The Reds are better with Ke'Bryan Hayes, but how much better?

New York Times

5 days ago

CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Reds are a better team following the trade for third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes than they were before acquiring the Gold Glover from the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday — at least defensively.
The questions now are just how much the team is better and what else can be done in the 24 hours and 40 minutes between when Nick Krall, the team's president of baseball operations, sat down in the club's interview room to discuss the Hayes acquisition and Thursday's trade deadline?
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This much is sure, once Hayes takes the field for the Reds, their defense is much improved. According to Major League Baseball's Statcast, Hayes is in the 97th percentile in fielding run value. But he's also in the first percentile in batting run value. Therein lies the rub.
'We're trying to find ways to get better,' Reds manager Terry Francona said before Wednesday's series finale against the Los Angeles Dodgers. 'It may not be the sexiest move, but we care so much about trying to play clean baseball and this will be a huge step in that direction.'
If the Reds could find a perfect match, it'd have been a slugging right-handed outfielder that could be placed behind Elly De La Cruz in the order and mash. That is not Hayes, who has just 39 home runs in his career and two this season.
But the trade market, compressed by the advent of the third wild card, had more buyers than sellers, meaning prices were sky high. Former Red third baseman Eugenio Suárez would be an ideal bat to place behind Elly De La Cruz in the team's lineup, but like an apartment that checks all the boxes, the cost was just out of the budget provided to Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall and general manager Brad Meador. That meant getting creative, sacrificing square footage for location, or offense for defense.
'Everyone loves the idea of getting a bat,' Krall said. 'But if you can prevent the runs, you're going to win games too.'
Pitching and defense has hardly been a popular strategy for the Reds since moving into the offensive playground that is Great American Ball Park, but the former was the team's strength through the first four months and the latter is unquestionably improved by Hayes' presence.
The 28-year-old Hayes, son of former big-leaguer Charlie Hayes, won a Gold Glove in 2023. According to Baseball Info Solutions, the younger Hayes' 16 Defensive Runs Saved are twice as many as any other third baseman in the game and more than all but three players in the big leagues entering Wednesday.
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The same rankings have the Reds at negative-3 runs saved at third base on the season, Noelvi Marte at negative-2, and Santiago Espinal at 2.
The Reds' defensive shortcomings — they're ranked No. 20 overall by Sports Info Solutions — are less short with Hayes on the right side. Hayes will allow De La Cruz to play more up the middle, where he rates less effective. If De La Cruz is better to his left because Hayes is on his right, the infield should be relatively airtight with second baseman Matt McLain and Spencer Steer, who has quickly become an exceptional defensive first baseman.
That infield defense, coupled with a starting pitching staff that includes lefties Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott and should once again include Hunter Greene, gives the Reds a pitching staff few teams would want to face in the postseason.
On the other side, Hayes has been abysmal at the plate this season, hitting .236/.279/.290 in 392 plate appearances. That's after hitting .233/.283/.290 in 396 plate appearances last season. He missed much of the 2024 season with back issues, but Krall said the team was satisfied with the medical reports they got on Hayes.
In 2023, Hayes hit .271/.309/.453 with 15 home runs. He finished sixth in National League Rookie of the Year voting in the abbreviated 2020 season. Before the 2022 season, the Pirates signed him to what was then the biggest contract in franchise history, eight years for $70 million with a team option for 2030. The Reds now own that contract, which has $36 million remaining on it after this season. The Reds sent cash considerations to Pittsburgh, evening out the salary left for the rest of this season between Hayes and left-handed reliever Taylor Rogers, who went to the Pirates along with minor-league shortstop Sammy Stafura. That, Krall said, leaves 'a little bit' of financial flexibility in the team's budget for another addition before the trade deadline.
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Krall said the team saw some promising numbers in Hayes' offensive metrics that they think indicate that Hayes can improve offensively, including his hard hit rate (61st percentile), whiff rate (71st percentile), and his overall swing decisions. Hayes' strikeout rate of 20.7 percent is above average, while his walk rate of 4.6 percent is in just the sixth percentile.
Although he's a right-handed hitter, Hayes has struggled more against left-handed pitching this season. Over his career, Hayes has hit lefties better than righties, with a .475 OPS against southpaws and a .597 OPS against right-handers. This year is an outlier, as he has a .772 career OPS against left-handed pitching and .639 against right-handed pitching.
A pair of Reds lefties said they've never liked facing him. Lodolo said Hayes is a much more difficult at-bat than his numbers suggest. Hayes is 3 for 12 in his career against Lodolo, with a double, homer and five strikeouts. Hayes is 2 for 7 against Abbott, but both hits have been homers.
Hayes is just 1 for 6 against Reds lefty reliever Brent Suter, but Suter said he hates facing him.
'It feels like you're playing poker against a guy and holding not-so-good cards,' Suter said.
The addition moves Noelvi Marte, the prize of the Reds' 2022 trade deadline sell-off, from third base to right field.
Marte, 23, was a shortstop when the Reds acquired him and two others for Luis Castillo, but moved to third with the emergence of De La Cruz in the big leagues.
Athletic and with good speed, the Reds started getting Marte work in the outfield earlier this season, and he made his first start there earlier this month against the Mets. He made his second start in right Wednesday against the Dodgers.
Marte had his struggles at third base, including the last two games against the Dodgers. While he wasn't charged with an error in either game, he did have plays that Hayes would likely make and was replaced in the field by utility man Santiago Espinal in the fifth inning. Espinal went into the game at third for defense in the sixth, and instead of moving Marte to right, Francona put in Connor Joe, which had Joe at the plate instead of Marte in the eighth inning of the 5-4 Reds loss.
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Marte entered Wednesday's game hitting .276/.329/.500 with seven homers and singled and scored against Dodgers starter Shohei Ohtani in the fourth inning. He was also put in the fifth spot in the team's batting order, the highest he's hit since coming off the IL on July 4.
'We have a lot of infielders and not as many outfielders, but for a guy that wants to go out there, he has a chance to have an above-average arm, above-average speed and instincts to play,' Krall said. 'It takes some time, but we're excited to get him out there.'
Hayes' presence also likely changes the outlook on one of the team's top prospects, third baseman Sal Stewart. Stewart, who was promoted to Triple-A Louisville following his appearance in the Futures Game, has made 73 starts at third base in the minors this season and eight at second base. Stewart could also potentially move to first base or to a corner outfield spot. If Stewart hits in the big leagues like he has so far in his minor-league career, there will be a place for him in the lineup.
While some have speculated the team could use Stewart to land a big name before the deadline, that seems unlikely. The Hayes move was as much about the future as it is the present. While Stefura is a good prospect, the Reds have several similar players, including this year's first-round pick Steele Hall, who are similar types of players in the lower levels of their organization.
'No matter what, we're going to have to be a team that continues to develop through our own player pipeline,' Krall said, citing Stewart and outfielder Hectór Rodríguez, who, like Stewart, was promoted to Triple A earlier this month. 'It's really hard to give guys like that up, because that is your future, that is your long-term future and it's not too far away. So it's really important that for us in this market to be able to develop from within in everything we do.'
(Top photo by Michael Reaves / Getty Images)