Striking Fordow will not solve the Iran problem
'Trump doesn't have a taste for war,' someone said to me recently. 'War's bad for business.' This appears to be true so far; we have certainly seen Trump try his hand at peace-making in Gaza, Ukraine and Iran with consistently poor results. But history is full of examples of far more principled men than Trump acquiring a taste for war through a thirst for power and money. And we all know what Donald thinks about power and money. If this war, and America's involvement in it, could be presented to Trump as a step towards peace and money and more power, then we should not be surprised in the slightest if he says, 'Ok. Go ahead.'
We hear the 'no surrender' messages coming out of Tehran (notwithstanding rumours of Khamenei's death overnight). It seems then a question of when not if America joins in.
But striking Fordow will not solve the problem that this war has created. Iran's threats to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (hidden among the news cycle) give us a glimpse of the real pariah state in Tehran that might follow; unmoored from global norms, driven by a strong sense of vengeance and injustice and still limping on somehow. And with not an IAEA weapons inspector in sight, very much like the situation we have in North Korea. A decisive defeat for the Islamic Republic is now the only option left for America and Israel, for anything less than this would almost certainly give the world yet another broken nation in a troubled region full of conflict. Does Trump's administration possess the strategic attention span or will require to construct a strategy to rebuild what he has destroyed? Not a chance. And especially not now that the USA doesn't have a civilian aid agency (previously USAID) through whom this essential work would be carried out. Israel has no appetite or expertise for that sort of thing, either.
This scenario is what worries the Gulf countries, of whom Saudi Arabia is the most prosperous and diplomatically powerful. Had you asked Riyadh four years ago if they'd have liked to see a non-Islamic Republic Iran, they'd have said yes. There is no love lost between Tehran and Riyadh, placing to one side the petro-dollar fuelled hiatus when the Shah was in power. But from Riyadh to Ankara, to Bahrain and beyond, the fear now is that perhaps the price to pay for removing Khamenei (decades of instability and conflict) is simply too high, no matter sectarian fault lines. And so, they are caught between desiring a swift end to the conflict and knowing that swift ends to conflicts in this region are illusory goals that belong to the fevered imagination of people like Netanyahu and Trump. And these views are distorted by the fog of war and ego respectively.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Daily Record
7 minutes ago
- Daily Record
Keir Starmer to join European leaders for Trump-Zelensky meeting in Washington
The Prime Minister and a host of European leaders will travel to Washington DC in a show of solidarity with the Ukrainian leader. Sir Keir Starmer will join Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders for a meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House on Monday, Downing Street has said. The Prime Minister and a host of European leaders will travel to Washington DC in a show of solidarity with the Ukrainian leader, whose last visit to the Oval Office ended in a tumultuous spat with Mr Trump. The US president is said to be mulling over Russia's demands to bring an end to the war, which include a land grab of two occupied Ukrainian regions: Donetsk and Luhansk. Several media outlets have reported Mr Trump is planning to urge his Ukrainian counterpart to agree to the conditions as part of a peace deal to end the war. The meeting follows the US president's summit with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, where little in the way of progress appeared to be made. However in the summit's aftermath, Mr Trump appeared to adopt a change of tone in his language about brokering a peace deal, moving away from insisting that a ceasefire is needed before a long-term agreement to end the war is made. This appeared to echo Mr Putin 's refusal to lay down arms ahead of a sustained peace. Other leaders making the journey to Washington with Sir Keir include France's Emmanuel Macron, Germany's Friedrich Merz, Finland's Alexander Stubb, EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Nato chief Mark Rutte. The leaders are likely travelling to the White House with the aim of avoiding a repeat performance of February's public bust-up between Mr Zelensky and the American president, after which Mr Trump temporarily suspended aid to Ukraine. Downing Street insisted Sir Keir and other allies stand ready to support the next phase of talks to end the war. "At the meeting that will take place at the White House tomorrow, the Prime