A Nixonian Trump Offer to China?

Hindustan Times

a day ago

U.S.-China trade negotiators adjourned their meeting in Sweden this week to consult with their bosses, but is there something more than a trade deal afoot? There's some reason to think President Trump is hunting a larger diplomatic breakthrough to pull China from supporting Russia.
Mr. Trump is clearly frustrated that he hasn't been able to negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. He's changed his policy on arming Ukraine and set a deadline to impose new sanctions. He has also come to believe that the key to putting more pressure on Russia is to peel China away from its economic and other support for Moscow.
We hear that was part of the message that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent brought to Sweden this week. Mr. Trump wants the big trade deal with China that eluded him in the first term. But Mr. Bessent is pitching a larger detente if President Xi Jinping is willing to stop supporting Mr. Putin's war.
Mr. Bessent also no doubt told his interlocutor, the influential He Lifeng, about the 'secondary sanctions' bill pending in the Senate. That bill would impose tariffs of up to 500% on countries that support Russia's war machine by buying its oil and gas. China and India are the bill's two main targets. If Mr. Trump endorses the bill, it would sail through the Senate with a huge bipartisan vote.
The sanctions would hit those economies hard. India got the message this week after Mr. Trump warned against oil purchases from Moscow and threatened 25% tariffs on Indian goods. Reuters reports that India's state refiners stopped buying Russian oil this week.
China showed when it withheld rare-earth minerals that it has more trade leverage. But secondary sanctions would still hurt China at a moment when its economy is far from robust. A long-term trade truce with the U.S. that repealed some of the Trump tariffs would be welcome in Beijing.
Mr. Trump is also making diplomatic gestures to Beijing that suggest a desire for detente. First he lifted his ban on the sale of advanced computer chips to China, specifically Nvidia's H20 chip. This was a top Beijing trade request.
Multiple press reports say the White House also leaned on Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te not to stop in the U.S. on his way to a planned visit to Latin America. No one will confirm the pressure, but no one is outright denying it either. Mr. Lai has canceled the trip. Even the Biden Administration allowed Taiwan's President to make a stopover in the U.S., despite China's typically loud opposition. Beijing will notice Mr. Trump's accommodation.
These concessions to Beijing are producing some heartburn among China hawks in Washington, including a letter protesting the H20 chip sale from 20 national-security experts. The White House had to expect this, but it may think the chance of a grand bargain is worth it.
Mr. Trump has long admired the way Richard Nixon exploited Russia-China tensions to end China's isolation during the Cold War. One reason he has said he wants to settle the Ukraine conflict is that he thinks it drove Russia and China closer together. Breaking up this axis could possibly drive Russia to the bargaining table with Ukraine.
All of this is undoubtedly a long shot. Messrs. Xi and Putin declared their 'no limits' partnership shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and China is the dominant partner. It gets cut-rate oil in return for delivering technology to sustain the war. It's hard to know if that calculus would change if Mr. Trump made clear he's serious about secondary sanctions.
There's also the question of how much Mr. Xi would want in return, apart from being free of sanctions. His abiding goal is to bring Taiwan under Mainland control, and his military is practicing maneuvers that would be part of an attempted blockade of the island. Would Mr. Trump be willing to weaken U.S. support for Taiwan? It bears watching.
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Mr. Trump is above all else a deal maker. He entered his second term wanting deals with all of America's main adversaries—Iran, Russia, China, even North Korea. Iran turned him down and paid for it. Russia has refused as Mr. Putin tries to break Ukraine. The guess here is that Mr. Trump is now looking to see what might be possible behind door number three.