Is this the end of Japan's 'big tent' parties?

Japan Times

2 days ago

In Japan's recent Upper House election, four traditional parties — the Liberal Democratic Party, Komeito, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and the Japanese Communist Party — suffered the most significant losses.
The LDP and Komeito together lost 24 seats, saw a sharp drop in the national vote and lost their Upper House majority. The CDP lost one seat but, as the largest opposition party, still placed a surprising fourth with just 12.5% of the national vote. The JCP lost four seats. The LDP and the CDP are considered the "big tent" parties because both have clear conservative and liberal wings.
The big winners of the day were newer conservative parties — the Democratic Party for the People, Sanseito and the Conservative Party of Japan — along with the far-left Reiwa Shinsengumi. Sanseito picked up 14 seats and finished third with 12.55% of the national vote. The DPP gained 12 seats and placed second with 12.88%. The CPJ, contesting its first election, won two seats, and Reiwa added one.
If you add the national vote totals by conservative leaning and liberal leaning, you find something quite interesting. Conservative parties gathered over over 35 million votes, while liberal parties only gathered around 17 million.
Most commentary in Japan speaks in terms of the ruling parties versus the opposition. But there is an argument that the current turmoil in Japanese politics comes from the fact that the LDP and CDP lack clear policies because they constantly try to balance the conflicting views of their conservative and liberal wings.
Today's Japanese voters are seeking clarity on issues vital to them, not an outdated homogenized message. The LDP and CDP are losing to newer parties that have clear policies and sharper messaging.
Some advocates of political reform in Japan lament the fact that the country's opposition parties are unable to coordinate their activities effectively to defeat the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition. A coalition of the opposition, comprising strongly conservative parties alongside extreme liberal parties, has always been more challenging to manage than even the traditional big tent parties.
It is no wonder that they cannot coordinate an election strategy after the most recent Upper House election or agree whether to file a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, which they are struggling with today. Of course, there is no credibility that they could run a government.
Other reformers have complained that Japan lacks a system of rotating ruling parties between the conservative and liberal camps. Perhaps that is what comes next if the big tent parties break up.
Is that conceivable? After losing three primary elections in the past 10 months under the leadership of Ishiba, there is now a war under way within the LDP to force him to resign. With the full support of the liberal wing, Ishiba won the LDP leadership role in 2024, which handed him the prime ministerial chair, an inconceivable event had conservative wing leader Shinzo Abe not been murdered in 2022.
Ishiba's election came on the heels of what should have been a minor political funds reporting scandal that involved members of the conservative wing. However, even former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's group had reporting issues. Since then, the liberal wing, first under Kishida and then Ishiba, has used the scandal at every opportunity to sideline conservative members. The conservative wing is ready to revolt if Ishiba refuses to resign and accept accountability. So, while not certain, the LDP is as close as it has been since 1955 to a split.
CDP members have never really gotten along, given all the splits and mergers since the party emerged from the remnants of the Democratic Party of Japan. Before the recent election, public accusations and demands from former party leaders that others should leave the party surfaced. The CDP now seems ripe for more change.
A recent poll by the Yomiuri of all the opposition parties' preferences for the next prime minister, assuming they came from the LDP, might provide some insight. Sanae Takaichi of the LDP's conservative wing was the favorite among members of the more conservative parties such as the DPP, Sanseito and the CDP. Ishiba seemed more popular among the members of the liberal parties. Birds of a feather?
The Yomiuri poll is interesting on two fronts: It may signal how feasible it will be for Ishiba, assuming he remains, to create a new ruling coalition with the addition of one of the conservative parties, an absolute necessity now that he has lost the majority in both houses of the parliament. Would Takaichi not find it easier?
Secondly, it also signals how feasible it would be for a Takaichi-led conservative wing of the LDP, not only to split off from the LDP, but also to assemble a new majority under a new conservative party banner made up of the four conservative parties and perhaps a conservative group that splits off from the CDP.
After the election results, Sanseito leader Sohei Kamiya suggested that the LDP is losing power because no one can understand what the LDP stands for anymore, given the differing views of the conservative and liberal wings. The same thing could be said for the CDP. Perhaps the era of big tent parties has come to an end and a realignment along ideological lines is where Japanese politics is headed.
Edo Naito is a commentator on Japanese politics, law and history. He is a retired international business attorney and has held board of director and executive positions at several U.S. and Japanese multinational companies.