Minister, with other European partners, stands ready to support this next phase of further talks and will reaffirm that his backing for Ukraine will continue as long as it takes," a statement from No 10 said. Speaking in Brussels, Ms von der Leyen said Ukraine cannot be carved up without it having a seat at the table in negotiations. Standing alongside Mr Zelensky at a press conference ahead of the so-called coalition of the willing meeting, the EU chief said: "With regards to any territorial questions in Ukraine, our position is clear: international borders cannot be changed by force. These are decisions to be made by Ukraine and Ukraine alone, and these decisions cannot be taken without Ukraine at the table." On Saturday Sir Keir commended Mr Trump for bringing the conflict "closer than ever" to an end. The Prime Minister, along with France and Germany's leaders, will host a call of the coalition of the willing on Sunday afternoon. The coalition force aims to police a future peace deal by putting troops on the ground in Ukraine to deter Russian aggression. European leaders on Saturday suggested Mr Trump had indicated he is now willing to provide American air support for the alliance, a "security guarantee" said to be vital to its operation. Steve Witkoff, Mr Trump's special envoy, said Mr Putin had agreed to Nato-like protection for Ukraine for the first time at the Alaska summit. "We were able to win the following concession: That the United States could offer Article 5-like protection, which is one of the real reasons why Ukraine wants to be in Nato," he told CNN. Writing on social media on Sunday morning, the Ukrainian leader railed against Russia's refusal to lay down arms temporarily before agreeing to end the war. Mr Zelensky said: "We see that Russia rebuffs numerous calls for a ceasefire and has not yet determined when it will stop the killing. "This complicates the situation." He added: "If they lack the will to carry out a simple order to stop the strikes, it may take a lot of effort to get Russia to have the will to implement far greater - peaceful coexistence with its neighbours for decades. "But together we are working for peace and security. Stopping the killing is a key element of stopping the war." Mr Zelensky was expected to attend Sunday afternoon's video call with leaders from the coalition of the willing, which was scheduled to begin at 2pm UK time.
Western Telegraph
32 minutes ago
- Western Telegraph
Ukraine needs long-term security guarantees, Taoiseach says
Micheal Martin attended a virtual leaders' meeting of the so-called 'coalition of the willing' in support of Ukraine on Sunday. The call was convened by Sir Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. I welcomed the opportunity to join other European leaders today to discuss developments on ending the war in Ukraine. We had a very useful engagement with President Zelenskyy as he prepares to meet with President Trump tomorrow in Washington. — Micheál Martin (@MichealMartinTD) August 17, 2025 On Monday, Volodymyr Zelensky is meeting Donald Trump with several EU leaders, including Sir Keir, also travelling to Washington DC in a show of solidarity with the Ukrainian president. Mr Martin, who will not be in Washington, said he had assured Mr Zelensky on Sunday that Ireland will 'continue to steadfastly support Ukraine'. EU leaders have agreed that sanctions and wider economic measures 'will be reinforced' if Russia continues its military action. The Taoiseach also said that he believes Ukraine needs 'long-term security guarantees'. Donald Trump, right, shakes the hand of Russia's President Vladimir Putin during a joint press conference in Alaska following their talks over Ukraine (Jae C Hong/AP) Speaking after Sunday's online conference, Mr Martin said: 'I welcomed the opportunity to join other European leaders today to discuss developments on ending the war in Ukraine. 'We had a very useful engagement with President Zelensky as he prepares to meet with President Trump tomorrow in Washington. 'I welcome the initiative by President Trump to seek the ending of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. Ireland, together with our European partners, continues to contribute to these efforts to achieve a just and lasting peace for Ukraine.' The meeting of European leaders follows the US president's summit with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. I also reiterated Ireland's readiness to contribute to any peacekeeping force that is in line with the UN Charter Micheal Martin Mr Martin said it is 'essential that Ukraine is a full participant' in any discussions regarding its future. He said: 'I therefore welcome that President Zelensky will meet with President Trump in Washington tomorrow, together with other European leaders. Mr Martin said he stressed that international law and principles of independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity need to be respected for security in the region. 