Polls open for key Upper House election that could shake Japanese politics
Opinion polls have indicated the ruling Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition could lose its long-held majority in the upper chamber, a development that would likely exacerbate instability amid significant challenges at home and abroad.
Since the Lower House election, which saw the coalition fall short of a majority, the LDP hasn't been able to rehabilitate its standing in the eyes of many voters. Sunday's vote will offer a snapshot of the current mood around Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who also serves as LDP leader and whose political standing has long been tarnished by low approval ratings.
With 75 of its seats not up for re-election in the Upper House, 50 is the number the coalition is aiming for to retain a majority in the chamber. Komeito's declining fortunes, apparent in the recent election for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, are contributing to a growing sense of anxiety, however.
A variety of scenarios await the country should the coalition lose its majority — ranging from an enlarged ruling coalition to an opposition-led chamber, or even a minority leadership in both chambers.
Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan leader Yoshihiko Noda stumps in the city of Fukuoka on Friday. |
JIJI
The last time an LDP government lost a majority in the Upper House was in 2007 during the first stint of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who resigned soon after the election.
Meanwhile, the opposition is expected to make strong gains nationwide, most notably in the 32 single-seat constituencies set to sway the outcome of the election.
A Kyodo News poll conducted in the final stages of the campaign showed that opposition candidates are leading in 14 constituencies, including long-time LDP strongholds such as Kagoshima and Miyazaki. The LDP is ahead in only nine of them.
The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan will likely maintain its position as the largest opposition force in both chambers of parliament, further reducing its gap to the LDP. The opposition camp, however, remains largely fragmented.
Voters try to capture photos and videos as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is also the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, speaks to voters in Yokohama on Friday. |
REUTERS
Whether the Democratic Party for the People — the big winner of the last Lower House election — can build on that momentum will be closely watched.
Sanseito, a party with only three seats in the Lower House, is also expected to garner wide support across the country, possibly gaining seats in urban districts.
On the other hand, polls have found the Japanese Communist Party and Nippon Ishin no Kai will face uphill battles to expand their foothold in the legislative arena.
Two issues have shaped the 17-day campaign: rising prices and the handling of policies related to the foreign community.
While all opposition parties are calling for tax cuts to ease the pain of inflation, the ruling coalition has pledged cash handouts to everyone, including foreign residents, and targeted support for child-rearing and low-income households.
Regardless of the outcome of the election, economic issues will be at the top of the agenda in the coming weeks and months — 'reciprocal' tariffs of 25% will be charged on almost all Japanese goods entering the United States starting Aug. 1 unless a compromise with the administration of President Donald Trump is reached.
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Japan Times
an hour ago
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Trump team hears pitches on access to Myanmar's rare earths
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Among those present were advisers to Vance on Asian affairs and trade. Vance himself did not attend, the source said. Castillo said he suggested to U.S. officials that the United States could play a peace-broker role in Myanmar and urged Washington to take a page out of China's playbook by first brokering a bilateral self-governance deal between the Myanmar military and the KIA. Myanmar's ruling junta and the KIA did not respond to a request for comment. While Vance's office declined to comment on Castillo's visit to the White House, one person familiar with the situation said the Trump administration has been reviewing policy on Myanmar, also known as Burma, since Trump's January inauguration and had weighed direct discussions with the junta over trade and tariffs. The White House declined to comment. 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Soldiers of KIA man their position at the front line near Mai Ja Yang in Kachin state in 2013. | REUTERS He said he had repeatedly urged officials in Washington to pursue a deal with the KIA that includes cooperation with U.S. partners in the Quad grouping — specifically India — for resource processing and eventual heavy rare earths supply to the United States. What is known as the Quad grouping brings together the United States with India, as well as Australia and Japan. India's Ministry of Mines did not respond to an email seeking comment. An Indian government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said he was unaware of whether the Trump administration had communicated any such plan to India but stressed that such a move would take several years to materialize because it would require infrastructure to be built for processing rare earths. Another pitch to the White House was more in line with the Myanmar policy Trump inherited from former President Joe Biden. Sean Turnell, an Australian economist and former adviser to Suu Kyi, whose government the junta toppled in 2021, said his rare earths proposal was to encourage the Trump administration to continue supporting Myanmar's democratic forces. In a visit to Washington earlier this year, Turnell said he met with officials from the State Department, the White House National Security Council and Congress, and urged continued support for the country's opposition. "One of the pitches was that the U.S. could access rare earths via KIA etc.," he said, adding that the group wants to diversify away from China. There have also been multiple discussions between U.S. officials and the Kachin rebel group on rare earths through interlocutors in recent months, said a person with knowledge of the talks, which have not previously been reported. Obstacles In the years since the coup, Myanmar has been ravaged by civil war, and the junta and its allies have been pushed out of much of the country's borderlands, including the rare earths mining belt currently under control of the KIA. A rare earths industry source said that U.S. officials had reached out around three months ago, following the Kachin takeover of the Chipwe-Pangwa mining belt, to ask for an overview of the Kachin rare earths mining industry. The person added that any new, major rare earths supply chain, which would require moving the minerals out of remote and mountainous Kachin State into India and onward, may not be feasible. Swedish author Bertil Lintner, a leading expert on Kachin State, said the idea of the United States obtaining rare earths from Myanmar from under the nose of China seemed "totally crazy" given the unforgiving mountainous terrain and primitive logistics. "If they want to transport the rare earths from these mines, which are all on the Chinese border, to India, there's only one road," Lintner said. "And the Chinese would certainly step in and stop it." For its part, the junta appears eager to engage with Washington after years of isolation. When Trump threatened new tariffs on Myanmar's U.S.-bound exports this month as part of his global trade offensive, he did so in a signed letter addressed personally to the junta's chief, Min Aung Hlaing. Min Aung Hlaing responded by lavishing praise on Trump for his "strong leadership" while asking for lower rates and the lifting of sanctions. He said he was ready to send a negotiating team to Washington, if needed. Senior Trump administration officials said the decision to lift some sanctions was unrelated to the general's letter.


NHK
an hour ago
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Japan-US trade deal shakes things up
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Japan Times
2 hours ago
- Japan Times
North Korea says Trump must drop denuclearization policy if he wants to meet Kim
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