HTX DeepThink: Fed Sits Tight Amid Bind; Trump's New Token on Horizon?
SINGAPORE, May 8, 2025 /CNW/ -- HTX DeepThink is a flagship market insights column created by HTX, dedicated to exploring global macro trends, key economic indicators, and major developments across the crypto industry. In a world where volatility is the norm, HTX DeepThink aims to help readers " Find Order in Chaos."
This week, what does Trump's emerging token plan mean for crypto markets? Why is the Fed holding rates steady? Behind Bitcoin's rebound, are hidden risks lurking? In this edition of HTX DeepThink, Chloe (@ ChloeTalk1) from HTX Research breaks it all down.
Trump Media Group's Utility Token: A Potential Shift in U.S. Equity Tokenization
On April 30, Trump Media & Technology Group announced it would collaborate with the Truth digital wallet to launch a new utility token called DJT. Initially, DJT will facilitate payments for the Truth+ subscription service, with plans to expand its utility across the Truth ecosystem.
It's the first time a publicly listed U.S. media company is launching a utility token tied to a real-world product ecosystem, signifying a historic convergence between traditional equities and on-chain asset formats. Although the team has yet to announce a release date, blockchain platform, or tokenomics, the rollout appears to follow Trump's classic strategy: hype first, details later.
DJT is hitting the market at just the right moment as memecoin mania is cooling and narratives are shifting toward utility and payment integration. Similar to HTX's recent listing of WLFI's USD1, demand for "practical crypto assets" is surging. DJT combines powerful political branding with real ecosystem support, offering long-term value potential far beyond that of short-lived meme-driven tokens.
U.S.-China Trade Talks: A Temporary Easing Amidst Persistent Tensions
This weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant and Trade Representative Jamison Greer will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Geneva. This meeting, the first high-level U.S.-China trade talks since heightened tensions in spring 2025, signals a potential diplomatic thaw.
Although both sides still dispute who initiated the talks, the meeting alone sends a strong signal of reengagement and diplomatic thawing. With tariffs at historic highs, markets are interpreting the summit as a short-term de-escalation of geopolitical risks—sparking a relief rally in risk assets.
Following the news, Bitcoin rose by approximately 3.6%, briefly surpassing $97,000. This reflects how sensitive capital flows remain to macro-level easing signals. While structural differences between the two nations are far from resolved, the current window of policy détente may offer a short-term liquidity boost for digital assets, gold, and tech stocks.
On May 8, the Fed held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% for the third consecutive meeting. While it was widely expected, Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a noticeably more cautious tone during the press conference:
"Now is not the time for us to lead with a rate cut."
"The cost of waiting is relatively low."
"Whether we cut this year depends on how things develop."
The Fed is currently caught in a "dual bind": on one hand, disinflation has stalled, with PCE and CPI both above the 2% target. On the other, the central bank's fiscal position is deteriorating. A 25–30 bps rate cut could shave $20 billion off annual income, further reducing remittances to the Treasury and raising concerns over the Fed's policy independence.
As a result, despite markets currently pricing in three rate cuts in 2025, the Fed is more likely to take a "data-driven, delayed transition" approach.
Bitcoin's Market Dynamics: Macroeconomic Data to Dictate Direction
Despite BTC rebounding to around $99,000 on geopolitical and monetary optimism, the options market is not confirming a strong directional bias. Deribit data shows implied volatility on June and July calls rising only modestly, while 25d risk reversals remain neutral to slightly bearish, and skew curves are relatively flat. Notably, large Gamma exposures are clustered around the $95,000–$100,000 range, indicating that BTC is currently trapped in a "high-volatility, low-conviction" zone awaiting macro catalysts.
If CPI and jobs data for May–June remain hot, the Fed may push back on rate cut expectations— risking a BTC pullback. Conversely, if inflation cools and unemployment ticks up, Powell may pivot dovishly, providing a green light for BTC to break out of its volatility compression range and resume its bullish trend.
*The above content is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any investment product.
cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends.
