop is commercially grown, although experimental trials continue. However, imports of GM soybean oil and canola oil are permitted. A 2013 report by the European Network of Scientists for Social and Environmental Responsibility (ENSSER) emphasised that many studies deeming GM foods safe were industry-funded, and that long‑term, independent studies were lacking. New Delhi‑based think tank GTRI said: 'Environmental studies have shown that widespread use of Bt crops can lead to pest resistance, such as in the pink bollworm, and pose risks to non‑target species such as monarch butterflies, as suggested in a 1999 Nature study. Additionally, the overuse of glyphosate with herbicide-tolerant GM crops has led to 'superweeds' and increased herbicide use.' The GTRI said that GM and non‑GM crops may intermingle at various stages of the supply chain — during transport, storage or processing. 'Once GM material enters, there is a high risk it could leak into local farming systems or processed food chains, posing risks to food safety, environmental integrity, and India's export reputation — especially in GM‑sensitive markets such as the EU,' the think tank warned. It said the import of GM products, such as animal feed, could negatively affect India's agricultural exports to the EU, which enforces strict GM-labelling rules and faces strong consumer opposition to GM‑linked products. Although GM feed is permitted, many European buyers prefer fully GM‑free supply chains. India's fragmented agri‑logistics and lack of segregation infrastructure increase the likelihood of cross‑contamination and trace GM presence in export consignments. This could result in shipment rejections, higher testing costs, and erosion of India's GM‑free image, particularly in sectors such as rice, tea, honey, spices and organic foods, the GTRI said. Ravi Dutta Mishra is a Principal Correspondent with The Indian Express, covering policy issues related to trade, commerce, and banking. He has over five years of experience and has previously worked with Mint, CNBC-TV18, and other news outlets. ... Read More

Arunachal guv attends Kargil Vijay Diwas event in Namsai
Arunachal guv attends Kargil Vijay Diwas event in Namsai

News18

time39 minutes ago

  • News18

Arunachal guv attends Kargil Vijay Diwas event in Namsai

Itanagar, Jul 26 (PTI) Arunachal Pradesh Governor KT Parnaik on Saturday said Kargil Vijay Diwas is not just about remembering a military triumph, but a call to live each day with honour and commitment to the nation. Participating in the Kargil Vijay Diwas celebrations in Namsai, he urged everyone to prove themselves worthy of the freedom that the soldiers laid down their lives to protect. The governor laid a wreath and paid floral tribute to the indomitable courage and supreme sacrifice of the bravehearts of the Indian armed forces during the Kargil War, an official statement from Raj Bhavan said. The Kargil Vijay Diwas is observed on July 26 every year to mark India's victory over Pakistan in the 1999 war. Paying glowing tributes to the courage, sacrifice, and patriotism of the fallen heroes, Parnaik recalled the bravery of young soldiers who faced harsh conditions with extraordinary resolve. 'Their legacy is not just written in history books but etched in the soul of the nation," he said. The governor also emphasised the war's lasting contributions to national security, including enhanced border vigilance, modernisation of defence capabilities, and strengthened civil-military coordination. Praising the Assam Rifles and Arunachal University of Studies for organising the programme, he termed it a powerful reminder of our collective responsibility to uphold the ideals of unity, patriotism, and national service. The governor appealed to citizens, especially the youth to draw inspiration from Kargil and contribute to the nation with pride and purpose. He also stressed that the youth must be educated, disciplined, and motivated to be self-reliant and competent to lead the nation in Viksit Bharat@2047. On the occasion, Kargil War veterans Naik Digendra Singh and Naik Prahlad Singh shared their experiences. PTI CORR MNB (This story has not been edited by News18 staff and is published from a syndicated news agency feed - PTI) view comments First Published: July 26, 2025, 21:15 IST Disclaimer: Comments reflect users' views, not News18's. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store