'It will be up to Ukraine to make decisions on its territory. International borders must not be changed by force. 'I fully agree that Ukraine needs strong, credible, long-term security guarantees. This will mean sustained support from Europe, the United States and other partners. 'Ireland stands ready to play our part. Earlier this year we committed to providing non-lethal military support to Ukraine and we will look to do more. 'At today's meeting, I also reiterated Ireland's readiness to contribute to any peacekeeping force that is in line with the UN Charter.' French President Emmanuel Macron attending the video conference with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky (Philippe Magoni/AP) The Taoiseach said Ireland will also continue to support Ukraine's EU membership ambitions, adding that Russia 'cannot have a veto' on the matter. 'Our joint efforts for peace should be combined with firm and co-ordinated pressure on Russia to agree to a ceasefire and engage seriously with negotiations on a just and lasting peace. 'We agreed today that sanctions and wider economic measures will be reinforced if Russia does not stop the killing. 'The human dimension and accountability must also be at the centre of a just and lasting peace for Ukraine. 'Russia must urgently return Ukrainian children who they have abducted as well as prisoners of war and civilians being held unlawfully.'
The Herald Scotland
2 hours ago
- The Herald Scotland
US envoy says Putin agreed to protections for Ukraine as part of Trump summit
Mr Witkoff said it was the first time he had heard Mr Putin agree to that. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, speaking at a news conference in Brussels with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, said that 'we welcome President Trump's willingness to contribute to Article 5-like security guarantees for Ukraine, and the 'Coalition of the willing' – including the European Union – is ready to do its share'. White House envoy Steve Witkoff (Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP) Mr Witkoff, offering some of the first details of what was discussed at Friday's summit in Alaska, said the two sides agreed to 'robust security guarantees that I would describe as game-changing'. He added that Russia said that it would make a legislative commitment not to go after any additional territory in Ukraine. Mr Zelensky thanked the United States for recent signals that Washington is willing to support security guarantees for Ukraine, but said the details remained unclear. 'It is important that America agrees to work with Europe to provide security guarantees for Ukraine,' he said. 'But there are no details how it will work, and what America's role will be, Europe's role will be and what the EU can do, and this is our main task, we need security to work in practice like Article 5 of Nato, and we consider EU accession to be part of the security guarantees.' Mr Witkoff defended Mr Trump's decision to abandon his push for Russia to agree to an immediate ceasefire, saying the president had pivoted toward a peace deal because so much progress was made. 'We covered almost all the other issues necessary for a peace deal,' Mr Witkoff said, without elaborating. 'We began to see some moderation in the way they're thinking about getting to a final peace deal,' he said. US secretary of state Marco Rubio said there would be 'additional consequences' as Mr Trump warned before meeting Mr Putin, if they failed to reach a ceasefire. But Mr Rubio said there was not going to be any sort of deal on a truce reached when Ukraine was not at the talks. 'Now, ultimately, if there isn't a peace agreement, if there isn't an end of this war, the president's been clear, there are going to be consequences,' Mr Rubio said on ABC. 'But we're trying to avoid that. And the way we're trying to avoid those consequences is with an even better consequence, which is peace, the end of hostilities.' US secretary of state Marco Rubio said there remained 'some big areas of disagreement' between the parties (Jae C Hong/AP) Mr Rubio, who is also Mr Trump's national security adviser, said he did not believe issuing new sanctions on Russia would force Mr Putin to accept a ceasefire, noting that the latter was not off the table but that 'the best way to end this conflict is through a full peace deal'. 'The minute you issue new sanctions, your ability to get them to the table, our ability to get them to table will be severely diminished,' Mr Rubio said on NBC. He also said 'we're not at the precipice of a peace agreement' and that getting there would not be easy and would take a lot of work. 'We made progress in the sense that we identified potential areas of agreement, but there remains some big areas of disagreement. So we're still a long ways off,' Mr Rubio said.