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Winnipeg Free Press
13 minutes ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
Tariffs, wildfires and AI on the agenda as Canada hosts world leaders at G7
OTTAWA – Prime Minister Mark Carney has tried to pare down Canada's priorities as the G7 summit host, but there's still a lengthy list of global issues for leaders to discuss over the coming days. 'Leaders (will) meet at a moment of enormous flux globally, when tensions among G7 members are especially pronounced,' Carney's foreign policy adviser David Angell told a panel this week. He did not directly reference U.S. President Donald Trump, who famously walked out of the last G7 summit Canada hosted in 2018. Here's a look at what's on the agenda in Kananaskis, Alta., and what to expect. Economics On the formal agenda, the first discussion is about the 'global economic outlook,' followed by a working lunch on economic security and supply chains. Angell said this will include a discussion on 'anti-market practices by large, non-G7 economies.' China is among those countries accused of anti-market practices. 'There's no doubt that important discussion of President Trump's tariff strategy will take place,' he added. John Kirton, head of the G7 Research Group at the University of Toronto, said the discussion will likely set the tone on how countries balance fiscal stimulus through tax cuts or possibly more defence spending along with cutting back deficits. He said leaders will need to navigate the difficult reality that Trump's tariffs are hurting economic growth and likely caused the downgrading of Washington's credit ratings. Leaders are set to discuss critical minerals, and Kirton said this might involve setting labour and environmental transparency standards for minerals acquired in fragile countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo. Sen. Peter Boehm, who played a central role in many G7 summits, said he expects Canada to raise the dysfunction of the World Trade Organization, though this might happen in an informal setting instead of part of the structured G7 meetings. The WTO's appeal body is the main global enforcer of resolutions in trade disputes, and it has been effectively stalled for years as the U.S. blocks the appointment of panel members, following frustration of how the WTO has ruled against Washington. In 2018, Canada launched the Ottawa Group, a committee urging WTO reform made up of more than a dozen economies ranging from Kenya to Norway, but it has had limited success. Wildfires and foreign interference The second session taking place Monday will involve safety, particularly wildfires, foreign interference and transnational crime. Canada is set to release a Kananaskis Wildfire Charter, spanning mitigation, response and recovery. Kirton said discussion around the document will focus on 'equipment interoperability' to allow G7 members to support each other during emergencies, as well as the use of satellite imagery to fight wildfires. He said the topic has become 'a burning issue' in part because wildfires in places like Los Angeles and across the Prairies show how the threat is relevant to Washington and its G7 peers. Leaders might try to raise climate change, but Kirton doubts that phrase will appear in any closing statements, with Trump pushing back on the topic. A brief circulated among G7 planners from various countries originally included the term 'countering migrant smuggling and drug trafficking' but Kirton noted that the term did not appear in later drafts. Kirton said he expects leaders to discuss tighter co-operation in combating the drug trade, given that the U.S. concern over opioids matches concerns other countries have about heroin trafficking. 'Making the world secure' The topic title of the Monday working dinner is broad. While such a session would normally involve conflicts in Israel and the Palestinian territories, North Korea and Sudan, analysts expect that recent strikes between Israel and Iran will dominate this discussion. Ukrainian sovereignty Tuesday's working breakfast will come after G7 leaders have a chance to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and amid concerns from other G7 members that the U.S. might sign a deal from Russia that only encourages further invasion of European countries. After that, G7 leaders have a larger meeting with the invited guests, which so far includes leaders of Australia, Brazil, India, Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Ukraine, NATO, the United Nations and the World Bank. It's unclear whether Canada's bid to raise issues of foreign interference will come up in talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose government the RCMP has linked to extortion, coercion and homicide cases. In January, the foreign interference inquiry's final report said 'India is the second most active' threat actor, which is 'clandestinely providing illicit financial support to various Canadian politicians in an attempt to secure the election of pro-India candidates or gain influence.' Energy security Tuesday afternoon's discussion is set to include making energy affordable and creating the infrastructure needed to diversify of energy sources. Angell said 'a number of key leaders' visiting the summit as guests will be part of the talks. Carney's office has said Canada is seeking coalitions with reliable partners to open new markets, and generate large infrastructure investments. AI and quantum tech Carney's office says G7 leaders will discuss 'using artificial intelligence and quantum to unleash economic growth,' though it's not clear where in the schedule this will take place. Experts say quantum computing could rapidly speed up processing times and allow for more accurate or efficient tasks. But they say cryptography might be needed to prevent powerful quantum computers from breaking power grids and banking systems. Kirton said the discussion will likely include discussion on how to include developing countries in the gains of AI and how it can boost the efficiency of government bureaucracies and business of all sizes. Something useful — and Canadian While federal officials have warned that the summit will unlikely end with a lengthy communiqué that has been part of almost every other G7 summit, Boehm has faith Canada will still deliver points of consensus that liberal democracies can act on. Last month, finance ministers and central bankers agreed on action around cyber threats to the financial sector and the need to assess the possibilities and risks posed by artificial intelligence. In March, foreign ministers pledged to focus on maritime security, a topic that affects all G7 countries who also happen to share three oceans with Canada, giving grounds to look at everything from unregistered vessels undermining sanctions to illegal fishing and threats to undersea fibre-optic cables. These were largely seen as ways to bridge the growing gap between Europe and the U.S. and focus on shared goals. It's a skill G7 allies turn to Canada for, sometimes literally, in the middle of the night. 'There's often come a time, usually at three in the morning or something, where someone will look at me, or whoever is in the Canadian chair and say … 'it's time for the great Canadian initiative to compromise, and get this thing done.' So we do add value,' Boehm said. This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 15, 2025.
