Russia's Pearl Harbor: Putin Dealt 'Serious Loss' in Stand Off with NATO
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Ukraine's large-scale, coordinated drone strikes on Russia's high-value aircraft on Sunday packed a punch against part of Moscow's military that had been relatively unscathed by the war in Ukraine.
But they have likely also benefited a NATO scrambling to prepare for a possible war with Russia, an adversary with significant airpower at its disposal.
"Russia has suffered a serious loss in striking power, not just vis-à-vis Ukraine, but also towards NATO as a whole," said Frederik Mertens, a strategic analyst at Dutch research organization, TNO.
Ukraine on Sunday launched simultaneous drone strikes on several major Russian airbases, including in Siberia, just shy of 3,000 miles from Ukraine border, in a meticulously-planned attack that left analysts stunned.
Kyiv said it had brought down roughly $7 billion in damage on Moscow's head, taking out more than a third of its strategic cruise missile carriers. The strikes were quickly dubbed Russia's Pearl Harbor, a reference to the (by contrast, unprovoked) Japanese attacks on the U.S. Pacific Fleet at the Hawaii military base in late 1941.
In this handout photo released by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service, a Russian Tu-95 bomber taxies before takeoff at an airbase in Russia, Thursday, July 8, 2021.
In this handout photo released by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service, a Russian Tu-95 bomber taxies before takeoff at an airbase in Russia, Thursday, July 8, 2021.
Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service via AP
The head of Ukraine's SBU security service, Lieutenant General Vasyl Malyuk, said on Monday that Kyiv hit 41 aircraft, including Tu-95 and Tu-22 strategic bombers Russia has used extensively to fire long-range missiles at Ukraine.
Ukraine also struck an A-50 spy plane, Malyuk said. The rare A-50 surveillance aircraft is an expensive and scarce asset for Russia, previously successfully targeted by Ukraine.
Footage widely circulating online appears to show several aircraft in flames or damaged. Andriy Kovalenko, an official with Ukraine's national security and defense council, said on Monday "at least 13 Russian aircraft were destroyed."
Ukrainian officials said Kyiv had targeted four Russian airbases across the vast country, while Russia's Defense Ministry said Ukraine had used first person-view (FPV) drones to target military airfields in five regions — Amur, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Murmansk and Ryazan. Moscow, in a rare admission, acknowledged "several" aircraft had caught fire in the strikes in Murmansk, in northwestern Russia, and Irkutsk, in Siberia.
The SBU did not name the Amur base of Ukrainka, reportedly hit by drones, as a target. Ukrainka is a significant long-range aviation hub.
An SBU spokesperson declined to comment when approached for clarification on Monday.
Moscow cannot replace the Tu-95 and Tu-22 aircraft Ukraine struck, because they are no longer in production, Mertens told Newsweek. Russia's ability to launch long-range, precision strikes "has taken a real blow and this would make both Europe and the USA more secure in case of a war with Russia," Mertens added.
How Many Bombers Does Russia Have Left?
While the war in Ukraine has wreaked havoc on Russia's land forces, much of Moscow's military might, including the vast majority of its air force, has been largely untouched.
General Christopher Cavoli, the top U.S. commander in Europe, said in April last year Russia had lost just 10 percent of its air force since early 2022.
The exact number of bombers remaining is hard to make out, Mertens said, adding if Moscow still has enough in operation, it would be more limited by missile stockpiles than available aircraft.
The Kremlin likely has less than 90 Tu-22, Tu-95 and Tu-160 aircraft in total at its disposal, The Economist reported on Sunday.
Sunday's attacks "may at least temporarily constrain Russia's ability to conduct long-range drone and missile strikes into Ukraine," the U.S.-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) evaluated on Sunday.
NATO officials have increasingly sounded the alarm over the possibility of Russia launching some form of attack on the alliance, often suggesting the likelihood of Moscow mounting an operation increases if a ceasefire is secured in Ukraine.
Ukrainian and Russian officials began a second round of tense talks in Turkey early on Monday, although optimism is low for concrete progress toward a deal.
Russia has in recent weeks hammered Ukraine with massive drone and missile strikes, provoking ire from President Donald Trump, eager to end Europe's largest land conflict since World War II.
Ukraine's drone strikes on Sunday have had a "tremendous impact," likely to make Trump "think seriously" about Kyiv's negotiating position, said Oleksandr Merezhko, the chair of Ukraine's parliamentary foreign affairs committee.
"In one stroke, we managed to do something that was absolutely unbelievable," Merezhko told Newsweek.
The operation was a boon to morale while proving Kyiv is "not a burden for NATO," Merezhko added. Ukraine is a "shield for NATO," he said.
Ukrainian officials have repeatedly said they are fighting not just for Ukraine, but to stop Russia's advance further west into alliance territory.
What Is Operation Spiderweb?
Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, said the "perfectly executed" operation, dubbed Spiderweb, had taken a year and a half to mastermind.
Each of the 117 drones used had its own operator, the president said, and those involved worked across three different time zones.
The SBU smuggled the drones into Russia, the agency said, before smuggling them into wooden containers with removable roofs mounted on trucks.
"At the right moment, the roofs of the houses were remotely opened, and the drones flew to hit the designated targets – Russian bombers," the SBU said.
A second round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia kicked off in Turkey on Monday, although there is little optimism renewed discussions will quickly yield progress on a deal.
Russia has in recent weeks intensified its aerial attacks on Ukraine, launching huge waves of drone and missile strikes across the country that drew sharp criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has typically refrained from overtly condemning Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Ukraine, in the wake of its successful drone attacks, is anticipating a strong Russian response, Ivan Stupak, a former officer with the SBU, told Newsweek.
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