As recession fears rise and risk-free rates drop, S-REITs could benefit, JP Morgan says
As recession risks rise to 40%, Fed could have at least 2 rate cuts, benefitting S-REITs borrowing costs while widening yield spreads could trigger a REIT rally.
Although S-REITs are an unlikely place to "hide" during a recession, JP Morgan reckons that a faster than expected 31% drop in 6-month Singapore benchmark rates and lower 1-month Sora down 100 basis points (bps) to 2.4% may see investors rotating to defensive yield plays.
Against this background, JP Morgan is expecting a 15% upside to the S-REITs' September 2024 highs.
"There is further potential for lower rates, as JPM and the Street are expecting two/three Fed rate cuts by end-2025, with our economists highlighting a 40% risk of a US recession this year. We estimate a 4% upside to S-REITs' DPU for every 100 bps fall in floating rates, and anticipate that S-REITs will revise down borrowing cost guidance. Yield spreads of 340 bps, the highest level since March 2022 which triggered a rally then, is also supportive," JP Morgan says.
Its top picks are Singapore-focused names including CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust C38u, CapitaLand Ascendas REIT A17u, Keppel DC REIT, Frasers Centrepoint Trust J69u and laggards such as Mapletree Logistics Trust M44u.
S-REIT borrowing costs should trend down with two-thirds of S-REITs at or above stabilised borrowing costs, JP Morgan reckons.
In particular, lower floating rates should benefit S-REITs with a high proportion of floating rate debt, such CDL Hospitality Trusts J85, and those with a larger share of SGD-denominated debt, such as Frasers Centrepoint Trust where borrowing costs could trend lower than the manager's guidance.
Additionally, coupons for S-REIT bonds have fallen to a three-year low of 3.2% from reduced spreads and a drop in 3-year swap rates.
S-REITs are relatively more attractive with yields at 6.3% compared to bank yields at 6.2%, according to JP Morgan.
To this, the caveat has to be added that banks pay out 50% to 60% of their earnings compared to S-REITs minimum payout of 90% of distributable income.
But, alternatives, including Singapore's 6-month T-bill rates have fallen to 2.75%, and the 10-year bond yield is at 2.7% as of March 10. A widening yield spread could also trigger an S-REIT temporary, no matter how temporary.
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Business Upturn
5 hours ago
- Business Upturn
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To offer a deep understanding of the three global initiatives, and elaborate on their significance on a global scale, the Global Times is launching a series of articles. China and Colombia signed a cooperation plan on jointly building the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road on May 14. The year 2025 marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Colombia. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations 45 years ago, the two countries have witnessed the steady growth of economic and trade ties with tangible results. China is now Colombia's second-largest trading partner, while Colombia ranks as China's fifth-largest trading partner in Latin America. Colombia's agricultural products, ranging from coffee to cut flowers, are becoming increasingly popular in the Chinese market. In this issue, Global Times reporters Xu Liuliu and Liu Yang (GT) spoke with Colombian Ambassador to China, Sergio Cabrera Cardenas (Cabrera), about bilateral cooperation and exchanges, as well as his insights on the GDI, the GCI, and the GSI. GT: Colombian President Gustavo Petro was in Beijing for the fourth ministerial meeting of the China-CELAC (the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) Forum in May. On May 14, Colombia officially joined the building of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, a milestone decision in Colombia's diplomatic history. Why did Colombia make such a decision? How will the two sides expand trade through mechanisms such as cross-border e-commerce and free trade agreements? Cabrera: Colombia's accession to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been a long process that began around six years ago during the previous government. Although the previous government initiated some studies, it decided not to join. When President Gustavo Francisco Petro took office, he quickly sent copies of the memorandum to the different ministries and institutions that were somehow related to the commitments that were going to be made. It has been a two-year study process, as it is natural, in any case, that there were many people interested in strengthening the bilateral relationship with China through the BRI decision. Colombia is a country strongly influenced by the US, a country that has been its natural ally, as the US is the country with which Colombia has the most trade, so both the influence of the North and that of the business sector was a brake on the possibility of signing this agreement, but fortunately, thanks to the relationship between the Colombian Foreign Ministry and the Chinese Foreign Ministry, all the adjustments were made and the agreement was signed, and we are very satisfied to say that we were able to sign this agreement. [Signing the agreement] was a challenge for me. That is, since I arrived at the embassy, I was resolved that, whatever it took, we had to find the way to sign it, and at this moment I believe that the people who are better versed with what has been signed, are very satisfied, as this cooperation is crystallizing in projects, with the plan to start studying different initiatives and projects to move forward little by little. We are acting on taking the first step of a great march, and I think that it will strengthen e-commerce, physical commerce, education, culture, industry, and agriculture. Everything will benefit greatly from the signing of this memorandum. GT: Since being proposed in 2021, the GDI has been continuously substantialized, its implementation mechanisms increasingly refined, and practical cooperation under its framework has gradually taken shape, thereby offering China's solution to bridging the development gap in Global South countries as well as building a better world together. May I ask, what is your view on the content of the GDI? Cabrera: As for the GDI, I think this is a very important step that China has taken through President Xi Jinping, as it is an important initiative that considers the future in many aspects. China has a lot to teach the world. China is a country that has managed to strengthen, enrich, and build itself in the last 50 years. It