What do we know about the Covid-19 virus five years on?
Although it was initially forecast to become a seasonal illness, the virus is on the rise in the US – making it far from the common-cold-style winter illness that was expected.
Experts told the Guardian a lot of predictions made about how Covid-19 would evolve have turned out to be wrong. Five years on, what do we know about the virus?
Although news of a summer wave in the US has sparked fears it could be replicated in the UK, the latest data from the UK Health Security Agency shows that cases dropped by 28% over the past week to reach 1,046. Since most people don't test any more, this is unlikely to reflect the true prevalence. The data for the past year shows levels have remained consistent, with a large spike last October.
Experts assumed that as Covid became endemic, it would change into a winter bug, like the common cold or flu. UKHSA stats show this is not the case. 'It is absolutely true that you are as likely to get Covid in summer as in winter,' said Danny Altmann, an immunologist at Imperial College London.
He added: 'It's been a shifting discussion – when do we calm down and say it's become an endemic coronavirus like the common cold. I think we're still so far off that place. There's a kind of optimism that it's just a winter sniffle, but it's not a sniffle; it's quite symptomatic, especially in vulnerable people and in the excess death figures, and also it is absolutely not seasonal.'
Altmann said that, although there is a perception that, as a coronavirus, Covid-19 is akin to a common cold, in reality it is closer to the flu in terms of the death rate, its impact on the NHS and the potential severity of symptoms.
Simon Williams, a sociologist at Swansea University who has researched public views on the pandemic, said: 'We're getting to the point where there's a legitimate question about whether it will ever be [a winter virus]. It's not a typical respiratory virus in terms of seasonality.'
Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said that because Covid-19 evolves quickly – twice as fast as the fastest flu – it is less constrained by season. 'Whereas a small change in transmissibility conditions is enough to stop flu in summer, Sars-CoV-2 can basically evolve its way over this barrier,' he said.
The main Covid viruses in circulation are the Omicron subvariants. These are 'obviously milder than Wuhan or Delta', Altmann said, adding it's not the case that they are becoming progressively milder, but rather population immunity is higher due to vaccines and prior infections.
The newest variant, NB.1.8.1, has been detected in the UK and international data suggests it is growing as a proportion of all Covid cases. World Health Organization analysis found the new strain is more contagious, but vaccination gives significant protection.
Williams said we can expect to keep seeing the virus evolve, similar to how there are new flu virus combinations each year.
The experts agreed the main problem is the low take-up of the free vaccine, which is available to people at greatest risk from Covid infection, including those aged 75 and over and those who are immunocompromised.
Altmann said anyone who could afford it may wish to pay for the vaccine – not least because he hears regularly from new long Covid sufferers: 'Who wouldn't feel safer with boosted neutralising antibodies and T-cells?'
He noted there is a spectrum of suffering, with people who are infected occasionally and mildly or non-symptomatically on one end, and on the other, those living with long Covid. There is also a third, under-researched, group in the middle of young or middle-aged people who get four to six reinfections per year, and may have to take several days off work each time. 'It's non-trivial and makes it quite hard to do your work,' he said.
Although there is still hybrid immunity in the population because most people received several vaccines during the pandemic, there is a growing population of children who would have been too young to have received them at the time.
The experts feared that growing vaccine hesitancy, which Williams described as 'one of the most pressing concerns' in public health, could have an impact on whether these children receive a jab or people turn up for their boosters.
Another consideration, when it comes to building immunity, is the growing body of research suggesting that for several months after a Covid infection, people become more vulnerable to other infections and there can be lingering effects on the heart, cardiovascular system and the brain.
