Trump doubles tariff on India for Russian crude oil imports; what does it mean for Indian stock market?
The new tariff structure, announced late Wednesday, will come into effect after a 21-day grace period, starting August 27, 2025. While this window leaves room for a negotiated resolution, the options appear limited for both sides.
'We expect the markets to fall by 1-2% in a knee-jerk reaction, but most would expect a resolution of the same,' said Dhiraj Relli, MD & CEO of HDFC Securities. He estimates that if the tariffs remain in place for a full year, India's GDP could take a 30 – 40 basis point hit.
Export-oriented sectors such as IT services, textiles, engineering goods, pharmaceuticals, and auto components are expected to bear the brunt. Additionally, retaliatory tariffs from India could trigger a wider US–India trade conflict, he added.
'Market participants will hope that these negotiations will resolve the issue before the actual implementation of the duties,' Relli said.
According to Seshadri Sen, Head of Research and Strategist at Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd, the 21-day buffer period leaves open the possibility of sectoral exemptions or negotiated relief.
'As it stands, this could bring exports from affected sectors - textiles, jewelry, auto ancillaries - to a standstill and hurt some of India's labor-intensive sectors. We, however, see the broader economy staying resilient and remain convinced of a 2HFY26 consumption-led recovery,' Sen said.
He advises investors to buy the dip if market correction exceeds 5%, given the limited direct earnings impact on the listed universe and more attractive valuations below long-term averages.
Sen identifies the most sectors and stocks impacted by the US tariffs:
Textiles: Gokaldas Exports, Kitex Garments
Chemicals: Camlin Fine Sciences, Aarti Industries, Atul Ltd
Auto Ancillaries: Bharat Forge, Suprajit Engineering, Sona BLW Precision Forgings
If India cuts Russian crude imports as part of the settlement, Reliance Industries and the oil marketing companies (OMCs) are vulnerable – also, crude prices could spike, he added.
Pharmaceuticals and electronic manufacturing services (EMS) appear to be exempt from the tariff list for now. However, Sen cautions that sentiment around EMS stocks could be impacted depending on an announcement from Apple.
Sen outlines a cautious yet opportunistic investment strategy:
1. Look through the near-term volatility. 'Trying to trade this uncertainty is highly risky. There are multiple variables at play – renegotiated tariffs, sectoral carve-outs and carve-ins, and India slowing Russian oil imports.'
2. Minimize exposure to export-oriented and globally exposed sectors. 'Even if the final trade agreement is not as bad as it appears now, a sharp slowdown in the global economy looks inevitable'
3. Buy the dip: If the market correction goes above 5% from here, valuations would then be comfortable at well below the LTA and, the direct impact on the listed universe earnings is negligible. Also, this does not impede India's 2HFY26 cyclical growth recovery, which is largely driven by domestic impulses.
4. Stick to sector preferences: Emkay maintains an overweight (OW) stance on Consumer Discretionary and Industrials, and an underweight (UW) view on Financials, Technology, and Consumer Staples.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Time of India
5 minutes ago
- Time of India
Putin makes stopover in Magadan on his way to Alaska summit with Trump
Russian President Vladimir Putin on his way to Alaska for the summit with his US counterpart Donald Trump made a stopover in Magadan, a port city on the Sea of Okhotsk in Russia's far North-East. During his stay in the city, Putin visited Omega-C factory manufacturing products based on fish oil. He spoke to the regional officials at a conference on master plan of Magadan's development. Russian leader also visited local sport complex where he met the players of children's ice-hockey team. Show more Show less
&w=3840&q=100)
Business Standard
5 minutes ago
- Business Standard
PM Modi pushes for 'swadeshi', 'atmanirbharta' in Independence Day speech
At least until the 1991 economic reforms, the tenets of 'Swadeshi', or made in India, and 'Atmanirbharta', or self-reliance, which took inspiration from the country's freedom struggle and got reinforced during India's difficult initial years as an independent nation, were integral part of the country's political lexicon, including that of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the ideological parent of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The RSS, which marks its centenary this year, has also for some decades flagged the dangers of demographic changes taking place in the country's border districts. On Friday, in his Independence Day (I-Day) speech from the ramparts of the Red Fort, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke at length on these issues. He urged the people to embrace 'swadeshi', and detailed his government's commitment to achieve self-reliance across sectors. He announced the government's intent to set up a high-powered demography mission to study and tackle the crisis of demographic changes taking place in the country's border districts. The government had earlier announced its intent to set up such a committee in the interim Budget of 2024-25 in February. The PM asked shopkeepers and traders, a traditional support base of the RSS, to put up boards outside their shops declaring that they sell only Indian products. While the PM's push for 'Swadeshi' and 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' is partly an appeal to prepare the country for the impact of the US tariffs, the saffron party and the RSS are currently involved in intense negotiations over the candidature of the next BJP national president. Relations between the two were strained in the run up to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. During his speech, Modi, who was once an RSS pracharak, showered fulsome praise on the Sangh, hailing its 100 years as a 'very proud and glorious' journey of the 'world's biggest NGO (non-governmental organisation)'. Modi said that the country is not built by governments alone, and neither is it built only by those who hold the reins of state power or those who administer governance. This nation is built by the toil of millions of people from all walks of life. 