Latest news with #JanArwedRichter
Daily Mail
4 hours ago
- Daily Mail
Air India crash brings aviation death toll to 460 this year. So, is it still safe to fly?
This year is proving one of the deadliest in the past decade for air travel. With at least 260 dead after the Air India crash this week, aviation experts say fatalities have reached 460 in the first six months of 2025. Given the latest tragedy, investigates whether air travel really is becoming more dangerous. While the aviation industry maintains exceptionally high safety standards, the recent string of high-profile incidents has raised fears flying is getting riskier. The average number of deaths during flights per year stands at 284, according to Jan-Arwed Richter, founder of Jacdec, a German consulting firm that tracks aviation safety. That means 2025 has already had almost double the average number of air travel deaths. Richter told Bloomberg: 'This year still has more than six months to go, so this could be concerning if this rate of fatal accidents would go on.' While many people will likely now have concerns about the safety of air travel, experts stress flying is not getting more dangerous. Dr Simon Bennett, director of the civil safety and security unit at the University of Leicester, in England, told 'That perception is understandable because safety goes through peaks and troughs. 'So if you take a snapshot at a particular time it can either look like things are getting seriously dangerous or that things are getting seriously safe.' The high level of fatalities in 2025 comes on the back of one of the safest periods in the history of air travel. In 2023, industry groups found there was not a single fatal incident throughout the entire year. However, a series of high-profile events starting from the end of 2024 have grabbed the public attention. While these incidents create an illusion of escalating danger, this is not reflected in the statistical reality. As the Air India tragedy unfolded, the UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch published its annual safety review for 2024. This review concluded: 'Commercial aviation remains one of the safest forms of public transport, with global accident rates continuing their long-term decline.' Dr Bennett points out that aviation experts only look at averages over longer periods, to avoid being biased by big spikes associated with single incidents. 'If you take a 20-year snapshot, then air safety is unequivocally improving,' he explained. However, the experts also points out that it is extremely difficult to convince people of this fact. 'You will be safer five miles above than you would be at home - that is a fact. 'But if you tell the public that they won't believe you,' he said. 'My deepest sympathies go out to those who've been affected, but I would beg the public to consider such events in the widest possible context.' As for what has caused this 'trough' in air flight safety, there may be a number of reasons with economic causes being the most likely. Dr Bennett says that downturns in the fortunes of airflight industries lead to reduced investment in safety, which can spark an increase in near misses and incidents. Until the official investigation concludes, it is impossible to confirm exactly what led to the crash of Air India Flight 171. However, it appears environmental and mechanical issues may have combined to prevent the flight from gaining altitude properly. Dr Sammy Diasinos, an aerodynamics researcher at Macquarie University, in Sydney, Australia, says: 'The B787 has very powerful engines and can easily operate if one engine fails, so for this accident to occur, we would be looking at a very rare double engine failure. 'I would expect this highlights an environmental cause rather than an engine or maintenance issue. 'It would be very unusual for two engines on the same aircraft to be on the exact same maintenance schedule, making simultaneous mechanical failure unlikely.' Experts point out that the hot conditions and the flight's full fuel would have meant it needed extra time to gain altitude - something which it appeared unable to do. With temperatures on the runway at 37°C (98°F), the flight would have needed significantly more lift to gain altitude. Additionally, Flight 171 appeared to have both its landing gear deployed and flaps retracted at an altitude of only 600ft (182m) causing it to have a lower lift. Murray Terwey, an aviation lecturer at Edith Cowan University in Western Australia, said: 'Aircrew have been known in the past to retract the flap instead of the gear by mistake. 'This, in the early stages of flight, can lead to a significant loss of lift which can lead to an accident.' However, the exact combination of factors which led to this incident will only be revealed in a full investigation by the Indian Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau.