'We're only five years into this virus, there's a lot of question marks and unknowns,' said Williams.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Daily Mail
a minute ago
- Daily Mail
Kenny Logan bravely reveals his sex life struggles with wife Gabby (and what he keeps private in the bedroom) after he had his prostate removed following cancer battle
Kenny Logan has bravely revealed his sex life struggles with wife Gabby to raise awareness for men who have also had their prostate removed. Former Scottish rugby international Kenny, 53, was diagnosed with cancer in February 2022 after Gabby, 52, urged him to go to the doctors. In a candid chat with the Telegraph, Kenny shared erections became 'impossible' during his cancer battle which he feared would take a toll on their sex life. He said: 'I was forewarned that prostatectomy meant that, at least for a while, getting erections would be impossible. That's a huge deal for any man.' 'I never allowed myself to stress "what if they never come back". Instead, I focused on being fit and cancer-free, I'm relentlessly positive. After about three months, I was relieved to have some movement down there. 'When it came to sex, things were 'inconsistent' let's say, for a good three months [after that].' Kenny also explained he used a 'penis pump' to to stimulate an erection, which he insists on keeping private in the bedroom. Vacuum pumps encourage blood to flow to the penis, causing an erection. They work for most men and can be used if medicine is not suitable or does not work, as per the NHS. He said: 'It's certainly not sexy... I used it for 10 minutes a day or so, several times in that first month, grateful Gabby was away working on the Commonwealth Games. 'I warned her that if she ever walked in on me using it and didn't back straight out the door, I'd never speak to her again! Some things are private, even in marriage.' Kenny and presenter Gabby have been married for over 22 years and share two children together. In February 2023, Kenny spoke candidly about the after-effects of treatment, and said they left him 'black and blue downstairs'. Speaking to The Telegraph at the time, he said: 'Whether it be my dyslexia, my relationship, IVF, we've always been quite open. So, I was quite happy to talk about erectile dysfunction and all these other things because I was like, "It is a symptom".' 'From a sexual point of view, it's not consistent. As the surgeon said to me, this could take 18 months. 'Within a month, I was getting movement, where he says, "That's amazing". So it's just not as consistent. The beauty is you can take a tablet and it changes things.' He explained that his brave honesty was motivated by his desire to help other people. Reiterating the need for all men his age to get checked, he said: 'If I can help one person, that'd be great. But I've probably helped a lot of people with the coverage it had.' The couple said Kenny was 'extremely lucky' they caught it early, which afforded him options regarding treatment. Kenny was inspired to go for a general check up after hearing guests on his wife's podcast discuss having their hormones tested. And when he did his results showed a high level of PSA - prostate-specific antigen. 'I got checked and very quickly, within three to four months, I had a biopsy and they said there was something there but they'd keep an eye on it,' he said. He said what stood out the most from that appointment was the specialist telling him '40 per cent of [his] mates have got this [high PSA levels] but don't know'. It doesn't always lead to cancer and many men go their entire lives not knowing. So when he was diagnosed with prostate cancer a short time later, Kenny recalled it being 'a huge shock'. He made the decision to remove the prostate entirely and is now three months post operation feeling almost as good as new. 'I'm probably about 90 per cent back to normal,' he said. Prostate cancer can often be treated if caught early, but symptoms usually do not show up until the cancer is already in advanced states. It is the most common cancer in men in the UK. The couple are encouraging men to learn more about the disease and consider talking to their GP about the risks. Every year, upwards of 52,300 men are diagnosed with prostate cancer in the UK - more than 140 every day. Up to 11,800 men in Britain die from prostate cancer annually, meaning it trails only lung and bowel cancer in yearly fatalities. WHAT IS PROSTATE CANCER? How many people does it kill? More than 11,800 men a year - or one every 45 minutes - are killed by the disease in Britain, compared with about 11,400 women dying of breast cancer. It means prostate cancer is behind only lung and bowel in terms of how many people it kills in Britain. In the US, the disease kills 26,000 men each year. Despite this, it receives less than half the research funding of breast cancer and treatments for the disease are trailing at least a decade behind. How many men are diagnosed annually? Every year, upwards of 52,300 men are diagnosed with prostate cancer in the UK - more than 140 every day. How quickly does it develop? Prostate cancer usually develops slowly, so there may be no signs someone has it for many years, according to the NHS. If the cancer is at an early stage and not causing symptoms, a policy of 'watchful waiting' or 'active surveillance' may be adopted. Some patients can be cured if the disease is treated in the early stages. But if it is diagnosed at a later stage, when it has spread, then it becomes terminal and treatment revolves around relieving symptoms. Thousands of men are put off seeking a diagnosis because of the known side effects from treatment, including erectile dysfunction. Tests and treatment Tests for prostate cancer are haphazard, with accurate tools only just beginning to emerge. There is no national prostate screening programme as for years the tests have been too inaccurate. Doctors struggle to distinguish between aggressive and less serious tumours, making it hard to decide on treatment. Men over 50 are eligible for a 'PSA' blood test which gives doctors a rough idea of whether a patient is at risk. But it is unreliable. Patients who get a positive result are usually given a biopsy which is also not fool-proof. Scientists are unsure as to what causes prostate cancer, but age, obesity and a lack of exercise are known risks. Anyone with any concerns can speak to Prostate Cancer UK's specialist nurses on 0800 074 8383 or visit
