Buresh Blog: Planetary alignment... NHC seasonal accuracy... March averages... NOAA budget cuts

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26-02-2025

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An interesting planetary alignment to round out the month of February a little after sunset. Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Venus & Mercury will all be visible with the naked eye while Uranus & Neptune can be seen with the help of binoculars or a telescope. Saturn will be low on the horizon but visible for a short time just after sunset.
The National Hurricane Center has issued their verification report for the 2024 hurricane season. The forecast track record - see the image below - on record. From the NHC:
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season exhibited above normal levels of activity by nearly every metric (total number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and values of Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a measure of the strength and duration of all tropical cyclones). NHC issued a total of 347 forecasts in the Atlantic basin in 2024, which is a little above the longterm (1990-2023) average of about 325 forecasts.
The report - including intensity errors - can be found * here *.
Averages for March at JIA:
A lot of talk & discussion these days regarding federal funding cuts. The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) may be in the crosshairs.
NOAA's Primary Services:
Weather Forecasting and Warnings
* Operates the National Weather Service (NWS) to provide accurate weather forecasts, severe weather warnings, and emergency alerts, including hurricanes, tornadoes, and flooding.
Climate Monitoring and Research
* Studies climate change and variability, provides long-term climate predictions, and supports global climate initiatives.
Ocean and Coastal Management
* Oversees sustainable use and conservation of marine and coastal ecosystems, including fisheries management protected species, habitat and marine protected areas through the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and National Ocean Service (NOS).
Satellite and Data Services
* Operates a fleet of environmental satellites that monitor weather, climate, and environmental changes globally through the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS).
Marine and Weather Research
* Conducts advanced research into atmospheric and oceanic systems through the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR).
Navigation and Charting
* Provides nautical charts, tide and current predictions, and geospatial data to support safe maritime navigation.
Environmental Monitoring
* Monitors natural hazards like droughts, wildfires, and harmful algal blooms, and works to mitigate their impacts.
Educational Resources
* Offers public outreach, educational materials, and training on weather, climate, and marine science topics.
From the American Meteorological Society Executive Committee & Staff:
Over the past week, we have seen significant changes, including actual and proposed reductions in funding and staff across several federal agencies. These shifts, and associated uncertainty, are prompting concern across the weather and climate enterprise, as public safety, economic stability, and scientific research spanning government, academia, and the private sector may be impacted, directly or indirectly. Any funding cuts or reorganization must ensure that essential functions are not degraded.
It is possible that many dedicated professionals in the weather, water, and climate (WWC) community—whose work has provided immense value to the nation—will feel the effects of potential changes. The American Meteorological Society stands in support of those who may be affected and recognizes their invaluable contributions.