More investors flocking to 'stable' Europe

New Straits Times

01-07-2025

PETER Roessner is feeling both sides of United States President Donald Trump's trade war.
While tariff risks mean the chief executive officer of Luxembourg-based hydrogen firm H2Apex can no longer rely on US suppliers for its more than €200 million project in Lubmin, Germany, investor interest in European projects is rising.
"Investors in the hydrogen sector are now focusing more on the European market due to the absolute uncertainty and planning insecurity in the US," he said, adding that this included both local and US players.
"The framework conditions in Europe are not ideal, but they are stable."
Roessner's comments are indicative of a trend that has taken hold in recent months: Investors and companies are increasingly turning to Europe, drawn by an infrastructure- and defence-led spending push that offers stability at a time when Trump's erratic tariff policies have made the US market a less safe bet, according to more than a dozen interviews with executives and fund managers.
The shift has also been fuelled by Trump's tendency to make sweeping tariff threats and announcements that are then often delayed or changed, and to draw up executive orders that have tested the limits of his presidential power.
"The US is coming from a very capital market-friendly and stable environment. Now, there is political intervention and also an attempt to expand power," said Christoph Witzke, who heads the CIO office at Deka, one of Germany's largest investment funds.
"This creates uncertainty that some kind of intervention ... could come at any time," he said, adding that Europe had become the centre of attention in the most recent investor conferences as a result.
With a July 9 deadline for a trade deal less than two weeks away — and Trump saying he will impose 50 per cent tariffs on all European Union goods without a deal — investors have started shifting their money.
Data from LSEG's Lipper Funds show that more than US$100 billion has flowed into European equity funds so far this year — up threefold from the same period last year — while outflows from the US more than doubled to nearly US$87 billion.
"All that is an indication that at least market forces, investors, those who move real money around, actually see value and have confidence in Europe," said European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde earlier this month.
This shift in focus was also illustrated by the weak market debut of Holcim's North American spin-off Amrize late last month, which was announced to much fanfare in early 2024 at a time when the lure of US valuations also got some of its rivals excited.
In contrast, the share price of Holcim itself, now squarely focused on Europe, Latin America and North Africa, soared 15 per cent.
Siemens Energy, which makes more than a fifth of its sales in the US, has noted a shift in sentiment, said finance chief Maria Ferraro, on the back of a recent US roadshow and an 84 per cent rise in the group's share price year-to-date.
Apart from the improved market view, more investments are also crucial in efforts to revive the EU's economy and narrow its competitiveness gap compared with other regions, most notably China and the US.
Closely watched foreign direct investment flows into Germany, the bloc's largest economy, more than doubled to €46 billion in the first four months of 2025, according to the most recent data from the Bundesbank, marking the highest level since 2022.
It also shows that German companies even pulled money out of the US in three of the first four months of the year, with their balance of foreign direct investments in April at a negative €2.38 billion.
Negative balances emerge when companies either divest more than they invest in a foreign country or decide against extending credit lines to local counterparts.
But the picture is not all rosy, with several investors pointing out that Europe is now under pressure to act faster, create better regulation and make good on its spending pledges.
"This sentiment can quickly turn again. This should be both a warning and an incentive to use the momentum now and consistently implement the planned agenda," said Stefan Wintels, head of German state-backed lender KfW.