Daily Mail
a minute ago
- Daily Mail
New mum shrugged off this common complaint... but it was a sign of deadly breast cancer
A mother-of-four has told of her devastating cancer diagnosis after doctors initially dismissed a key symptom. Andrea Henderson, 41, from Northumberland, first went to her GP after experiencing a sharp stabbing pain in her chest and suffering from extreme fatigue. But, given her busy lifestyle juggling looking after her four children and her photography career, her doctor assured her it was nothing to worry about. Chest pain can develop for a number of reasons and is often caused by something harmless like indigestion or heartburn, according to the NHS. But when she noticed her nipple was bleeding after showering one morning in February, alarm bells began to ring. Ms Henderson contacted her GP surgery straight away and booked in for a same-day appointment, voicing her cancer concerns. 'It was a spontaneous bleed and right away, I called my GP for a same-day appointment,' she recalled. Ms Henderson's GP examined her breasts and discovered a tiny lump underneath her left nipple, which was around the size of a grain of rice. A lump, and nipple discharge which may have blood in it, are common symptoms of breast cancer. 'They were very good after that', the mother-of-four added. 'I was seen straight away and referred to the cancer clinic.' Scans and a biopsy later revealed that she had HER2 positive breast cancer—an aggressive form of the disease accounting for around 15 in every 100 cases. Ms Henderson said she felt 'horrible' hearing those words after her symptoms had been brushed off for over a year. 'The consultant had even said to me: "Oh, I don't think this looks like cancer, I've seen it in lots of women"', she recalled. She then had an MRI on chest to check if the cancer had spread to nearby lymph nodes, where it would be harder to treat. The scan revealed a 4.9cm tumour in her chest which contained some aggressive cancer cells. Just two months later the mother-of-four underwent a mastectomy to remove the tumour followed by reconstructive surgery to make a new breast on 4 June. 'It was terrifying,' she said. 'Knowing how much life was going to change—I felt horrible. 'Especially losing a breast—you have to really find out that beauty is soul-deep and nothing to do with how you look.' She was also told that she would need 10 years of hormone therapy to lower the amount of estrogen in her body and block its effects to lower the risk of the cancer returning. Also known as endocrine therapy, this treatment will trigger early menopause, leaving her infertile. Reflecting on her diagnosis, Ms Henderson said: 'Cancer really strips you back to the bare minimum, and I think it's making me a lot stronger than I already was.' Yesterday Ms Henderson started the first of eight gruelling rounds of chemotherapy which will take her through to December. Together with her family she has launched a GoFundMe to enable her to take time away from work and focus on her treatment. She is now urging young women to check their breasts regularly and calling on officials to lower the age of breast cancer screenings on the NHS. 'Younger women always have a worse prognosis because we have a lot more estrogen,' she explained. 'We need to start having routine mammograms for younger women too because a lot of things can get missed,' she added. 'While checking your breasts it is so important not to miss your nipples out—just because they're naturally bumpier doesn't mean they're immune. 'Check under your arms too', she added. 'look out for any dimpling or swelling, as well as inverting in the nipple and general changes in the breast. Her warning comes as millions of women in England could soon be offered breast cancer checks as young as thiry on the NHS. Currently, al women aged between 50 and 70 are invited for screening every three years, with the first invitation arriving between the age of 50 and 53. But every year, more than 10,000 women who are deemed too young to be offered a check are diagnosed with the disease, with 2,000 deaths among those below the age of 50. Now a groundbreaking new trial has found almost one in five women screened in their thirties have an increased risk of developing breast cancer. Experts, led by Dr Sacha Howell from the world-renowned Chritis hospital in Manchester, are now calling for all women to be offered a 'comprehensive risk assessment' at the age of 30. One in seven women in the UK are diagnosed with breast cancer in their lifetime making it the most common cancer in the UK. Around 85 per cent of women diagnosed with breast cancer survive more than five years. Figures show that currently a third of women asked for screening do not attend. That rises to almost half of women who are invited for the first time.
