Sensex, Nifty holiday: Are stock markets open for trading today?
advertisement
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Mint
7 minutes ago
- Mint
Vijay L Bhambwani's Ticker: Markets will revert to fundamentals
Dear reader, Last week, I wrote about retail traders latching on to a slender hope and the impending Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska triggering a hope-based rally. The executive order signed by Trump to funnel US retirement savings plan 401(k) into riskier assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies triggered some greed. As I wrote last week, big-ticket retirement savings in stock markets have not done well in the past, and a near-term benefit is all we might get. The Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska turned out to be a damp squib with no resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war. Apart from future meetings to thrash out the thornier issues, there seems to be little hope of concrete gains from this exercise, at least for now. The markets will now revert to the usual triggers like retail buying, corporate earnings, cost of funds and inflation, among others. State Bank of India and Union Bank of India announced a 0.25% hike in home loan rates and validated my hypothesis that the cost of funds was rising in spite of headline coupon rate cuts. I had written that borrowers would be unable to avail of loans at the headline rates. Market players had positioned their trades in anticipation of a favourable outcome of the Trump-Putin meeting, and there is a fair probability of some positions being reversed this week. Traders displayed a higher risk appetite for riskier assets and booked profits in bullion. Safe-haven buying may emerge again in bullion on declines. Oil and gas prices eased on hopes of a US-Russia deal and may stabilise or even rise mildly. I maintain my view that energy markets are well supplied and rallies are temporary and seasonal in nature. Industrial metals are witnessing signs of being top-heavy as higher levels encounter selling pressure. The US automobile and construction industries are lobbying for rationalising tariffs on industrial metals, and commodity markets are reacting accordingly. The same pressure on advances may show up in the stock prices of metal mining companies in India. This week, trader focus may remain polarised around public sector undertakings (PSUs) as the government has announced moves to disinvest its stake in the Life Insurance Corp. of India (LIC) and speed up the National Stock Exchange's initial public offering. Public sector banks will likely remain in the limelight as the build-up of positions has been heavy on these counters in the last few quarters. Markets, being hardwired to seek positive triggers, may seek comfort from the expectation of a lower Goods and Services Tax from October 2025, as announced on Independence Day. There may be a rise in the short run. Oil and gas companies may also witness higher-than-average traded volumes in two-way trade as financial markets react to large price swings in the underlying assets in the global commodity markets. Oil contracts expire this week, and gas contracts expire early next week. There may be usual short covering ahead of expiry and a temporary rally ahead. I suggest that my readers continue to trade light and maintain tail risk (Hacienda) hedges. A tutorial video on tail risk (Hacienda) hedges is here - Rear view mirror Let us assess what happened last week to gauge what to expect in the coming week. The upthrust was led by the broad-based Nifty 50, whereas the Bank Nifty brought up the rear. Commodities witnessed profit taking despite a weaker US dollar index (DXY) due to profit taking and switching to riskier assets. The rupee gained marginally against the weaker dollar. Indian 10-year bond yields were flat, and the NSE gained 0.9% in market capitalisation. That tells us the rally was somewhat broad-based. Market-wide position limits (MWPL) rose routinely. US headline indices gained and provided tailwinds to our markets. Retail Risk Appetite I use a simple yet highly accurate yardstick for measuring the conviction levels of retail traders—where are they deploying money. I measure what percentage of the turnover was contributed by the lower and higher risk instruments. If they trade more futures which require sizable capital, their risk appetite is higher. Within the futures space, index futures are less volatile than stock futures. A higher footprint in stock futures shows higher aggression levels. Ditto for stock and index options. Last week this is what their footprint looked like (the numbers are average of all trading days of the week) – Traded turnover slipped in the capital intensive, high volatility futures segment last week. In the relatively lower risk, lower capital options segment the turnover rose in the safest segment of index options. Turnover fell in the stock options segment. These figures betray nervousness in the undertone of the derivatives segment of the markets. Matryoshka Analysis Let us peel layer after layer of statistical data to arrive at the core message of the markets. The first chart I share is the NSE advance-decline ratio. After the price itself, this indicator is the fastest (leading) indicator of which way the winds are blowing. This simple yet accurate indicator computes the ratio of rising to falling stocks. Bulls are dominant as long as the number of gaining stocks outnumber losers. This metric gauges the risk appetite of one marshmallow trader. These are pure intraday traders. The Nifty logged weekly gains after six consecutive weeks of declines. However, the weekly advance-decline ratio did not keep pace with the optimism. It rose to 0.90 (prior week: 0.75), meaning there were 90 gainers for