Drenching storms, cooler air to expand southward along West Coast
The storm that arrived along the Washington and Oregon coasts late Wednesday failed to produce severe thunderstorms, primarily due to its late arrival. However, some locally heavy and gusty thunderstorms still developed along the Interstate 5 corridor.
With thick clouds and drenching rain persisting along the coast into Friday, ponding may occur on some highways, rainfall could be heavy enough to trigger some rock and mudslides in the hilly terrain.
Snow levels will lower in the Cascades, Siskiyous and northern Sierra Nevada into Friday. A mixture of rain and wet snow will fall over the ridges and peaks, with up to a foot of accumulation possible.
East of the Cascades, a second round of gusty thunderstorms with hail is possible Thursday afternoon and evening as just enough warmth lingers in the lower part of the atmosphere and much colder air arrives aloft. Chilly air will mix down Thursday night and Friday.
As the warmth-busting storm moves well inland on Saturday and Sunday, some dry air will follow. Where the March sun emerges, it will help spark a modest temperature rebound along much of the Pacific coast.
Another storm well offshore as of Thursday will roll in later this weekend. The exact track and intensity of that storm is fluctuating, but indications suggest that at least a broad plume of moisture from the storm will move in farther south along the Pacific coast as the jet stream dips more.Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+
Rain may soak some coastal areas in southern Oregon and Northern and Central California, with showers breaking inland from Sunday to Monday.
Next week, additional storms carrying batches of moisture will roll in from the Pacific. At least one system will bring opportunities for some late-season rain and mountain snow in Northern and Central California.
The best chance of rain showers to reach coastal areas of Southern California - including Los Angeles and San Diego - will be from Wednesday to Friday.
"The zone that could be the biggest beneficiary of the pattern through next week may stretch from southwestern Oregon to northwestern California," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
Between 5 and 10 inches of rain could fall in part of the region.
"As the pattern continues to evolve through next week, several feet of snow could fall in the high country of the Sierra Nevada, which would be a fine boost to seasonal totals prior to the end of wintry weather," Rayno added.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.

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USA Today
3 hours ago
- USA Today
Will Tropical Storm Erin hit the US or turn? Here's what early forecasts say.
For now, most reliable computer models that meteorologists use show Erin curving away from the United States, spinning off the East Coast later in August. Tropical Storm Erin, which is still thousands of miles from the U.S. East Coast in the central Atlantic Ocean, is traveling west and forecast to strengthen into the season's first hurricane by Aug. 14, the National Hurricane Center said. But will it hit the United States? Most reliable computer models that meteorologists use to forecast storms show Erin curving away from the United States, spinning off the East Coast in mid-August. "It is too soon to discount – or pinpoint – USA landfall impacts from Erin but based upon current model guidance – the chance RIGHT NOW is low, at less than 10%," said Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue in an email to USA TODAY Aug. 11. WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry added a note of caution, telling USA TODAY that "it's worth reiterating that forecasts 5 to 10 days out are subject to large errors, so we'll need to hang tight before confidently giving the U.S. the all-clear." Maue predicted that "as the Lower 48 comes into view of Erin in the next few days, our models will become more confident/certain on the eventual outcome — so we should know on Thursday (Aug. 14) what will happen." However, even if Erin does avoid landfall on the United States, "there will be a significant increase in seas, surf and rip currents along the East Coast beaches next weekend into the following week," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Chad Merrill said. What forces are guiding Erin? As is often the case with Atlantic hurricanes, Erin's path will be primarily determined by the strength of the Bermuda High, a semi-permanent ridge of high pressure that sits over the western Atlantic Ocean in the summer. The stronger the Bermuda High, the more of a threat Erin is to the United States. A weaker Bermuda High is better news. "Erin will be guided along by the northeast trade winds initially and then the clockwise circulation around the massive Bermuda High over the central Atlantic," AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said. As of the morning of Aug. 12, the hurricane center reported that Erin should head west and slow down as the Bermuda High weakens slightly. Later in the forecast period, the high is expected to weaken a little more, and a more west-northwestward track is likely. Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza said the track forecast is in decent model agreement, "showing a good, tight track consensus through Sunday or Monday, bringing the storm north of the Caribbean islands." Warm waters could fuel major hurricane All signs point to Erin reaching major hurricane status, the hurricane center said. This means the storm will reach Category 3 status, with sustained wind speeds of at least 111 mph. The forecast is due to warm waters where the storm is expected to track, providing fuel for the storm, the hurricane center said. Low wind sheer could also help Erin strengthen There will also be a lack of wind shear that acts to tear developing hurricanes apart. "Low wind shear (a lack of disruptive winds) north of the Caribbean and much warmer water could really allow Erin to strengthen rapidly late this week and this weekend," AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno said in an online report. What parts of the US coast are most at risk? AccuWeather said that a major hurricane passing 100 miles east of the United States or west of Bermuda could still bring tropical storm conditions in terms of wind, heavy seas and perhaps heavy rain. "Land that extends farther to the east might be the most prone in this case, such as coastal areas of North Carolina, Long Island, New York, and Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard in New England," said AccuWeather meteorologists Alex Sosnowski and Elizabeth Danco in an online report. In Canada, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland could be facing more significant impacts from Erin. How worried should people be? The hurricane center, as always, stressed caution: It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may bring to the east coast of the United States, the hurricane center said Aug. 12. However, the hurricane center said "As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place." Checklist: How to prepare your house for a hurricane Lanza said the odds favor a miss: "History favors an out to sea track, though not at 100 percent. Of the 56 known named storms track within 120 nautical miles of Erin's forecast position in 24 hours, 51 of them have gone out to sea, a U.S. hit rate of about 9 percent."


USA Today
4 hours ago
- USA Today
When will Tropical Storm Erin become a hurricane?
Hurricane forecasters say Tropical Storm Erin is set to strengthen into a hurricane and then a major hurricane within a matter of days. The storm is spinning out in the Atlantic, with forecasts showing a track heading toward the United States. But with great uncertainty in the long-term forecast track, it's too early to know what impact, if any, Erin will have. As of 11 a.m. on Aug. 12, the National Hurricane Center predicts the storm will reach hurricane intensity on Thursday, Aug. 14 and become a major hurricane on Sunday, Aug. 17. Hurricanes have winds of 74 mph or higher and major hurricanes have winds of 111 mph or higher. Storm tracker: Tropical Storm Erin expected to strengthen into major hurricane The storm, which formed near the Cabo Verde Islands off the West African Coast, is likely to be the first major Atlantic hurricane of the season, forecasters say. Warm ocean waters and low wind shear are helping Erin along, according to A Bermuda high is among the factors that could impact how Erin progresses toward the U.S. 'Erin will bring gusty wind and heavy rain to northern Puerto Rico as it passes to the north this weekend," AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said in an email. One to 2 inches of rain is expected on the northern side of the island, but there may be pockets that see as much as 7 inches of rain, bringing the risk of flash flooding, DaSilva added. Winds could gust to 80 mph, triggering some power outages as well. Map shows Erin forecast track This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. Contributing: Chris Cann, Doyle Rice and Joel Shannon
Yahoo
a day ago
- Yahoo
Tropical Storm Erin to become hurricane. Where it's going, Sarasota, Bradenton impact
Tropical Storm Erin formed in the Atlantic Monday morning, Aug. 11. The National Hurricane Center issued its first advisory on the fifth-named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season at 11 a.m., warning Erin could become a hurricane by Wednesday, Aug. 13 and a major hurricane by Saturday, Aug. 16, as it moves quickly west across the Atlantic. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location AccuWeather forecasters are predicting Erin could turn north on a parallel path to Florida as it approaches the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center is also tracking a new disturbance in the Gulf, which has a low chance for development but could bring heavy rainfall to the Florida Panhandle over the next day or two. Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, at its 2 p.m. advisory, the National Hurricane Center was tracking two other systems. Invest 96L is moving north in the central Atlantic and has a low chance for development. Another disturbance is a non-tropical area of low pressure a few hundred miles south-southeast of Nova Scotia. It also has a low chance for development. Will Sarasota, Bradenton and Manatee County see impacts from Erin? Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 p.m., Aug. 11: Tropical Storm Erin develops in eastern Atlantic. Expected to become major hurricane Invest 97L became Tropical Storm Erin Monday morning, with the National Hurricane Center issuing its first advisory on the system at 11 a.m. Aug. 11. Forecasters are predicting Erin will continue to strengthen as it moves quickly across the Atlantic, becoming a hurricane on Wednesday, Aug. 13, and a major hurricane with 115-mph winds by Saturday, Aug. 16. NOAA hurricane tracker: See spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Erin Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. ➤ Track Tropical Storm Erin National Hurricane Center tracking 4 systems. How likely are they to strengthen? Northeastern Gulf: A weak surface trough in the northeastern Gulf near the Florida Panhandle is associated with a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland, locally heavy rainfall could produce flash-flooding along portions of the Florida Panhandle over the next day or so. Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days: low, near 0 percent. Invest 96L: A weak surface trough of low pressure located over the central Atlantic is interacting with an upper-level trough, producing scattered disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Significant development of this system appears unlikely over the next few days as the system drifts generally northward, remaining over the central Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent. Formation chance through seven days: low, 10 percent. Area of low pressure: A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located a few hundred miles to the south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. While current shower and thunderstorm activity with the system remains limited, this system is drifting over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and some tropical or subtropical development could occur over the next day or two. By the middle of this week, the system isexpected to move northward over cooler waters, ending its chances for further tropical development. Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent. Formation chance through seven days: low, 10 percent. What is an invest? Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm. Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They're usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they've been designated as an invest does not guarantee they'll strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane. Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90. Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models. What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean? The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome. The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high. The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception. "If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said. Are Sarasota, Bradenton, Manatee County likely to be impacted by Tropical Storm Erin? It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from Tropical Storm Erin. ➤ Excessive rainfall forecast Erin could bring an increase in rough surf and rip currents to the east coast next weekend and into early next week, even if it curves north, staying away from Florida and the U.S., according to AccuWeather. "The tropics remain quiet, and are likely to stay that way for another 10 days or more," said Ryan Truchelut on Aug. 9. "While there is hope the active peak months of hurricane season may not translate into another awful year in human terms, the reality is that U.S. hurricane impacts are likely and to be expected over the next few months." Truchelut is the chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger and works with the USA TODAY Network. Sarasota, Bradenton, Manatee County weather radar for Aug. 11, 2025. See rain associated with system in Gulf A disturbance in the northeast Gulf has a near 0 percent chance of developing before it moves onshore, the National Hurricane Center said "locally heavy rainfall could produce flash-flooding along portions of the Florida Panhandle overthe next day or so." Weather watches and warnings issued in Sarasota, Bradenton, Manatee County When is the Atlantic hurricane season? The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. When is the peak of hurricane season? The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Hurricane names for 2025 season Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them. The first hurricane of the season typically forms Aug. 11. Andrea (June 20) Barry (June 29) Chantal (July 5) Dexter: (Aug. 3) Erin: AIR-rin (Aug. 11) Fernand: fair-NAHN (historically forms Aug. 29) Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah Jerry: JEHR-ee Karen: KAIR-ren Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh Melissa: meh-LIH-suh Nestor: NES-tor Olga: OAL-guh Pablo: PAHB-lo Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en Tanya: TAHN-yuh Van: van Wendy: WEN-dee National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Why does NHC say 'tropical cyclone' on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm? Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text What's next? We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Tropical Storm Erin 2025 spaghetti models. Sarasota, Bradenton impact