The Sun
a minute ago
- The Sun
What is the difference between bio and non-bio laundry detergent?
Choosing between bio and non-bio detergents can be confusing - here is a breakdown to help you get the best laundry results. The main difference between the two most common varieties of detergent comes down to the enzymes in the product, but here is a more detailed guide. 1 The difference between bio and non-bio detergents Bio detergents contain enzymes which make it easier to break down the dirt that builds up in your clothes. These enzymes work to rid your laundry of common stains, such as food, grass, sweat and grease. According to popular cleaning brand Smol, once these stains are broken down, they are much easier to lift and wash from your clothes. Essentially bio products make stain removal a quick and easy task. Smol also explained that this type of detergent is best used on mid to low temperature washes (30-40 degrees). If the wash is too hot, it may cause the enzymes to denature and therefore not work as effectively. Alternatively, non-bio detergents do not contain enzymes. This can be a better option if you suffer from sensitive skin. Although this type of detergent doesn't contain the same stain removing enzymes, it can still be just as effective and leave your clothes fresh and stain free. You may just need to use a slightly higher temperature to assist the cleaning process. How to hang out your washing on the line and do no ironing, folding or sorting when it's dry The benefits of the different detergents The main benefit of using a bio detergent is that the enzymes improve and speed up the stain removal process. The enzymes also allow for you to effectively wash your clothes at a lower temperature which makes for a more cost-efficient method. However, non-bio products are recommended to those with more sensitive skin or allergies, as you are less likely to suffer from any irritation. It is also preferable when washing delicate fabrics such as silk and wool, reports The Cleaning Collective. These types of materials contain proteins which the enzymes in bio detergents can damage. Non-bio is also recommended for children, who again may have more sensitive skin. Smol's guidance explains that it is still effective at killing germs and bacteria while also remaining gentle and delicate on young skin. What to buy According to SuperSavvyMe, the Fairy Non-Bio range has been voted the best laundry detergent brand for sensitive skin. Its products have been dermatologically approved by the Skin Health Alliance and are appropriate for adults and children alike. Laundry tips Catherine Green, sustainable cleaning expert at smol shared her laundry tips. How often should you be remaking your bed? When it comes to your bed, maintaining a hygienic sleep setup can actually improve your sleep quality, helping you start every day better. Most people shed 500 million skin cells per day and a lot of that ends up in bed for dust mites to feed on. And those with asthma or allergies might see symptoms worsen by sleeping on dirty sheets! You want to be washing your sheets once a week - or every 10 days if you don't suffer from allergies and wear nightclothes. Bedding builds up with sweat, skin cells and oils quickly, even if it doesn't look dirty. Using an effective detergent like smol's will still give you a great clean on a 20°C cycle - that's better for the planet and your energy bills! What temperature do smol recommend then? For your regular weekly washes I recommend washing most loads at 20°C for 30 minutes. It's gentler on fabrics, slashes energy use, and still delivers excellent stain removal with the right detergent. A colder wash can actually be more effective if you opt for a bio detergent as its enzymes need cooler water; too hot and they lose their ability to digest stains. A wash at 60°c (unless you have silk sheets) every now and again can help kill off dust mites and other nasties. What's the difference between bio and non-bio detergent? Bio detergents contain enzymes, which are especially good at breaking down tough stains like food, grass, or sweat. It's best used in mid to low temperature washes (ideally between 20-40°C) as anything hotter can cause them not to work effectively. Non-bio skips the enzymes, which in turn makes it more suitable for those with sensitive skin or allergies. Although non-bio doesn't contain enzymes, it's still great at removing stains and keeping your clothes clean, you just may need to use a slightly higher temperature setting to aid with the cleaning process.