has taken many people out of poverty, while developing industry and its technology. It is a great example for the rest of the world and especially for us Latin Americans and Colombians. The GDI , as I understand, it is the opportunity to exchange experiences and seek to walk toward the same objective, a global objective through which we can live together in peace and help each other to develop. GT: How do you view the role of the GCI in promoting cultural and people-to-people exchanges, cultural integration, and mutual understanding between China and Colombia? Cabrera: I have always thought that art, literature, and culture are not only tools but vehicles for development to get to know each other. In recent years, the cultural exchanges between Colombia and China have grown and in the future, we hope there will be many more exchanges because we have many things in common. Although we are two very different countries, we have the same love for the same literature, music, dance, and art. We like the same things and each one civilization approaches each passion uniquely. I believe that the arrival of cultural samples from another country enriches the country that receives it. Culture is important, but art is more important, as art generates emotions and feelings in any of its manifestations, such as in painting, in poetry, and in music. It makes people want to look for goodness and peace, so I think it is very important to strengthen the mechanisms of cultural and artistic cooperation between Colombia and China. GT: Security is a prerequisite for development, and humanity is an indivisible security community. The GSI aims to eradicate the root causes of international conflicts, improve global security governance, and urge the international community to join hands in injecting more stability and certainty into an unstable and changing era, so as to achieve lasting world peace and development. Under the current challenges and issues faced by the international community, how do you view the important significance of the GSI for today's world? Cabrera: I have grew up in a bipolar world in my youth, and not so long ago, we lived through the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the US. Today the world is more open, and there are many more possibilities. China, as such an important power, has entered the scene. It seems very important to me that in the search for world security, the US is not the world's policeman; the one who is going to fix the world's problems. The world is full of US military bases, which I don't think are of much use, because the world is still very imbalanced, so I think that the entry of China as a factor that contributes to reach a consensus on the interests of the peoples of the world in the search for world peace will be very important. I think it [GSI] is one of the most important initiatives that China has at this moment and toward the future. GT: How would you evaluate the China-CELAC Forum as an important platform for equal dialogue and mutually beneficial cooperation between China and Latin America? In an external environment where unilateralism is on the rise, how can China and Latin America strengthen multilateral cooperation to uphold free trade? Cabrera: The forum is an important organization for our Latin American and Caribbean region, and the union of these countries in CELAC has led to important advances and developments, and of course, the relationship between CELAC and China is very important because China is the country that is currently most interested in developing our region. It is the country that is most willing to invest in our region and that is why this forum, which just concluded, was so important, and that is why the conclusions of the forum are aligned with seeking to implement projects to help the development of the region and of each one of our countries. GT: As you say, this year marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Colombia. Ambassador, how do you evaluate the achievements of both countries in the last 45 years and the current development of bilateral relations? Cabrera: Cooperation between Colombia and China has been, and continues to be very important, and will be very important in the future. China has participated in the construction of many large Colombian projects, perhaps even the largest, such as the construction of the subway, the regional trans, and some highways. China is also somehow involved in the construction of the largest hydroelectric dam in Colombia. There are many Chinese projects related to the fight against global warming. It also provides technology transfer, with projects of communications, such as Chinese tech company Huawei. There are around 120 Chinese companies that are working in Colombia and they are helping greatly in the construction of infrastructure communications, health, and education. Aside from the signing of the adhesion to the BRI opens new possibilities, because China is generously offering opportunities for infrastructure construction and this is a moment in which our country needs to develop, needs to make big investments. There are not many interested in helping us, but China is interested in helping us. The BRI is helping countries develop big form of infrastructure with projects that benefit the people. GT: How do you see the prospects for cooperation between the two countries in cultural fields such as literature and tourism? How do you plan to promote cultural exchanges between the two countries in these sectors? Cabrera: We have talked about the importance of strengthening cultural exchanges, and we have immediate and long-term plans. This year is the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Colombia and China, so we have already carried out some activities. Books by Colombian authors have been published and translated into Chinese, as we have great writers like García Márquez and Álvaro Mutis. In addition, we also have many singers such as Shakira, which was known among the Chinese youth. I know that Shakira is interested in coming to China, and the embassy has a plan to take advantage of this year. We are also going to bring poets for meetings in China. Other projects include the film festival and every time the directors will come. We are also in talks to make a large sample of our art photography, contemporary, art and also ancient heritage. We are planning for the symphony orchestra of Colombia to return again at the end of the year, in order to celebrate the 45th years of the establishment of diplomatic relations with a great concert by the symphony orchestra of Colombia. This story first appeared in Global Times: Company: Global TimesContact Person: Anna Li Email: [email protected] Website: City: Beijing Disclaimer: This press release may contain forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements describe future expectations, plans, results, or strategies (including product offerings, regulatory plans and business plans) and may change without notice. You are cautioned that such statements are subject to a multitude of risks and uncertainties that could cause future circumstances, events, or results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements, including the risks that actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Disclaimer: The above press release comes to you under an arrangement with GlobeNewswire. Business Upturn takes no editorial responsibility for the same. Ahmedabad Plane Crash
