Budget to focus on long-term gains at cost of short-term pain
The summer economic statement (SES) will set the stage for this year's
budget
and how much the
Government
is likely to splash out when it comes to spending and
tax
measures.
The revised
National Development Plan
(NDP) will lay out the trajectory for perhaps the next 10 years – and as much as €200 billion – in investment in
housing
, hospitals, roads, rail and schools.
All of this happening at a time of deep economic uncertainty caused by the prospect of a full-scale trade war over
US
president
Donald Trump
's threats of punishing tariffs on goods from the
European Union
.
READ MORE
The messaging from Government Buildings has been clear for some time that the budget giveaways of recent years are a thing of the past.
One-off
cost-of-living
measures are highly unlikely to feature when Minister for Finance
Paschal Donohoe
and Minister for Public Expenditure
Jack Chambers
take to their feet in the Dáil on budget day.
As part of the SES, Cabinet colleagues are set to be put on notice too that they will have to rein in current spending, which has risen as part of the response to the Covid-19 pandemic and other economic shocks.
As The Irish Times
reported last week
, increases in current spending of 8 to 9 per cent in recent years are expected to be reduced significantly, perhaps towards 5 per cent.
This could have implications for budgetary questions such as the increase in welfare rates.
The period leading up to budget day will see intense negotiations as Ministers seek to carve out the biggest possible slice of the pie for their departments amid constraints not present in recent years.
They had practice in recent weeks as they made requests as part of the revision of the NDP.
Departments where allocations were agreed over the weekend include transport – set to get increased funds generally and money earmarked for
MetroLink
– education and defence.
Minister for Housing
James Browne
– who has been awaiting the NDP as he develops the Government's new housing plan – had big asks.
These are not only in terms of funds to help meet housing targets, but also to cover investment in water services to pave the way for home building. There is also the need to fund financial assistance to people with homes affected by defective concrete blocks.
NDP talks on housing were said by one source to have been 'heated', though Mr Chambers sought to play down any tensions during an interview on RTÉ radio on Sunday.
Talks were said to be ongoing as of last night.
There was no confirmation that allocations for health – where negotiations have also gone to the wire – have been agreed yet either.
This week's NDP update will be more focused on the sums involved than specific infrastructure projects to be funded.
Ministers are expected to outline specific programmes and investment as part of the budget.
There is already pressure from the Opposition over the likely elimination of one-off cost-of-living measures, with
Sinn Féin
leader
Mary Lou McDonald
telling the
Dáil
last week that people 'desperately need' help.
The Coalition may well learn if announcements of plans for spending large sums on yet-to-be-delivered infrastructure projects – albeit many of them badly needed – will make up for a lack of energy credits and double welfare payments on budget day in the eyes of the public.
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Carton himself grew up around the area. His father, also John, was the dredge master of the port. 'He gave me the love of the sea and respect of the sea.' For Carton's 10th birthday, his father gave him a 31-foot wooden boat with a sail and an outboard engine, as well as a sense of trust that the young boy would be able to safely manage it. 'Originally, Sligo was trading with Spain, Portugal and up into the Baltics. Back then, Sligo was a bigger settlement than Galway, and a bigger trading town than Galway.' What was being traded? 'Oats, barley and potatoes were going out. Gin, wine and spices were coming in. There were casks of sherry coming in from Portugal. Sligo was also trading with a lot of European ports, and selling some of these things on again.' This back and forth of trading continued all through the 1800s and into the early 20th century, via sailing vessels and steam boats. In addition to goods, many people from the west of Ireland emigrated via Sligo port. During the Famine of the 1840s, thousands sailed for Canada and the US. 'As a child who lived in a port area, you would see lots of different crews coming in over time. It widens your horizons.' He recalls that in the 1970s, Sligo was exporting cattle to Glasgow, Liverpool – and every three weeks – to the unlikely location of Libya. 'That was when Gaddafi was in power,' he says. How many cattle were being exported to Libya in the 1970s from Sligo? 'In enough numbers to justify the journey every three weeks. I've looked at the records, and they just say 'cattle'.' (The port records are stored in the Sligo County Museum.) 'To me, the county town is the town that is the focus of your county, and that's what Sligo is. We were a port town first, and then the railway came afterwards to connect us.' Sligo port remains a working port. 'We export fish meal, and logs to make paper. The fishmeal is processed in Killybegs and goes to Norway, Greece, and the UK. Timber goes to Scotland, Germany and Belgium.' A paper log is still maintained for all ships that come in and out of Sligo. The average number of ships into harbour a year has been 20 in recent years, but by the time I talk to Carton in early July, that number has already been exceeded. 'It'll be more like 40 this year,' he says. Could more be made of the port in terms of tourism or leisure? 'A lot of Irish towns had turned their back on the water, but now that is now changing. There are plans to build a marina at Rosses Point, so we will see what happens.' [ The ancient Irish town battling against decline: 'It used to be the centre of things, but those days are gone now' Opens in new window ] Later that evening. I find myself crossing the Hyde Bridge. It's raining. Even so, I stop for a couple of minutes, lean on the bridge and listen to the rushing waters of the Garavogue river sweeping underneath, as if unseen creatures are urgently calling to each other as they pass by. If towns have distinctive sounds, this is what Sligo sounds like, and always has. Next week: Rosita Boland visits Clonmel