Fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Add and start Eury Pérez, target Mookie Betts and more THE BAT X insights

New York Times

21-07-2025

Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly rundown to inform fantasy managers about the road ahead.
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THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years and provides estimates based on a wide range of metrics, including Statcast metrics like exit velocity and barrels, as well as ballpark effects, weather conditions, matchups and much more. Another important concept to understand is regression to the mean, which means players performing above their typical level of play are likely to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve.
Following the All-Star Break, there's a lot to parse in these projections. And remember, context outside of the projections is key. While Cal Raleigh may be projected to regress in the season's second half, no one is suggesting you dump Big Dumper.
On the pitching side, Miami's Eury Pérez is ranked ninth on the top two-start pitchers list, under some bigger, more rostered names. He's 3-2 with a 3.18 ERA and a 2.38 expected ERA. His fastball is in the 95th percentile, and the strikeouts, chases and whiffs are there. If he's available in your league and you're down a starting pitcher, Pérez is a good bet.
Washington's Michael Soroka makes the waiver targets and top one-start pitchers lists this week. While Soroka's ERA is 5.10, his xERA is 3.22. His best pitch is his slurve, with a 28.8 Putaway% and 37.4 Whiff%. His fastball is only 93.9 mph, and he doesn't get a lot of whiffs, but his K% is still a respectable 25.3, and his BB% is 6.9.
THE BAT X still likes San Diego's Dylan Cease (3-9, 4.64 ERA, 3.46 xERA, 30.0 K%) and recommends targeting him in trades, while the model suggests trying to trade away Nick Pivetta and Seth Lugo (for pitchers with better rest-of-season projections). It also recommends looking to the A's and Rangers bullpens for relievers to stream.
As for hitting, THE BAT X predicts the Dodgers (obviously), Cubs, and Cardinals will be the top-scoring offenses this week. Victor Scott II and Masyn Winn of St. Louis are still widely available and could be good streamers this week. As for waiver wire adds, THE BAT X likes Jo Adell, who has 21 home runs with an .806 OPS this season. He could use more plate discipline, but the power is there: .582 xSLG, .397 xwOBA, 17.0 Barrel%, 50.0 Hard-Hit%.
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The Dodgers' Mookie Betts hits the trade targets list this week amid a season-long slump. He's squared up and isn't striking out much, but he's not hitting with power or consistency. Still, projection systems always factor in past performance, and THE BAT X expects Betts' ROS value ($23.90) to far exceed his year-to-date value ($8.20). If you can buy low on Betts and sell high on several players on the 'Hitters to Fade or Trade' list, a Betts bounce-back could help your team in the second half.
Finally, commenters continue to ask why THE BAT X is higher on Colorado's Brenton Doyle (a waiver target this week) than other systems. Last week, Derek Carty provided clarity:
'It's hard to speak for other systems, but my guess is that others are reacting too strongly to the surface numbers, which obviously haven't been very good this year. But the under-the-hood stuff is all pretty much the same. K% and BB% are the same. Barrels remain very good. Bat speed/attack angle stuff is pretty much the same. He's hitting the ball slightly harder, albeit into less ideal launch windows. His sprint speed remains elite. It's always possible the system is missing something, but in terms of what it's looking at and what I can tell myself, not a whole lot looks different about Doyle. He still profiles as a good player, especially if he can get back to lifting the ball a little bit more. The .256 BABIP is certainly unlucky and driving his production down.'
Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters. For a more thorough explanation of THE BAT X, read Carty's explainer.
For first-time readers, we compare players' year-to-date value (value to this point in the season) against their projected rest-of-season value (value for the remainder of the season and not including YTD value). Values are expressed as dollars, and $0 represents a starting caliber player in the aforementioned 12-team mixed roto league format. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire, their value for the remainder of the year and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know, but because this is a model, you'll want to use the projections alongside knowledge of your league.
Like the waiver wire, fades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. Many talented players, who you could very well hold based on roster construction, are on this list. However, the point is that their success is projected to drop off; due to their YTD performance, they could be valuable trade bait and get you a higher return than their worth for the remainder of the season.
Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. The projections indicate that you might want these players on your roster for the rest of the season. You can even compare this list to the 'Fade or Trade' list above to see if there are deals to be made. The names on this list are well-known, but these players haven't yet lived up to their previous or expected success, meaning you may be able to acquire a player on the come-up for a good value.
Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups this week. The 'Fantasy $Value' indicates a player's value in the matchup listed, while the 'Underlying $Value' refers to the skill level or expected performance of the player based on THE BAT X's advanced metrics and context-neutral data outside of the specific matchup listed. It's the player's value without external conditions like ballpark, the opponent, weather and their position in the lineup. It helps to separate a player's raw core ability from the value in a given matchup.
Here's a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have overperformed in the past 30 days, according to wOBA and xwOBA.
The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. Some of that underperformance can be chalked up to luck, and they're likely to rebound to numbers closer to their xwOBA.
Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. Based on matchups, these five teams are projected to score the most runs this week, meaning the individual players on each team could have fantasy values that exceed their underlying values. This list could help you identify streamers or make tough decisions in weekly lineups.
The top one-start pitchers list is limited to players rostered at 50% or less. Because these players are more available, you may find a streamer worthy of a start in a competitive league if you need help in pitching categories. Otherwise, the list can aid in making tough roster calls.
Two-start pitchers for the week are ranked based on THE BAT X's projection system, and the list excludes those with a projected negative value. Two-start pitchers are valuable in weekly lineups, and these projections can help you find a plug-and-play option. The projected stats can also help you decide who to start, who to bench and who to replace.
Based on matchups, the following bullpens are ripe with relievers to stream this week. If you have RP spots to fill or improve, this is the list for you.
THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics.
(Photo of Mookie Betts: Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Getty Images)