Winnipeg Free Press
23 minutes ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
Carney's task at G7 will be to keep the group alive as experts question the outcome
OTTAWA – As Prime Minister Mark Carney gets ready to host U.S. President Donald Trump and other leaders at the G7 summit in Alberta, analysts say Canada's most important goal will be to keep the G7 from falling apart — even if that means not issuing a joint statement. 'Keeping this informal international organization together will, I think, be a mark of success,' said Sen. Peter Boehm, a former diplomat who played a central role in Canada's participation in the G7 for decades. 'The challenge I think that we will be seeing at Kananaskis is whether we still have like-mindedness in the G7, and whether that can still project (unity), in terms of dealing with some of the big global challenges.' The G7 includes the United States, France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, Italy and Canada, as well as the European Union. For five decades, the group's members have coordinated how liberal democracies respond to economic and social challenges. The group has set the tone for other industrialized democracies and the United Nations for decades, and in recent years has gone beyond economics to focus on global security. Each G7 nation takes a turn at a rotating presidency of the group; this year is Canada's turn. Carney will welcome leaders to Kananaskis, Alta., on Sunday and the summit runs through Tuesday. The meetings come days after Israel and Iran exchanged missile strikes and after months of Trump disparaging multilateral institutions and implementing tariffs widely seen as damaging to the global economy. Trump has said repeatedly that Russia should rejoin the group it was expelled from after it invaded Ukraine in 2014 — despite Moscow saying it has no interest in doing so. This year's summit was organized hastily. This spring's election and Justin Trudeau's resignation as prime minister caused the bureaucracy to scale back its planning and outreach to other G7 countries. It will be Carney's first major summit, though Boehm notes he took part in G7 and G20 meetings during his former career as a central banker. The summit normally ends with a joint communiqué, a lengthy statement outlining views shared by G7 countries that is negotiated over the course of weeks, and often through the night during the summit. In 2019, however, France issued a chair's statement — a step Boehm said G7 leaders reserve for the worst-case scenario when the leaders are unable to arrive at a consensus. 'What's the point of driving towards consensus when you're not going to get it?' he said, adding he does not expect this year's G7 summit to issue a full communiqué. 'There is always going to be some bumps and hiccups, and one country not seeing it quite the way the others do, but it's a venerable institution.' Federal officials who briefed Canadian media last Thursday hinted that this G7 might not end with a joint statement. 'Canada is adopting a focused approach this year. We have a streamlined number of priorities, ministerial meetings and negotiated outcome documents,' said a senior official who spoke on the condition she not be named. 'We really want to ensure that we continue to focus on actions that we can take together.' Kerry Buck, a former Canadian ambassador, said it might be 'impossible' to reach agreement with the U.S. on things like Russia's invasion of Ukraine, climate change and the need to preserve free trade. 'It's in no one's interest to pick a fight and have open conflict at the table,' Buck told a panel held by the Canadian International Council on June 4. 'A message of disunity coming from the leaders would actually do more damage to the G7 and it's in our interest to preserve it.' Buck said she expects the one-on-one meetings on the sidelines of the summit will lead to fruitful 'quiet diplomacy.' 'I would aim for a thin G7 leaders declaration at best, (and) work to minimize damage to the institution,' she said. 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He also predicts Canada will release six subject-specific documents summarizing the general position of G7 members. G7 hosts also tend to unveil a major development or humanitarian project — a 'signature initiative' — in a bid to get funding from partner countries. Canada has previously used the G7 to advance education for girls in conflict zones and maternal health in poorer countries, while Italy last year focused on biological threats in Africa. It's not clear if Canada will have the cash to make a major announcement this year. Kirton cited a budget crunch among G7 members, while Boehm said the spring election stopped a lot of outreach Canada would normally do in the months leading up to a summit. Some are anticipating a project pitch that wouldn't involve large sums of money, such as an initiative aimed at countering transnational repression. Given its power, the G7 is a target for advocates on a range of issues who hope to see their priorities reflected in the communiqué. Ottawa has faced calls to speak out against arbitrary detainment, Africa's debt crisis and Pakistan's Kashmir dispute with India. Business and civil society leaders will be holding a series of side events associated with the summit, although many will be far removed from the leaders' summit in Kananaskis. The RCMP said it has set up 'three designated G7 demonstration zones' that will be broadcast to G7 leaders with video and audio, and that the leaders will be far from the protests. This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 15, 2025.
Globe and Mail
an hour ago
- Globe and Mail
The Fundamental Problem With MicroStrategy's Bitcoin-Buying Plan
One of the hottest tech stocks in recent years has been MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), which has rebranded itself as just Strategy. And a huge reason for its rally has been due to its bullish position on Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and its continual stockpiling of the digital currency. With the cryptocurrency soaring in value in recent years and breaching the $100,000 mark, Strategy has benefited from that excitement. But there's a fundamental problem with this approach. While it seems like a great way to benefit from the cryptocurrency's rising value, simply loading up on Bitcoins may not necessarily result in a higher share price for Strategy. In fact, it could end up hurting the stock down the road. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue » Bullish and betting heavily on Bitcoin Strategy is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with its tally sitting at 582,000 Bitcoins as of June 9. 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