Market Analysis: June 23rd, 2025
Global Markets
Canadian Markets
Canada's main stock index advanced modestly as traders positioned themselves ahead of Tuesday's release of the country's May Consumer Price Index (CPI) by Statistics Canada. Expectations are high that inflation will continue to moderate after falling to an annual pace of 1.7% in April, largely due to declining energy prices following the removal of the federal carbon tax on certain fuels. While lower inflation may offer the Bank of Canada more room to consider rate cuts, JPMorgan analysts remain cautious, warning of 'considerable' downside risk for the Canadian economy and a potentially weaker performance for the TSX, citing weak domestic growth and high consumer debt levels.
American Markets
In the United States, equity markets initially moved higher, with markets slipping as traders booked profits, driven by a mix of geopolitical concerns and macroeconomic data. Domestic data pronts pointed to ongoing weakness in the U.S. housing market, with high mortgage rates, inflated home prices, and persistent macroeconomic pressures weighing on buyer demand and new home sales.
European Markets
European markets ended the day lower in choppy trading, reflecting a mix of regional and global headwinds. Spain's trade deficit widened significantly—nearly 49% year-over-year for the January to April period—raising concerns about the country's economic balance and exposing vulnerabilities in its external sector.
In the UK, the FTSE declined alongside the pound, which hit a five-week low against the U.S. dollar amid renewed concerns over Middle East instability and its potential impact on energy supplies. Recent official data showed the economy shrank by 0.3% in a single month, underscoring the fragile state of the British economy, keeping traders on edge.
Corporate News
Ares Management Corp Ares has acquired a 20% stake in Italian energy firm Eni's Plenitude unit for $2.3 billion, valuing the business at over €12 billion (including debt). The deal supports Eni's strategy to co-develop businesses with external partners.
Bank of New York Mellon Corp & Northern Trust Corp BNY Mellon has expressed interest in a potential merger with Northern Trust. While talks have occurred between CEOs, no formal bid has been made yet. BNY's market cap stands at $65.55B versus Northern Trust's $21.76B.
BP PLC BP is reportedly considering Sam Laidlaw, ex-CEO of Centrica, as a potential successor to Chair Helge Lund, who recently faced shareholder criticism and diminished support at the AGM.
BXP Inc JPMorgan raised BXP's price target to $78 (from $72), citing better office leasing activity and stronger long-term growth outlook.
Eli Lilly and Co Lilly's experimental weight-loss pill, orforglipron, showed promising blood sugar-lowering and weight-loss effects in diabetics. Phase 3 non-diabetic trial data is expected in Q3 2025, with regulatory filings in 2026.
FedEx Corp Founder and former CEO Frederick Smith has died. Smith, who launched FedEx in 1973 with 14 planes, recently served as executive chairman and played a key role in strategic global matters.
Ford Motor Co & Oshkosh Corp Senate Republicans failed to block the USPS from keeping 7,200 electric vehicles and charging stations (from Ford and Oshkosh). USPS plans to expand to 66,000 EVs by 2028, with infrastructure costs already incurred.
Howard Hughes Inc JPMorgan downgraded the target price to $76 (from $82), citing uncertainty from a shift in strategy away from core real estate projects.
KKR & Co Inc KKR lost a bid to Advent for UK-based Spectris, a $5.9B takeover deal. However, KKR remains in active due diligence and may still revise its offer.
News Corp CEO Robert Thomson's contract has been extended through 2030. He has led major strategic moves, including the $2.19B sale of Foxtel to DAZN.
Novo Nordisk A/S Full Phase 3 data on its obesity drug CagriSema show positive results with mainly mild-to-moderate gastrointestinal side effects. Regulatory submissions are expected in Q1 2026.
Shell PLC Shell's LNG Canada project has produced its first LNG in Kitimat, BC, ahead of its first export shipment mid-year. The facility's Train 1 can produce 5.6 mtpa, with a total future capacity of 14 mtpa.
Tesla Inc Tesla quietly launched a pilot of self-driving robotaxis in Austin, Texas. About 10 vehicles are being tested with safety monitors onboard. This marks Tesla's first paid autonomous service trial.
Wolfspeed Inc The chipmaker is preparing to file for bankruptcy under a pre-arranged plan, cutting debt by 70% and gaining $275M in financing. It aims to exit bankruptcy by Q3 2025 while continuing operations.
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