BRICS+ Series: What the US-Russia Trade Resurgence Means for Global Geopolitics
Despite the widely publicised rupture in diplomatic relations between Russia and the United States, since the onset of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, recent trade data reveals a counterintuitive development: economic ties between the two powers are quietly resurging. In March 2025, US-Russia trade reached a two-year high of $573.4 million, a striking 50% increase from February's $389.4 million, based on official US statistics. This surge, driven primarily by Russia's exports, raises profound questions about the durability of Western sanctions, the fluidity of geopolitical alliances, and the direction of global multilateralism in an increasingly multipolar world.
The Trade Reality Beneath the Political Theatre
At the core of this trade revival is the United States' increased importation of critical raw materials from Russia. In March alone, the US imported $219 million worth of Russian fertilizers, $87.5 million in platinum, and additional shipments of phosphates, plywood, and other industrial goods. These are not luxuries—they are strategic commodities essential for American agriculture, industry, and technology sectors.
Meanwhile, US exports to Russia remained steady at $50 million, with vaccines, medical instruments, food products, and lab testing equipment dominating the list. This points to a quiet acknowledgment of mutual dependency in key sectors.
Are sanctions losing their effectiveness?
This rebound in trade comes at a time when sanctions fatigue appears to be setting in across much of the West. While the European Union continues to pursue restrictions on Russian energy and technology, US businesses, especially in sectors not directly covered by sanctions are finding legal avenues to re-engage. The fact that over 150 American companies have remained operational in Russia, as stated by Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) head Kirill Dmitriev, is telling.
Dmitriev's remarks about foreign investors returning to the Russian market highlight a critical contradiction in Western policy: sanctions have limited long-term effectiveness when they clash with national economic interests. The demand for raw materials, metals, and agricultural inputs often overrides ideological posturing, particularly when inflation and supply chain volatility strain domestic economies.
St. Petersburg Economic Forum and the Return of the Quiet Multinational
The upcoming St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) to be held from 18–21 June 2025 under the theme Shared Values: The Foundation of Growth in a Multipolar World, is expected to further signal Russia's pivot from isolation toward reintegration. According to Dmitriev, the SPIEF will host high-level engagements with international investors, including Americans, many of whom never formally exited the Russian market.
The emphasis on shared values within a multipolar framework underscores Russia's strategic narrative: that global commerce can and should transcend Western hegemony. This is not merely rhetorical, it is supported by ongoing Russian-Chinese diplomatic engagement and parallel trade surges with Global South economies.
What This Means for Geopolitics and Multilateralism
This quiet but steady re-engagement between the US and Russia on trade suggests that realpolitik is alive and well. Behind the scenes, national interest continues to drive policy. While Washington publicly champions Ukrainian sovereignty and denounces Russian aggression, it is simultaneously facilitating trade in critical commodities, a paradox that reveals the limits of liberal internationalism when confronted with material realities.
This trend affirms the reemergence of multipolar multilateralism. Countries like Russia are no longer wholly dependent on Western markets, but they are not completely divorced from them either. Instead, a new form of pragmatic multilateralism is taking shape, one that blends ideological divergence with economic interdependence.
This development also pressures institutions like the United Nations and World Trade Organisation to redefine neutrality in an age where East and West are both trading and contesting power simultaneously. In this context, platforms like the SPIEF—and even China's Belt and Road Initiative, are emerging as alternative hubs of economic diplomacy, particularly for middle powers and developing nations seeking to diversify beyond the US-EU axis.
The Road Ahead: Cooperation in a Fractured World
While the resumption of trade does not equate to political reconciliation, it does suggest that isolationist strategies are insufficient. As climate change, supply chain realignments, and regional conflicts continue to destabilise global systems, selective cooperation, even among adversaries, may become not just pragmatic, but necessary.
Whether this trend will catalyse deeper political dialogues or remain compartmentalised within the economic sphere remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: the binary logic of Cold War politics is no longer viable in today's entangled global economy.
As the United States and Russia continue to posture on the world stage, their trade numbers whisper a more complicated truth—that in an era of geopolitical rupture, economic necessity often keeps doors open where diplomacy has slammed them shut.
Written By:
*Dr Iqbal Survé
Past chairman of the BRICS Business Council and co-chairman of the BRICS Media Forum and the BRNN
*Chloe Maluleke
Associate at BRICS+ Consulting Group
Russian & Middle Eastern Specialist
**The Views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of Independent Media or IOL.
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