Ukraine will lose. Britain must now prepare for Russia's next onslaught

Telegraph

19 hours ago

It is time to put outrage, passion and wishful thinking aside and face facts: in what may well go down in history as the West's gravest foreign policy failing of the 21st century, Ukraine has lost the war against Russia.
The conflict is likely to come to an end sooner rather than later – and on terms that favour Putin. Britain must accept that the Ukraine war is all but over – and prepare for an even bigger brewing conflict.
Tomorrow's Alaska talks between Trump and Putin have scandalised European opinion. British defence sources have vented to me their disgust at the free world's leader sitting down with the most ruthless authoritarian ruler alive to carve chunks out of a country that has fought heroically for the liberal, democratic principles upon which America was founded – principles that are fading from a US foreign policy that is increasingly transactional. That Trump hopes to seal the deal by granting Putin access to Ukrainian rare minerals has added a neocolonial whiff to the stench of betrayal.
Europe's righteous indignation is tinged with hypocrisy. Ukraine has been burned not only by Trump's unsparing America First policy, but by Europe's disastrous refusal to invest in its own defence. An end to the war is imminent – and it will plunge Europe into its most perilous moment since 1939.
The geopolitical dynamics that have enabled Ukraine to hold the line against Russia have shifted. The Biden administration was content to keep the war in permanent stalemate. The hope was that the West could sap Russia's power over time, while minimising the risk of a nuclear confrontation.
But the Trump administration, far from wanting to slowly destroy Russia, seeks to nurture Moscow as an ally, as it scrambles to contain the biggest threat to US supremacy – a rising China. As Moscow becomes ever more reliant on Beijing's oil purchases and investment, Washington fears that a cash-strapped and isolated Russia risks becoming a satellite state of China.
There is now a strategic logic for both Kyiv and Moscow to end the war. With the West unwilling to decisively ramp up support, Ukraine knows that the longer the war continues, the more calamitous it will be for Ukraine economically, demographically and – in a country with shallow democratic roots – also politically.
Washington's leading Russia experts such as Thomas Graham, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, believe that Russia is on the cusp of a bankable win: 'If the Kremlin were to reach a negotiated solution right now, they would get most of what they want. Ukraine is not going to join Nato. The Russians aren't going to be pushed out of the territory that they occupy in Ukraine. The issue of discrimination against Russian speakers ought to be resolved because most of those Russian speakers live in territory occupied by Russia at this point.'
Trump allies are quietly confident that Putin has come to realise that his more grandiose ambitions risk backfiring: the longer a war intended to protect Russian greatness drags on, the more the country risks slipping down the great power rankings.
Trump will get his deal, even if the Alaska talks come to naught. Instead of denouncing Trump, Britain should put all its energy into getting ready for a new high-stakes epoch.
Even Trump allies voiced to me their fear that the President could draw up a slapdash agreement that rips huge chunks out of Ukraine – and strongarm Europe into agreeing by threatening to block the Continent from using US-obtained weapons and technology in Ukraine.
Putin will be emboldened by the deal that is inevitably coming. He will focus on replenishing his army and mulling over other expansionist plans against Moldova and Georgia. It is not unthinkable that a full-scale Europe-wide conflict could break out within the coming decade.
The best way to prevent such a scenario is to build up Europe's military power to a degree that deters Putin, particularly in light of America's effective withdrawal from the region.
Britain in particular needs to get its finger out. In its determination that we should remain a great military power, the political class dodges the question of which lethal capabilities to focus on. The UK needs to decide whether it can best serve Europe by building up its land army or playing to its naval and air-based strengths.
Some in defence circles want us to focus on defending the Arctic North, where Russia's shadow fleet threatens critical infrastructure like undersea cables, and wargaming how the RAF could lend cover to expanded German and Polish land powers in the event of a world war. A decision must be made either way – and it must be made soon.
Britain must also prepare for a new era of hybrid warfare. According to Russia expert Mark Galeotti, Moscow is moving away from big ticket cyber attacks towards sabotaging crumbling services in a way that contributes to our sense that 'everything is broken'.
As a result of what Galeotti has dubbed this the 'weaponisation of inconvenience', the result might be that we find streaming a film at night impossible, or that we cannot book a train ticket because the online platform is down.
Galeotti tells me: 'The essence of the Russian approach to warfare is to try and paralyse us, to get us so disillusioned with our system that we are so busy thinking that nothing works and questioning the fundamentals, that we are unable to muster any kind of organised obstacles to Russian activity.'
Britain is dangerously ill equipped for dealing with this unfamiliar, powerful new kind of conflict. Russia will take particular pleasure in targeting us. The Kremlin harbours a surreal enmity towards Britain; earnest Anglophilia bleeds into unhinged Anglophobia.
Russian elites tend to view Britain as a nation of high intellects, regarding UK education as the absolute pinnacle and even romantically reckoning that British police stations are staffed by Sherlock Holmes geniuses.
By the same logic, the Kremlin tends to see the British as the most brilliantly sneaky of Western antagonists. The Kremlin is convinced that Britain gave America the idea of spurring Ukraine's Orange Revolution – and is preparing to mete revenge.
As a new dark age descends on Europe, there is little time for reproach and regret. Our world is becoming more dangerous; we need to be ready.