Daily Mail
a day ago
- Daily Mail
Is flying getting more dangerous? Scientists reveal why so many planes are crashing - as Air India disaster kills 241 on board
At least 260 people have died in Ahmedabad after an Air India flight crashed into a building, mere seconds after taking off. The London-bound Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner plunged into a busy suburb on Thursday morning, claiming the lives of all but one passenger. The disaster is the latest in a string of commercial airplane crashes that have sadly claimed the lives of hundreds of people. At the start of the year, an American Airlines flight collided with a military helicopter over Washington, killing 67. Then, in March, 13 people were killed in a devastating incident off the island of Ruatan. According to expert analysis, 2025 has become one of the deadliest years for air travel in the past decade. With only one confirmed survivor, yesterday's tragedy brings this year's total airflight fatalities to 460 in just the first six months of the year. So, is air travel really becoming more dangerous? MailOnline spoke to the experts to find out. While the aviation industry maintains exceptionally high safety standards, the recent string of high-profile incidents has raised concerns that flying may be becoming more risky. The average number of deaths during flights per year currently stands at 284, according to Jan-Arwed Richter, founder of Jacdec, a German consulting firm that tracks aviation safety. That means 2025 has already had almost double the average number of air travel deaths. Mr Richter told Bloomberg: 'This year still has more than six months to go, so this could be concerning if this rate of fatal accidents would go on.' While many people will likely now have concerns about the safety of air travel, experts reassure that flying is not getting more dangerous. Dr Simon Bennett, director of the civil safety and security unit at the University of Leicester, told MailOnline: 'That perception is understandable because safety goes through peaks and troughs. 'So if you take a snapshot at a particular time it can either look like things are getting seriously dangerous or that things are getting seriously safe.' 2025's high level of fatalities comes on the back of one of the safest periods in the history of air travel. Is flying becoming more dangerous? This year alone there have been 460 deaths due to aircraft crashes. The average for most years is just 284, putting 2025 at nearly double the yearly average in just six months. However, experts say that air travel is not becoming more dangerous. Air safety incidents produce big spikes in fatality numbers which skew short-term averages. Over the longer term, air travel is actually safer than ever before. Experts say that air travel is significantly safer than driving or most other forms of transport. In 2023, industry groups found that there was not a single fatal incident throughout the entire year. However, a series of high-profile events starting from the end of 2024 have grabbed the public attention. While these incidents create an illusion of escalating danger, this is not reflected in the statistical reality. As the Air India tragedy unfolded, the UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch published its annual safety review for 2024. This review concluded: 'Commercial aviation remains one of the safest forms of public transport, with global accident rates continuing their long-term decline.' Dr Bennett points out that aviation experts only look at averages over longer periods, to avoid being biased by big spikes associated with single incidents. 'If you take a 20-year snapshot, then air safety is unequivocally improving,' he explained. However, the experts also points out that it is extremely difficult to convince people of this fact. 'You will be safer five miles above the earth than you would be at home, that is a fact. But if you tell the public that they won't believe you,' he said. 'My deepest sympathies go out to those who've been affected, but I would beg the public to consider such events in the widest possible context.' As for what has caused this 'trough' in air flight safety, there may be a number of reasons with economic causes being the most likely. Dr Bennett says that downturns in the fortunes of airflight industries lead to reduced investment in safety which can spark an increase in near misses and incidents. Until the official investigation concludes, it is impossible to confirm exactly what led to the crash of Indian Airlines Flight 171. However, it currently appears that environmental and mechanical issues may have combined to prevent the flight from gaining altitude properly. Dr Sammy Diasinos, an aerodynamics researcher at Macquarie University, says: 'The B787 has very powerful engines and can easily operate if one engine fails, so for this accident to occur, we would be looking at a very rare double engine failure. 'I would expect this highlights an environmental cause rather than an engine or maintenance issue. 'It would be very unusual for two engines on the same aircraft to be on the exact same maintenance schedule, making simultaneous mechanical failure unlikely.' Experts point out that the hot conditions and the flight's full fuel would have meant it needed extra time to gain altitude - something which it appeared unable to do. With temperatures on the runway at 37°C (98°F), the flight would have needed significantly more lift to gain altitude. Additionally, Flight 171 appeared to have both its landing gear deployed and flaps retracted at an altitude of only 600ft (182m) causing it to have a lower lift. Murray Terwey, an aviation lecturer at Edith Conway University, said: 'Aircrew have been known in the past to retract the flap instead of the gear by mistake. 'This, in the early stages of flight, can lead to a significant loss of lift which can lead to an accident.' However, the exact combination of factors which led to this incident will only be revealed in a full investigation by the Indian Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau. The odds of dying in a plane crash are about one in 11 million, but the chances of surviving depend on your seating choice. An aviation expert reveals a 44 per cent fatality rate for travelers sitting in the aisle seats in the middle of the craft, compared with 28 per cent for central rear seats. Doug Drury, a professor at Central Queensland University, said because the aisle seats do not offer a buffer on one side, the passenger will likely be struck with crash properties. Travelers unable to secure the safest seats may have better luck surviving in the middle and window seats of the middle part of the plane. However, the chances of dying in an aircraft accident have less to do with where you sit and more with the circumstances surrounding the crash.