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Miami Herald
7 hours ago
- Miami Herald
Veteran fund manager issues dire stock market warning
The stock market loves climbing a wall of worry. We've certainly seen that over the past two months. Despite worry over mounting US debt and tariff impacts on inflation and the economy, the S&P 500 has rallied 20%. Technology stocks have done even better. The Nasdaq Composite, home to most tech leaders, is up 27%. The rally since President Trump paused most reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2, so-called "Liberation Day," for 90 days has been impressive. However, there's good reason for concern, especially since the S&P 500 is challenging all-time highs and its valuation is arguably becoming frothy again. Related: Bank of America unveils surprising Fed interest rate forecast for 2026 The risk that stocks could lose some of their luster after their rally has caught the attention of many Wall Street veterans, including long-time hedge fund manager Doug Kass. 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Related: Legendary fund manager sends blunt 3-word message on economy The sell-off through early April erased much of that frothiness, driving the S&P 500's P/E ratio to 19 and below five-year averages of 19.9-not bargain-basement priced, but low enough to help catapult stocks from severely oversold readings. As a reminder, CNN's Fear & Greed indicator was at "Extreme Fear," and bearishness by most measures was sky high in the days after the April 2 tariff announcement. Now that the stock market is back near its highs, sentiment has turned optimistic again, with CNN's measure flashing "Greed." Because earnings forecasts haven't materially increased, the S&P 500's P/E ratio is north of 21-hardly cheap. "Valuation multiples expanded in a relief rally from mid-April to now and the S&P 500 now trades at 21x forward earnings, 35% above average," wrote Bank of America analysts to clients on June 14. "The index looks statistically expensive relative to its own history on all 20 of the valuation metrics we track." Doug Kass has tracked the market successfully through 1970s skyrocketing inflation, 1980s double-digit interest rates, the Savings & Loan crisis, the Internet boom and bust, the Great Recession, a pandemic, and the bear market of 2022. He's seen a lot over his nearly 50-year career, making his stock market warning now worth paying attention to. "Equities haven't been this unattractive since late 2021," wrote Kass on TheStreet Pro. "There is little room for disappointment. More Economic Analysis: Hedge-fund manager sees U.S. becoming GreeceA critical industry is slamming the economyReports may show whether the economy is toughing out the tariffs The concern that stocks have priced in much of the good news likely to come from ongoing trade negotiations may have merit, given this week's China trade deal news left tariffs at current levels near 55%. As the impact of tariffs flows through supply chains, inflation may start rising within months, crimping household and business spending. Unfortunately, that's not the only risk on Kass's mind. The money manager provided a long list of threats that could derail stocks' rally. It's a long list, so you may want to refill your beverage. He writes: Political and geopolitical polarization and competition will probably translate into less political centrism and a reduced concern for deficits, creating structural uncertainties, limited fiscal discipline, and imprudence around the globe ... and for the possibility of bond markets to "disanchor."The cracks in the foundation of the bull market are multiple and are deepening, but they are being ignored (as market structure changes have led to price momentum (fear of missing out) being favored over value and common sense).With the S&P 500 Index at around 6000, the downside risk dwarfs the upside reward for equities - in a ratio of about 5-1 (negative).Valuations (a 22-times forward Price Earnings Ratio) and (consensus) expectations for economic and corporate profit growth are all dismissed are JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's and others' dour comments on complacency and a view that the corporate credit market is "ridiculously over-stretched."Look for the soft data (see last week's weak ISM and climb in jobless claims) to move into (and weaken) the hard data led by a slowing housing market likely to provide ample near-term evidence of the exposure and vulnerability of the middle trend-line economic growth (housing will lead us lower) coupled with sticky inflation lie ahead ("slugflation") - uncomfortable for a Federal Reserve which has to make increasingly more difficult profit growth (rising +13% in 1Q2025) will markedly decelerate in this year's second equity risk premium is at a two-decade low - typically consistent with a slide in S&P Dividend Yield is at a near record low of 1.27% - and the spread between the dividend yield and the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield has rarely been as wide. With so many possible adverse outcomes, my baseline expectation is for seven lean months ahead over the balance of 2025. Kass' is clearly nervous that any single or combination of these headwinds could cause stocks to give back some gains. What should investors do? Over time, the stock market goes up and to the right, so those with long-term horizons are often best off sticking to their plan, recognizing that there will be bumps and bruises along the way. However, investors with a shorter-term horizon may want to rein in some risk, pocket some profit, and increase 'dry powder' to take advantage of any weakness if Kass's warning proves prescient. Related: Veteran fund manager revamps stock market forecast The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
