Is flying getting more dangerous? Scientists reveal why so many planes are crashing - as Air India disaster kills 241 on board

Daily Mail​

17 hours ago

At least 260 people have died in Ahmedabad after an Air India flight crashed into a building, mere seconds after taking off.
The London-bound Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner plunged into a busy suburb on Thursday morning, claiming the lives of all but one passenger.
The disaster is the latest in a string of commercial airplane crashes that have sadly claimed the lives of hundreds of people.
At the start of the year, an American Airlines flight collided with a military helicopter over Washington, killing 67.
Then, in March, 13 people were killed in a devastating incident off the island of Ruatan.
According to expert analysis, 2025 has become one of the deadliest years for air travel in the past decade.
With only one confirmed survivor, yesterday's tragedy brings this year's total airflight fatalities to 460 in just the first six months of the year.
So, is air travel really becoming more dangerous? MailOnline spoke to the experts to find out.
While the aviation industry maintains exceptionally high safety standards, the recent string of high-profile incidents has raised concerns that flying may be becoming more risky.
The average number of deaths during flights per year currently stands at 284, according to Jan-Arwed Richter, founder of Jacdec, a German consulting firm that tracks aviation safety.
That means 2025 has already had almost double the average number of air travel deaths.
Mr Richter told Bloomberg: 'This year still has more than six months to go, so this could be concerning if this rate of fatal accidents would go on.'
While many people will likely now have concerns about the safety of air travel, experts reassure that flying is not getting more dangerous.
Dr Simon Bennett, director of the civil safety and security unit at the University of Leicester, told MailOnline: 'That perception is understandable because safety goes through peaks and troughs.
'So if you take a snapshot at a particular time it can either look like things are getting seriously dangerous or that things are getting seriously safe.'
2025's high level of fatalities comes on the back of one of the safest periods in the history of air travel.
Is flying becoming more dangerous?
This year alone there have been 460 deaths due to aircraft crashes.
The average for most years is just 284, putting 2025 at nearly double the yearly average in just six months.
However, experts say that air travel is not becoming more dangerous.
Air safety incidents produce big spikes in fatality numbers which skew short-term averages.
Over the longer term, air travel is actually safer than ever before.
Experts say that air travel is significantly safer than driving or most other forms of transport.
In 2023, industry groups found that there was not a single fatal incident throughout the entire year.
However, a series of high-profile events starting from the end of 2024 have grabbed the public attention.
While these incidents create an illusion of escalating danger, this is not reflected in the statistical reality.
As the Air India tragedy unfolded, the UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch published its annual safety review for 2024.
This review concluded: 'Commercial aviation remains one of the safest forms of public transport, with global accident rates continuing their long-term decline.'
Dr Bennett points out that aviation experts only look at averages over longer periods, to avoid being biased by big spikes associated with single incidents.
'If you take a 20-year snapshot, then air safety is unequivocally improving,' he explained.
However, the experts also points out that it is extremely difficult to convince people of this fact.
'You will be safer five miles above the earth than you would be at home, that is a fact. But if you tell the public that they won't believe you,' he said.
'My deepest sympathies go out to those who've been affected, but I would beg the public to consider such events in the widest possible context.'
As for what has caused this 'trough' in air flight safety, there may be a number of reasons with economic causes being the most likely.
Dr Bennett says that downturns in the fortunes of airflight industries lead to reduced investment in safety which can spark an increase in near misses and incidents.
Until the official investigation concludes, it is impossible to confirm exactly what led to the crash of Indian Airlines Flight 171.
However, it currently appears that environmental and mechanical issues may have combined to prevent the flight from gaining altitude properly.
Dr Sammy Diasinos, an aerodynamics researcher at Macquarie University, says: 'The B787 has very powerful engines and can easily operate if one engine fails, so for this accident to occur, we would be looking at a very rare double engine failure.
'I would expect this highlights an environmental cause rather than an engine or maintenance issue.
'It would be very unusual for two engines on the same aircraft to be on the exact same maintenance schedule, making simultaneous mechanical failure unlikely.'
Experts point out that the hot conditions and the flight's full fuel would have meant it needed extra time to gain altitude - something which it appeared unable to do.
With temperatures on the runway at 37°C (98°F), the flight would have needed significantly more lift to gain altitude.
Additionally, Flight 171 appeared to have both its landing gear deployed and flaps retracted at an altitude of only 600ft (182m) causing it to have a lower lift.
Murray Terwey, an aviation lecturer at Edith Conway University, said: 'Aircrew have been known in the past to retract the flap instead of the gear by mistake.
'This, in the early stages of flight, can lead to a significant loss of lift which can lead to an accident.'
However, the exact combination of factors which led to this incident will only be revealed in a full investigation by the Indian Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau.
The odds of dying in a plane crash are about one in 11 million, but the chances of surviving depend on your seating choice.
An aviation expert reveals a 44 per cent fatality rate for travelers sitting in the aisle seats in the middle of the craft, compared with 28 per cent for central rear seats.
Doug Drury, a professor at Central Queensland University, said because the aisle seats do not offer a buffer on one side, the passenger will likely be struck with crash properties.
Travelers unable to secure the safest seats may have better luck surviving in the middle and window seats of the middle part of the plane.
However, the chances of dying in an aircraft accident have less to do with where you sit and more with the circumstances surrounding the crash.