every 100 losers last week. For a sustainable rally, this figure needs to stay above 1.0 with rising prices. A tutorial video on the Marshmallow theory in trading is here - The second chart I share is the market wide position limits (MWPL). This measures the amount of exposure utilized by traders in the derivatives (f&o) space as a component of the total exposure allowed by the regulator. This metric is a gauge of the risk appetite of two marshmallow traders. These are deep pocketed, high conviction traders who roll over their trades to the next session/s. The MWPL data shows swing traders initiated fresh exposure but the same was the lowest compared to the last two expiry months in the comparable week. That tells us the optimism level seems to have tapered off marginally. A dedicated tutorial video on how to interpret MWPL data in more ways than one is available here - The third chart I share is my in-house indicator, 'impetus.' It measures the force in any price move. Last week, both indices rose, but their impetus readings sharply fell. That shows the rally was powered more by short covering than fresh aggressive buying. While short covering can cushion declines or even trigger a temporary rally, fresh buying powers prices to new highs. The final chart I share is my in-house indicator 'LWTD.' It computes lift, weight, thrust and drag encountered by any security. These are four forces that any powered aircraft faces during flight, so applying them to traded securities helps a trader estimate prevalent sentiments. While the Nifty logged net gains after a six-week losing spree, the LWTD reading fell from -0.10 in the prior week to -0.20 last week. That implies that even the short covering that is likely on declines may be a tad weaker in the week ahead. Should there be any negative news, the markets may decline without a lag. A tutorial video on interpreting the LWTD indicator is here - Nifty's Verdict The weekly chart shows a bullish candle after six consecutive weeks of decline. The 24,200 level I advocated as a support level to watch in last week's column was defended by bulls. This level of 24,200 is now a near-term swing low that must be watched in the near future. Optimism may prevail as long as bulls manage to keep the Nifty trading above it. On the flip side, it will take the Nifty staying above the 24,750 level sustainably before bulls can regain their lost initiative. The price is precariously poised above its 25-week moving average, which is a proxy for the six-month holding cost of an average investor. Coercive selling is unlikely as long as the price stays above this threshold. Your Call to Action Watch the 24,200 level as near-term support. Only a breakout above the 24,750 level raises the possibility of a short-term rally. Last week, I estimated ranges between 56,150 – 53,850 and 24,875 – 23,850 on the Bank Nifty and Nifty, respectively. Both indices traded within their specified levels. I estimate this week's ranges between 56,425 – 54,250 and 25,125 – 24,125 on the Bank Nifty and Nifty, respectively. Trade light with strict stop losses. Avoid trading counters with spreads wider than 8 ticks. Have a profitable week. Vijay L. Bhambwani Vijay is the CEO of a proprietary trading firm. He tweets at @vijaybhambwani
Mint
35 minutes ago
- Mint
GST relief to boost consumer spending, lift FMCG sector's growth
Mumbai: Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Independence Day announcement of long-awaited Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms has raised hopes of consumer goods becoming cheaper, giving relief to households and packaged goods makers. There is a proposal to retain two major GST rates going ahead, eliminating the 12% and 28% slabs. Most of the products and services that currently attract a tax rate of 12% and 28% will be shifted to the 5% and 18% slabs, respectively. A few remaining items in the 28% bracket, currently the highest, will be moved to a new 40% slab, Mint reported earlier. This new slab will cover only a few 'sin goods' such as tobacco products, pan masala, and luxury cars. 'We expect the demand outlook for the FMCG sector to improve, supported by the Central government's focus on accelerating consumption in the economy," analysts at Emkay Securities said in a note dated 17 August. 'The government is now aiming to reduce the indirect tax burden by simplifying the Goods and Services Tax (GST) structure." The move will aid both consumers and producers, said Jayen Mehta, managing director at the Gujarat Co-operative Milk Marketing Federation Ltd, which markets dairy products under the AMul brand. 'This will benefit farmers. While products such as curd are already taxed at 5%, products like ghee, butter, ice cream, and cheese will move down to the 5% slab," he said. Both ghee and butter currently attract a 12% tax. 'Ghee, in particular, is a very important product after milk. However, high tax rates have kept consumption restricted to the unorganized sector. The lower GST will help change that and give consumers access to better quality and branded ghee," he said. Overall, Mehta said the move would boost consumption and benefit local producers. Analysts at Emkay Securities said the move is likely to have limited price benefits for categories such as home and personal care due to their predominant classification under the 5% and 18% slabs. In contrast, food and beverage companies may see direct benefits from a decrease in rates. Food and beverages have varied products across the 5%, 12%, and 18% slabs. Many products currently in the 12% slab—ghee, savouries, bottled water, butter, cheese, paneer, juice, instant noodles, pasta, Chyawanprash, soya chunks, and wafers—are likely to see a reduction to the 5% slab, in our view, analysts said. "If the tax rate reduces to 5%, Bikaji (approx. 