Cubs, White Sox enter spring training with differing but modest hopes of improvement

New York Times

14-02-2025

Jed Hoyer took a swing, made contact and watched his home run attempt die in a glove.
Metaphorically speaking, that is.
Hoyer, the Cubs president, needed some fence-clearing pop to win the services of Alex Bregman, the last remaining star-caliber free agent, but the actual result was just another Wrigley Field fly ball.
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Cubs detail Alex Bregman pursuit: 'We made the best offer we could make'
You know the type. The fans in the stands think the swing is taking a pitcher to the bleachers, but those who are watching the outfielders know the ball is staying in the yard. No one advances, no one scores. A swing and an opportunity lost. It happens.
The failure of Hoyer's free-agent swing is not difficult to comprehend. He just didn't have the financial muscle. Bregman signed with the Boston Red Sox because they offered the same money as the Cubs for fewer years, along with the opt-outs and deferrals that are all the rage.
'I feel like we made a strong offer but clearly it wasn't enough.'
Jed Hoyer on Alex Bregman. pic.twitter.com/mB63RC3TLL
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) February 13, 2025
You could tell, even from afar, how disappointed Hoyer was with the finality of it all. He mentions 'budget' a lot more often than 'World Series' these days.
Hoyer's old employer in Boston has been in the same category as his current one in recent years — big-market teams attempting to claw their way back to national relevancy.
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This offseason, the Cubs traded for one year of Kyle Tucker, while the Red Sox traded prospects for White Sox pitcher Garrett Crochet and paid for three years (maybe) of Bregman. Neither team is projected to finish anywhere near the World Series.
Boston's latest projected win total, according to Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA formula, is 80.4 wins, which wouldn't lift it out of the cellar of the AL East. The Cubs have a much rosier PECOTA outlook at 90.7 wins, which would easily clear their NL Central contenders. Boston's odds of winning it all are a paltry 1.1 percent, while the Cubs' are at 7.8 percent. These franchises, both of which have touted farm systems again, are not quite contenders. But his counterparts in Boston are much happier today.
Odds can change, of course. Spring training just started. But spring is the time to set expectations and for the Cubs, it's winning the division. Bregman could have helped make them more formidable in the postseason, but they should still accomplish their goal of winning the NL Central and I believe that is how Hoyer, who is in the last year of his contract, will be judged.
PECOTA currently gives the Cubs a 78 percent chance to win the NL Central. The betting markets have made them division favorites as well, with win totals between 85.5 (DraftKings and BetRivers) and 87.5 (FanDuel).
Hoyer's boss, chairman Tom Ricketts, isn't an ultimatum-setting kind of owner — that is too bold — but he wants to see a division title and a return to the playoffs for the first time (not including the pandemic-shortened 2020 season) since 2018. I don't think that's too much to ask, even if it's too little for a man in his role to seek.
For the Cubs, the World Series, once an obsession, is now a destination only in the abstract and it's still difficult for people in Chicago to handle. Wasn't the 2016 title, the remodeling of Wrigley Field, the Rickettsization of Wrigleyville and the move to a standalone TV channel supposed to herald a golden financial age? (It's a rhetorical question.)
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I will be pleasantly surprised if the Cubs ever pay top dollar for a marquee free agent again, starting with Tucker. If he stays healthy and hits like he's capable of, he'll likely be an ex-Cub by this time next year. He was acquired to help the Cubs win now. Like right now.
Then again, if the $120 million not spent on Bregman is reallocated to a longer deal for Tucker, I'll happily be proven wrong. But I'm not pre-writing an apology column.
In an interview with the team's radio partner at Cubs Convention, Ricketts addressed the people who think the Cubs should be offering massive contracts to stars like the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees have done lately: 'I understand when fans say, 'How come you don't spend like that?' Because they think somehow we have all these dollars that the Dodgers have or the Mets have or the Yankees have and we just keep it. Which isn't true at all. What happens is we try to break even every year, and that's about it.'
Not exactly rousing stuff, but Ricketts isn't exactly an inspiring owner. He's better suited to own the Milwaukee Brewers or Pittsburgh Pirates, but his family will own the Cubs forever after buying them just before the economics of baseball went bonkers.
Still, his modest goals haven't been met by Hoyer or the players, as the Cubs have had a runway to win the NL Central in the last two years and finished well short with 83 wins, putting them behind the Brewers both times.
Hoyer seemingly improved the bullpen this year, taking advantage of other teams shedding late-30s backend relievers, which should help. Shoddy relief pitching cost the Cubs victories the last two seasons, which is mostly why they've finished below their Pythagorean win total. (Craig Counsell didn't do much to show he was worth the biggest contract in managerial history, but perhaps his strategic edge shows up this year.)
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Still, the addition of Tucker and the possibilities that Matt Shaw will rake as a rookie, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch will keep getting better, Dansby Swanson will return to form and Seiya Suzuki will stay healthy, well, that's what sells best this time of year right? Hope.
Meanwhile, in Glendale, Ariz., where Hoyer's friend Chris Getz is running the show, the hope for the White Sox is much more modest.
'You look at our record last year,' Getz said in his opening news conference, 'we want to win more games this year. What exactly is that amount, time will tell.'
Like most executives, Getz doesn't want to set an actual win-total goal, but in his case, it would be because his guess would be way too embarrassing to say in front of microphones.
When asked if the Sox would provide a more watchable product than last year — when they went 41-121, breaking the 1962 Mets' mark for modern-day baseball futility — Getz reiterated his point without making a guarantee.
Chris Getz, White Sox GM. Camp opens tomorrow pic.twitter.com/Tc63kDUmZv
— Daryl Van Schouwen (@CST_soxvan) February 11, 2025
'I do think we're going to win more games than we did last year,' he said. 'Unfortunately, there are going to be some growing pains along the way that at times are going to challenge your emotions, but that's part of the development of some of these players. We need to be patient.'
The Sox have a promising farm system, led by left-handed starting pitchers Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith, but even with new manager Will Venable replacing Pedro Grifol, their major-league team looks like it will again be one of the worst in baseball. I guess that's a step up from worst ever.
PECOTA has them at 61.4-100.6, a potential 20-game improvement, though the projections had them winning 66 games last year. I guess their fancy algorithms weren't equipped to accurately predict the chaos of the White Sox.
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It's not every day a team scores 507 runs and gives up 813. In 2025, PECOTA projects the Sox, as currently constructed, to score 627 and give up 804, the numbers of a 101-loss team.
The betting markets have a lower opinion of the Sox. On BetMGM (the official partner of The Athletic), their win total is set at 52.5 (-125 for the over). You can get a slightly better price at FanDuel (52.5, -118), though the number is 53.5 (-110) at both DraftKings and BetRivers.
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My feelings on the team are such that I think the hook could be in play. Losing less than 100 games would warrant a party on the South Side and maybe a two-man statue for Venable and Getz.
The big-league pitching staff is not promising — FanGraphs noted the Sox bullpen is the worst the website's formula has ever measured at this point in the offseason — and outside of Luis Robert, who could be traded any day from now until the end of July, the hitters aren't very scary. Still, it took a lot of bad juju for this team to win only 41 games. It can only get better, right?
Like Getz said, I think so, and like him, I won't make any promises in February.
(Photo of Kyle Tucker hitting against the Cubs at Wrigley Field last season: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)