Democrats Get Good News from Most Accurate Pollster About Key Trump Issue

Newsweek

2 days ago

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American voters trust Democrats more than Republicans on immigration, which has been a key issue for President Donald Trump throughout his political career, according to a new poll from AtlasIntel.
Heath Brown, professor of public policy at the City University of New York, told Newsweek in part that "it could come down to the difference between campaign rhetoric and actual governance."
Newsweek reached out to the Republican and Democratic national committees for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Trump, for a decade, has emphasized immigration as his key policy—launching his 2016 presidential campaign with a promise to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, with a focus on mass deportations during his 2024 campaign. Polling suggested immigration was a key issue as to why many of his voters supported him over former Vice President Kamala Harris last November.
However, a flurry of recent surveys suggests the GOP's grip on immigration has slipped amid backlash to his mass deportations. This includes the latest survey from AtlasIntel, which was the most accurate pollster during the 2024 election.
What to Know
The pollster found that Democrats now have an advantage over Republicans on most key political issues, including inflation, healthcare, and foreign policy. It also found that Democrats have chipped away at Republican support on immigration issues.
Demonstrators hold up signs outside an immigration court in New York City during the Good Trouble Lives On protests on July 17, 2025.
Demonstrators hold up signs outside an immigration court in New York City during the Good Trouble Lives On protests on July 17, 2025.
ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images
Only 45 percent of respondents said they trusted Republicans more on immigration, while 49 percent said they trusted Democrats more on the matter.
Meanwhile, a majority of Americans also disapprove of Trump's handling of immigration, with 53 percent giving him negative marks and only 42 percent approving of his approach, according to the poll.
The poll surveyed 1,935 respondents from July 13 to July 18, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Heath Brown, professor of public policy at the City University of New York, told Newsweek that "it could come down to the difference between campaign rhetoric and actual governance."
"Vague campaign promises to address immigration policy may have been popular among voters in 2024," he said. "However, faced with the reality of extreme immigration policies that curtail non-US students enrollment at US universities, raid places of work and education, and prohibit due process for deportation cases, a majority of Americans are very much opposed."
The poll is a "reflection of the overall dissatisfaction of many Americans with the Trump policy agenda," he said.
Throughout Trump's second term in office, there has been an increase of ICE raids across the country that have sparked protests in places like Los Angeles. Thousands of immigrants, including some who are in the country legally, have been arrested.
Other measures, like the "Alligator Alcatraz" detention center in Florida's Everglades, are unpopular among most Americans. Proponents of the fast-build center, however, say it is necessary to deal with the number of new beds needed.
Supporters of the GOP's immigration policy note that border crossings have decreased under his administration.
What People Are Saying
Representative Mike Levin, a California Democrat, wrote in an X post Saturday: "Latest Reuters poll shows disapproval for Trump's immigration policy has surged since February. Americans want security AND humanity, not cruelty and chaos. That's why we need bipartisan, common sense reform like our DIGNITY Act, rooted in real solutions."
CNN Harry Enten said earlier in July: "The American people have turned against President Donald Trump on what was his best issue. One in which he had a positive net approval rating for most of his term, and arguably the issue that got him, of course, the GOP nomination all the way back in 2016. And one of the issues, of course, he used last year to quite a successful degree."
What Happens Next
Trump's mass deportations continue across the United States, though parts of his immigration agenda have been held up in court. Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" increased funding for ICE.