Can IonQ Maintain Its Quantum Edge With China Advancing Fast?

Globe and Mail

01-07-2025

As China accelerates its progress in quantum communications—mainly with space-based quantum key distribution (QKD)— IonQ, Inc. IONQ is racing to fortify its global leadership. The first-quarter 2025 earnings call showed that IonQ is not just keeping pace but expanding aggressively across compute, networking, and space applications, making bold moves that could entrench its competitive edge for years.
IonQ's strategy hinges on its ability to scale quantum computing through a networked, multicore architecture, enabled by photonic interconnects and powered by key acquisitions. The recent buyouts of Lightsynq and Capella are pivotal. Lightsynq brings quantum memory and repeater technology that can stretch quantum networks hundreds of miles, while Capella adds satellite-based QKD capabilities and classified project access, directly addressing the frontier where China is surging ahead.
Meanwhile, IonQ's expansion isn't just technical, it's commercial. The company sold a $22 million Forte Enterprise system to EPB, marking the first U.S. deployment combining a quantum computer and network. It also closed the ID Quantique deal, adding four commercial quantum networks in the telecom and defense sectors.
Despite reporting a net loss of $32.3 million in the first quarter, IonQ remains well-capitalized with nearly $700 million in cash. With DARPA partnerships, cloud access via AWS, and breakthroughs in quantum machine learning, IonQ is staking its claim as the full-stack quantum leader.
While China looms as a formidable rival, IonQ's integrated approach across ground, cloud, and space gives it a real shot at long-term supremacy in the quantum race.
Rivals in the Race: IBM and Alphabet Deepen Quantum Push
Two of IonQ's most relevant competitors in the global quantum race are International Business Machines Corporation IBM and Alphabet Inc. GOOGL, both of which are heavily investing in quantum computing and encryption technologies. IBM, a long-standing player, has built one of the most mature quantum platforms with its IBM Quantum program. It recently announced plans for a 100,000-qubit machine within a decade, emphasizing error correction and scalable architectures. While IBM leads in industrial partnerships and open-access quantum development, it lags IonQ in photonic interconnect innovation and commercial quantum networking.
Alphabet, via its Google Quantum AI division, also poses a major challenge. Known for achieving "quantum supremacy" in 2019, Google is pursuing superconducting qubit systems and has laid out a roadmap toward fault-tolerant quantum computing. However, it remains focused on in-house research rather than commercializing quantum networking, where IonQ currently holds a distinctive first-mover advantage.
IONQ's Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
IonQ shares have gained 71.6% in the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Computer - Integrated Systems industry.
IonQ's forward 12-month price/sales ratio of 102.99 is far above the industry average of 3.89.
For IONQ, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 loss per share has narrowed over the past 60 days, as you can see below, depicting analysts' optimism. The estimated figure indicates a much narrower loss than the year-ago reported loss of $1.56 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 revenues implies year-over-year growth of 97.3%.
IONQ stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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