Air India crash brings aviation death toll to 460 this year. So, is it still safe to fly?

Daily Mail​

20 hours ago

This year is proving one of the deadliest in the past decade for air travel.
With at least 260 dead after the Air India crash this week, aviation experts say fatalities have reached 460 in the first six months of 2025.
Given the latest tragedy, DailyMail.com investigates whether air travel really is becoming more dangerous.
While the aviation industry maintains exceptionally high safety standards, the recent string of high-profile incidents has raised fears flying is getting riskier.
The average number of deaths during flights per year stands at 284, according to Jan-Arwed Richter, founder of Jacdec, a German consulting firm that tracks aviation safety.
That means 2025 has already had almost double the average number of air travel deaths.
Richter told Bloomberg: 'This year still has more than six months to go, so this could be concerning if this rate of fatal accidents would go on.'
While many people will likely now have concerns about the safety of air travel, experts stress flying is not getting more dangerous.
Dr Simon Bennett, director of the civil safety and security unit at the University of Leicester, in England, told DailyMail.com: 'That perception is understandable because safety goes through peaks and troughs.
'So if you take a snapshot at a particular time it can either look like things are getting seriously dangerous or that things are getting seriously safe.'
The high level of fatalities in 2025 comes on the back of one of the safest periods in the history of air travel.
In 2023, industry groups found there was not a single fatal incident throughout the entire year.
However, a series of high-profile events starting from the end of 2024 have grabbed the public attention.
While these incidents create an illusion of escalating danger, this is not reflected in the statistical reality.
As the Air India tragedy unfolded, the UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch published its annual safety review for 2024.
This review concluded: 'Commercial aviation remains one of the safest forms of public transport, with global accident rates continuing their long-term decline.'
Dr Bennett points out that aviation experts only look at averages over longer periods, to avoid being biased by big spikes associated with single incidents.
'If you take a 20-year snapshot, then air safety is unequivocally improving,' he explained.
However, the experts also points out that it is extremely difficult to convince people of this fact.
'You will be safer five miles above than you would be at home - that is a fact.
'But if you tell the public that they won't believe you,' he said.
'My deepest sympathies go out to those who've been affected, but I would beg the public to consider such events in the widest possible context.'
As for what has caused this 'trough' in air flight safety, there may be a number of reasons with economic causes being the most likely.
Dr Bennett says that downturns in the fortunes of airflight industries lead to reduced investment in safety, which can spark an increase in near misses and incidents.
Until the official investigation concludes, it is impossible to confirm exactly what led to the crash of Air India Flight 171.
However, it appears environmental and mechanical issues may have combined to prevent the flight from gaining altitude properly.
Dr Sammy Diasinos, an aerodynamics researcher at Macquarie University, in Sydney, Australia, says: 'The B787 has very powerful engines and can easily operate if one engine fails, so for this accident to occur, we would be looking at a very rare double engine failure.
'I would expect this highlights an environmental cause rather than an engine or maintenance issue.
'It would be very unusual for two engines on the same aircraft to be on the exact same maintenance schedule, making simultaneous mechanical failure unlikely.'
Experts point out that the hot conditions and the flight's full fuel would have meant it needed extra time to gain altitude - something which it appeared unable to do.
With temperatures on the runway at 37°C (98°F), the flight would have needed significantly more lift to gain altitude.
Additionally, Flight 171 appeared to have both its landing gear deployed and flaps retracted at an altitude of only 600ft (182m) causing it to have a lower lift.
Murray Terwey, an aviation lecturer at Edith Cowan University in Western Australia, said: 'Aircrew have been known in the past to retract the flap instead of the gear by mistake.
'This, in the early stages of flight, can lead to a significant loss of lift which can lead to an accident.'
However, the exact combination of factors which led to this incident will only be revealed in a full investigation by the Indian Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau.