Andrew Cuomo's comfortable lead over Zohran Mamdani cut by 50% in home stretch before Dem mayoral primary: poll
Surging socialist Zohran Mamdani is making up ground in the Democratic mayoral primary — cutting frontrunner Andrew Cuomo's lead in half from just a month ago, according to a poll released Wednesday.
In the ranked-choice voting contest, Cuomo prevails 55% to 45% against Mamdani in the 7th round, the new Marist College Institute for Public Opinion survey found.
That's a big drop from a poll Marist conducted in May, when Cuomo led Mamdani 60% to 40% after all the other candidates were eliminated and second preference votes transferred to the two finalists.
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5 The most recent Marist poll had Cuomo up 55% to 45% against Mamdani in the 7th round.
Stephen Yang
The findings come with early voting in full swing — and less than a week before the June 24 primary day finale.
One of the big changes in the poll was Mamdani boosting his support among Latino voters, jumping to 41% from just 20% last month.
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By comparison, Cuomo's support with Latino voters dipped to 36%, from 41% in last month's Marist poll.
'That was the surprise in the poll — absolutely,' Marist polling director Lee Miringoff said.
5 One of the big changes in the poll was Mamdani boosting his support among Latino voters, jumping to 41% from just 20% last month.
Paul Martinka
Fellow Democratic socialist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Mamdani since the last poll, possibly lifting the 33-year Queens assemblyman with younger Latino voters, Miringoff surmised.
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The rank-choice results exclude the 11% of voters who are still undecided, down from 17% in May.
No other candidate broke 10% among likely Democratic voters in the first round in ranked choice voting: City Comptroller Brad Lander got 8%; Council Speaker Adrienne Adams 7%; former city Comptroller Scott Stringer 4%, and Brooklyn state Sen. Zellnor Myrie and former Bronx Assemblyman Michael Blake 2% apiece.
The survey of 1,350 like Democratic voters was conducted from June 9-12, before last week's second and final mayoral debate.
5 Former New York Governor and New York City mayoral candidate Andrew Cuomo holds a union campaign rally at Union Square in Lower Manhattan.
Stephen Yang
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'It's truly a two person race,' Miringoff said.
Cuomo started out with the support of 43% of Democrats in the first round, followed by Mamdani with 31%, the poll showed.
When undecideds were included, Cuomo got the backing of 38% of likely Democratic primary voters to 27% for Mamdani — up from 18% last month.
Cuomo's frontrunner status was buffeted by the support of black and older voters.
Nearly half of black voters — 48% — support Cuomo compared to just 11% for Mamdani and 12% for Adrienne Adams, a black lawmaker from southeast Queens.
5 Senator Bernie Sanders backed Zohran Mamdani for NYC Mayor on Tuesday, Jun 17, 2025
Paul Martinka
But 21% of African American voters were still undecided, by far the highest of any racial group.
Mamdani captured 52% of voters under the age of 45 compared to just 18% for Cuomo.
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Conversely, Cuomo clobbered Mamdani among voters over 45 — 47% to 17%.
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In the later rounds, Mamdani's support jumps to 62% from voters under 45, while Cuomo's backing among older voters hits 63%.
Marist predicts that 70% of those who vote will be 45 or older, which benefits Cuomo.
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But the calculus benefits Mamdani if he can drive a higher percentage of younger voters to come and vote for him than the polls project.
5 NYC Mayoral candidate Andrew Cuomo gets a hero's welcome as he receives the endorsement from the city's organized labor unions, 707 8th ave., NYC.
Matthew McDermott
White voters were evenly split with 32% for Cuomo and 31% for Mamdani. But Cuomo could benefit from late-breaking support from blocs of voters in the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community.
The first ranked-choice mayoral primary election was in 2021, and the results then indicate that the race between Cuomo and Mamdani could be closer than the polls indicate.
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In 2021, the Marist College poll released just days before the primary as well had Mayor Eric Adams leading rival Katherine Garcia by a much smaller margin in the first round, 25% to 17%
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But the final round was similar to the Cuomo-Mamdani findings, with Adams securing 56% in the 2021 poll compared to Garcia's 44% after 12 rounds.
Adams went on to narrowly win the Democratic nomination by less than a percentage point over Garcia— representing just over 7,000 votes.
'Ranked choice voting adds an element of uncertainty to the race,' Miringoff said.
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