South China Morning Post
2 days ago
- General
- South China Morning Post
Air India crash in Ahmedabad makes 2025 deadliest aviation year in a decade
The crash of Air India Flight 171 has turned 2025 into one of the deadliest years in the past decade for civil aviation. There were 242 people aboard the Boeing 787, according to the airline, when the plane went down in a fireball on Thursday soon after taking off from Ahmedabad, India. The accident is likely to produce more fatalities, given that it crashed into a residential area. There is only one known survivor. Globally, the number of civil aviation fatalities has reached more than 460 in 2025, according to Jan-Arwed Richter, founder of Jacdec, a German consulting firm that tracks aviation safety. The average over the past decade is 284 based on the firm's methodology. Commercial aviation safety reached a high-water mark in 2023, when industry groups said there were no fatal crashes. Since then, a number of high-profile incidents have grabbed headlines. The deadliest years for civil aviation in the past decade were 2018 and 2015, with more than 500 fatalities each, based on Jacdec's figures. Richter urged the media not to jump to conclusions while investigators search for the cause of the Air India crash. 'And I want to emphasise the bigger picture here,' Richter said. 'Air travel is and remains the safest way of going from one place to another.' Thursday's Air India crash is on track to become the worst commercial airline disaster since MH17 in 2014. The Malaysian Airlines flight, shot down over Ukraine, left 298 people dead, according to the Aviation Safety Network, which tracks fatal crashes. Aeroplane crash in Canada highlights importance of seat belt safety The lone survivor As Air India Flight AI171 descended towards its doom on Thursday, Ramesh Vishwaskumar sat in the first row of economy class – headed for some of the most harrowing and luckiest moments of his life. After the Boeing 787 Dreamliner crashed into a densely populated district of the western Indian city of Ahmedabad, Vishwaskumar managed to get out of the plane. He was injured, but alive. All 241 others on board had perished. A video that has since gone viral on social media shows a slightly bloodied man walking near the crash site, surrounded by an incredulous crowd. 'Thirty seconds after take-off, there was a loud noise,' Vishwaskumar told local reporters, according to the Hindustan Times newspaper. 'There were dead bodies around me. I got scared. I got up and ran. There were pieces of the plane everywhere.' Media outlets identified him as a UK citizen aged 40, from the city of Leicester. It is a tale of survival that stands out in an aircraft accident that ranks as the worst disaster in civil aviation in more than a decade. The cause of the crash, which killed scores more on the ground as the fully fuelled aircraft tore into buildings and exploded into flames, remains unknown. Members of the local community stand outside the family home of Ramesh Viswashkumar in Leicester, Britain. Viswashkumar is the lone survivor of the London-bound Air India aircraft crash in Ahmedabad, India. Photo: Reuters What went wrong? The Boeing Co. 787 Dreamliner appeared to not achieve sufficient thrust as it lumbered down nearly the full length of a 3,352-metre (11,000-foot) runway, a distance that should have been more than enough to take off, said Bob Mann, head of aviation consultant RW Mann & Co. That could stem from a misconfiguration of the plane before take-off or incorrect weight data entered into the plane's computer system that determines how much power is needed to get off the ground, he said. Mann cautioned that his views were unofficial and not corroborated by data or cockpit voice recorders, which have yet to be recovered from the site. The 787's landing gear was never retracted, which normally occurs just after take-off, said Jeff Guzzetti, a former accident investigation chief for the US Federal Aviation Administration. Investigators from the US National Transportation Safety Board and FAA will travel to India to assist with that government's investigation of the crash. Additional clues should emerge when authorities recover the plane's flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder, the so-called black boxes containing key information about what was happening to aeroplane systems and pilots in the flight's final moments.