80% of revenue) and Gopal Snacks (approx. 85% of revenue) are likely to benefit; Nestlé will see a tax reduction in approximately 30% of its portfolio (instant noodles, pasta, and ketchup)," per the report. 'Further, Dabur will see a partial benefit in beverages and Chyawanprash, which make up approximately 23% of its India revenue. ITC's 11% revenue in the 'other FMCG' segment (noodles, juice, and dairy) may benefit. Britannia's dairy and wafers portfolio would benefit, which is less than 5% of its India revenue. Marico and HUL are likely to benefit, although their share of revenue is limited." Home and personal care In the home and personal care segment, most products are currently taxed at 18% GST. Exceptions include hand wash and toothbrushes (5%, likely to remain), sanitary pads (nil), baby care (12%, potentially moving to 5%), and mouthwash (12%, possibly moving to 18%). As such, direct benefits for for the category are expected to be minimal. Modi, in his speech, said the central government is working with states to reform GST and bring significant relief to people. 'In this Deepavali, you will be getting a double Deepavali," he said. 'Any step towards a more simplified and rational GST structure will provide much-needed relief to the FMCG sector, particularly for companies like ours in the packaged foods and snacks space where margins are under pressure," Manish Aggarwal, Director, Bikano, Bikanervala Foods Pvt Ltd. said. A predictable and streamlined tax regime not only eases compliance but also helps us pass on benefits to consumers, ensuring better affordability and growth of the category, Aggarwal added. However, the industry is awaiting further clarity on the revised rates. India's FMCG sector reported 13.9% growth in the June quarter, up from 3.3% in Q1FY25 driven primarily by price growth in food products. Volume growth remained steady at 6% year-on-year. 'The rationalization of GST rates could provide a strong tailwind to the FMCG sector. A large share of items currently in the 12% slab—milk-based products, dry fruits, processed and frozen foods, and daily-use essentials—are expected to shift into the 5% bracket. This reduction will improve affordability, lift consumption, and help an industry that has been struggling with a prolonged demand slowdown," said said Manoj Mishra, partner and tax controversy management leader, Grant Thornton Bharat. Mishra said the move, coming ahead of the festive season, is crucial and may translate into stronger volumes, better consumer sentiment, and a measurable push to overall economic growth.
Time of India
an hour ago
- Time of India
Commerce ministry recommends safeguard duty on imports of certain steel items for 3 years
The commerce ministry's arm, DGTR, has recommended final imposition of a safeguard duty on imports of certain flat steel products for three years to protect domestic manufacturers from sudden jump in the inbound shipments. Independence Day 2025 Modi signals new push for tech independence with local chips Before Trump, British used tariffs to kill Indian textile Bank of Azad Hind: When Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose gave India its own currency The duty was recommended by the directorate general of trade remedies (DGTR) in its final findings of a probe initiated on a complaint by the Indian Steel Association . Based on the preliminary findings, the government in April has already imposed a provisional 12 per cent safeguard duty for 200 days. Now in its final findings, the DGTR has concluded "that there is a recent, sudden, sharp and significant increase in imports of PUC (product under consideration) into India at the cumulative level as a result of unforeseen threaten to cause serious injury to the domestic industry/producers," the DGTR has said in a notification. It has recommended a 12 per cent duty in the first year, 11.5 per cent in the second, and 11 per cent in the third year. Live Events The Indian Steel Association on behalf of its members including ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India, JSW Steel , Jindal Steel and Power and Steel Authority of India filed an application seeking imposition of safeguard duty on imports of non-alloy and alloy steel flat products. The applicant alleged that there was a sudden, sharp and significant increase in the volume of imports, which caused serious injury to the domestic industry in India. The applicant also stated that imports took place in such increased quantities and under such circumstances that cause and threaten to cause serious injury to the domestic industry. The DGTR said that taking into account the current serious injury to the domestic industry, and the imminent threat of injury due to the imports of subject goods, the fair selling price and, considering competing interest of all stakeholders, the authority recommends imposition of the duty on certain steel products. Commenting on this, think GTRI said that India's trade watchdog DGTR has confirmed safeguard duties on a wide range of steel imports, rejecting submissions from over 250 stakeholders, including major automakers and electronics firms. It said that the probe, launched in December 2024, covered hot-rolled and cold-rolled products, metallic and colour-coated steel. Chinese exports of these items rose to 110.7 million tonnes in 2024, up 25 per cent over 2023, much of it redirected to India, GTRI said. "GTRI opposed the move, warning it (imposition of final safeguard duty) would raise input costs, hurt export competitiveness, and squeeze downstream users," the think tank's founder Ajay Srivastava said. GTRI argued imports were predictable, not "sudden"; that domestic injury was overstated; and that duties would cripple auto, engineering, and construction sectors, he said.
