19-07-2025
Polls open for key Upper House election that could shake Japanese politics
Voters head to the polls Sunday for an Upper House election that could considerably alter the Japanese political landscape.
Opinion polls have indicated the ruling Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition could lose its long-held majority in the upper chamber, a development that would likely exacerbate instability amid significant challenges at home and abroad.
Since the Lower House election, which saw the coalition fall short of a majority, the LDP hasn't been able to rehabilitate its standing in the eyes of many voters. Sunday's vote will offer a snapshot of the current mood around Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who also serves as LDP leader and whose political standing has long been tarnished by low approval ratings.
With 75 of its seats not up for re-election in the Upper House, 50 is the number the coalition is aiming for to retain a majority in the chamber. Komeito's declining fortunes, apparent in the recent election for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, are contributing to a growing sense of anxiety, however.
A variety of scenarios await the country should the coalition lose its majority — ranging from an enlarged ruling coalition to an opposition-led chamber, or even a minority leadership in both chambers.
Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan leader Yoshihiko Noda stumps in the city of Fukuoka on Friday. |
JIJI
The last time an LDP government lost a majority in the Upper House was in 2007 during the first stint of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who resigned soon after the election.
Meanwhile, the opposition is expected to make strong gains nationwide, most notably in the 32 single-seat constituencies set to sway the outcome of the election.
A Kyodo News poll conducted in the final stages of the campaign showed that opposition candidates are leading in 14 constituencies, including long-time LDP strongholds such as Kagoshima and Miyazaki. The LDP is ahead in only nine of them.
The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan will likely maintain its position as the largest opposition force in both chambers of parliament, further reducing its gap to the LDP. The opposition camp, however, remains largely fragmented.
Voters try to capture photos and videos as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is also the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, speaks to voters in Yokohama on Friday. |
REUTERS
Whether the Democratic Party for the People — the big winner of the last Lower House election — can build on that momentum will be closely watched.
Sanseito, a party with only three seats in the Lower House, is also expected to garner wide support across the country, possibly gaining seats in urban districts.
On the other hand, polls have found the Japanese Communist Party and Nippon Ishin no Kai will face uphill battles to expand their foothold in the legislative arena.
Two issues have shaped the 17-day campaign: rising prices and the handling of policies related to the foreign community.
While all opposition parties are calling for tax cuts to ease the pain of inflation, the ruling coalition has pledged cash handouts to everyone, including foreign residents, and targeted support for child-rearing and low-income households.
Regardless of the outcome of the election, economic issues will be at the top of the agenda in the coming weeks and months — 'reciprocal' tariffs of 25% will be charged on almost all Japanese goods entering the United States starting Aug. 1 unless a compromise with the administration of President Donald Trump is reached.