'Today, with great pride, I wish to mention one such institution,' the PM said. He said the RSS was founded 100 years ago. These years of service to the nation constitute a proud and golden chapter. In a sense, the RSS is the world's largest NGO, with a century-long history of devotion, he said. 'Today, from the ramparts of the Red Fort, I salute all the swayamsevaks who have contributed to this century-long journey of national service, and the nation takes pride in this grand and dedicated journey of the RSS, which will continue to inspire us,' he added. The Congress alleged that the praise for the RSS by PM Modi at the I-Day function was a desperate attempt to appease the Sangh in the run-up to his 75th birthday. 'The PM was tired today. Soon he will retire," Congress' Jairam Ramesh said, slamming Modi's speech as "stale, hypocritical, insipid'. The PM also sought to blunt the Opposition's criticism of the BJP for imposing Hindi. Modi said his government has granted classical language status to Marathi, Assamese, Bengali, Pali and Prakrit. Having faced Opposition's criticism over the Sangh Parivar trying to change the Constitution, or that it was against the interests of the Scheduled Castes (SCs), Scheduled Tribes (STs) and Other Backward Classes (OBCs), the PM sought to respond to these attacks. The PM said the Constitution has been guiding 'us like a lighthouse' for 75 years now. He said the country is celebrating the 125th birth anniversary of Syama Prasad Mookerjee, 'the first great personality of the nation to sacrifice his life for the Constitution'. In a reference to the Indira Gandhi-led Congress government imposing the Emergency in 1975, Modi said the Constitution was strangled, stabbed in the back, and the country was turned into a prison 50 years ago. The PM also alluded to Indira Gandhi's slogan of 'Garibi Hatao' (eradicate poverty). He said people have heard the slogan many times, even from the Red Fort, and the nation grew tired of hearing it over and over again, but only his government's schemes lifted 250 million people out of poverty. Modi said his government will mark the 200th birth anniversary of 19th Century social reformer Mahatma Jyotiba Phule, and his mantra of 'priority to the backward' continues to inspire his dispensation's policies. The PM also spoke of the government's support for STs, women, the youth, and farmers. On infiltration, Modi said it was a well-thought-out conspiracy. He said 'ghuspaithiyas' (intruders) are snatching the livelihood of the youth of the country, targeting the sisters and daughters of my country, and grabbing the lands of innocent tribals. He said the high-powered government mission will complete its work in a set timeframe. Modi had warned about infiltration during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, and had used the term 'ghuspaithiya' in his election campaign. The BJP has been raising the issue of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh marrying tribal girls in West Bengal and Jharkhand. The party has also raised the issue of illegal immigrants in Assam too. On Friday, in their respective I-Day speeches, chief ministers (CMs) of Tripura, Uttarakhand, and Assam also flagged the issue of infiltration. The Opposition has alleged that the BJP is using the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bihar, which will later be implemented in Bengal and Assam, to target such illegal immigrants, especially those from the minority community. Bihar election is scheduled to take place by November while Assam and Bengal will go to polls by May 2026.
Economic Times
5 minutes ago
- Economic Times
What this Noida manager said to employee's leave request has the internet saying, 'every boss must learn this'
'We've got your back', but do we really? Live Events Reactions: from applause to playful sarcasm Why it struck a chord (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel In many Indian workplaces , getting annual leave signed off, especially if it falls neatly around national holidays or a weekend, can feel like threading a needle. So when a professional from Noida shared her recent exchange with her boss, the internet sat up and took notice. Kanika Raina , a digital marketing manager, had asked for a few days off around Independence Day, cleverly linking the public holiday with the weekend to make a long break. But what grabbed people's attention wasn't just her strategic timing, it was her manager's kind and trusting response.'Leave approved. Enjoy your trip to the fullest. Don't take unnecessary stress. We will manage in your absence. Cheers.'That single line, simple, reassuring, and human, has since sparked conversations online about empathy in leadership and the small but powerful ways managers can make their teams feel a thoughtful LinkedIn post, Raina reflected on what the message meant to her.'We often hear 'We've got your back' in offices, but very few teams actually live by it,' she wasn't a grand gesture, she added, but the kind that leaves a lasting impression on an employee's loyalty and her post went live on 11 August, it has collected over 5,000 likes and a mix of reactions from fellow praised the supportive culture: 'It's inspiring to see such a leadership approach,' one user responded with humour, sharing their own tales of leave approval woes:'These are fiction, please wake up as your leave is rejected,' joked one commenter.'Not to brag, but my manager would give me one day's leave if I broke my leg, but only after a written mail with proof,' teased a world of overflowing inboxes and unrelenting deadlines, this exchange reminds us that good leadership is not just about managing tasks, it's about managing leave wasn't simply approved; she was told to truly enjoy it. Her boss's message carried the unspoken assurance: 'We've got it covered, now you go live your life.'It's proof that sometimes the smallest acts of kindness at work are the ones that echo the This article is based on a user-generated social media post. has not independently verified the claims made and does not vouch for their accuracy. The views expressed are solely those of the individual and do not necessarily reflect those of Reader discretion is advised.
