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Time of India
10 minutes ago
- Time of India
Is cautious ‘Elephant-Dragon' tango making a comeback as Donald Trump tightens trade screws against India?
India and China are showing signs of re-engagement. High-level visits and dialogues are being planned. Russia-India-China trilateral dialogue may revive. Despite this, trade tensions persist. The US has increased tariffs on Indian exports. This comes amid pressure on India's ties with Russia. It is unclear if India's strategic position is shifting. All these factors add complexity to the situation. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Signs of cautious re-engagement emerge NSA visit, ministerial engagements underline dialogue effort Defence minister holds firm at SCO meeting Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Direct flights still remain on hold China joins BRICS in terrorism condemnation Trade friction continues beneath surface diplomacy Apple's India expansion hit by Chinese engineer recall US pressure grows amid tariff escalation Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Strategic recalibration or temporary adjustment? Just as the US announced new tariffs, raising it to 50 % on Indian exports, a cautious thaw appears to be taking shape in India-China relations . Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit China for the first time in seven years. National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, External Affiar Minister S Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh 's recent visits to China signal a tentative improvement in bilateral ties, which have remained tense since the 2020 Galwan clashes, even as friction continues on trade, technology, and security activity between India and China has picked up pace in recent weeks. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit China for the first time in seven years. Efforts are also underway to revive the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral dialogue, reflecting an attempt to engage on regional and global month, as per an ET report, India signaled willingness to consider reviving the long-inactive Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral dialogue, following renewed interest from Moscow. Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov had urged the resumption of the RIC format. Speaking at a conference, Lavrov said, "I would like to confirm our genuine interest in the earliest resumption of the work within the format of the troika -- Russia, India, China which was established many years ago on the initiative of Yevgeny Primakov."National Security Advisor Ajit Doval's recent visit to China focused on strategic and border security matters. His trip follows earlier visits by India's foreign and defence ministers, suggesting a coordinated effort to keep diplomatic channels open even as border tensions remain June, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh participated in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Defence Ministers' meeting in Qingdao, China. He refused to back a joint statement that, according to Indian officials, would have weakened India's position on the Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 people. As a result, the SCO did not issue a joint statement due to disagreements over and China are also in talks to resume direct passenger flights, which were suspended in 2020 due to the pandemic and border tensions. However, officials have not provided any timeline for the BRICS summit in Brazil, all member nations, including China, signed a joint statement condemning terrorism — marking a rare instance of alignment on India's security concerns. The statement specifically condemned the Pahalgam attack , where India had earlier faced pushback in other forums. India blamed Pakistan's involvement in the Pahalgam attack, in which 26 tourists were killed by ongoing diplomatic contacts, trade tensions persist. China recently delayed the shipment of a German-made tunnel boring machine intended for India's Ahmedabad-Mumbai bullet train this year, China temporarily halted rare earth exports to India, affecting the electric vehicle manufacturing sector. Some Indian producers warned of possible disruptions in India Cellular and Electronics Association (ICEA) has also alleged that China is restricting the export of capital equipment vital for electronics manufacturing in India, potentially undercutting India's efforts to become an electronics production July, about 300 Chinese engineers working at Foxconn's Indian plants were reportedly ordered to return to China. The move was widely seen as an attempt to delay Apple's supply chain shift to India and slow the production ramp-up of latest US tariff hike on Indian exports comes amid growing friction over India's energy ties with Russia. The White House has defended the 50% tariff as part of its broader strategic response to countries continuing trade with Moscow.A bill pending in the US Senate proposes a 500% tariff on imports from countries that do not align with US policy on Russia, which could further strain India's export-driven sectors. China faces similar scrutiny from backchannel diplomacy, multilateral cooperation, and possible high-level visits point to cautious re-engagement with China, it remains unclear whether India's broader strategic posture is shifting. The Galwan incident, trade disputes, and regional security concerns continue to shape the same time, the rising economic pressure from the US adds a new layer of complexity. Whether this pushes India to hedge more visibly between Washington and Beijing remains an open question, shaped by both external pressures and domestic strategic priorities.
Hindustan Times
10 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
Trump tariffs may hit India GDP growth, put industry at wide disadvantage: Experts
In a major decision by the Trump administration, US President Donald Trump imposed an additional 25 per cent tariff on imports from India, making the total tariff against India 50 per cent. In light of this, economists feel that the move can impact India's GDP growth in EY26 by 0.4 per cent. Trump's tariffs have sparked concerns among Indian trade exporters, as the new tariff will make Indian exports more expensive in the American market.(Reuters) Sonal Badhan, Economics Specialist at Bank of Baroda, told ANI that initially, the expected impact of Trump's tariffs was at 0.2 per cent impact with a 25-26 per cent tariff imposed on India. "There appears to be downside risk to our growth forecast of 6.4-6.6 per cent if lower rates are not negotiated," she said, talking about the consequences of tariffs on growth. Further, she said that depending on the terms of the final trade agreement, the total impact of tariffs on Indian GDP can range between 0.2-0.4 per cent. Sectors including garments, precious stones, pharmaceuticals, auto parts, electronics, and MSMEs are most likely to be affected by it. Also read: Indian stock market opens in red after Donald Trump's 50% tariffs on India Meanwhile, this move has also sparked concerns among the Indian trade exports, as the new tariff will make Indian exports more expensive in the American market. Announced by the Trump administration on Wednesday, this move was taken in response to India continuing its oil imports from Russia. The executive order by Trump stated, "I find that the Government of India is currently directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil.' Based on this, it said that articles from India imported into the customs territory of the US will be subject to an additional 25 per cent duty. Ajay Bagga, a banking and market expert, told ANI that the steep tariff is a major blow to India. "India is now hit with 50 per cent tariffs, but frankly, once it crossed 25 per cent, it didn't matter. It could be 1,000 per cent or 5,000 per cent; there's no trade possible anymore," he said. Bagga also pointed out that with shipments already prepared, the move hits exporters hard. "If USD 1 billion worth of textile exports are halted, it directly impacts around 100,000 workers," he said. Experts also called the additional tariff unnecessary and suggested mutual dialogue to resolve political differences. "I remain hopeful that the Government of India will continue to engage and seek a balanced resolution with the US," Agneshwar Sen, Trade Policy Leader at EY India, said. The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) also expressed concerns at the situation with President, SC Ralhan, saying that, "nearly 55 per cent of our shipments to the US market are directly affected.' He also stated that the imposed tariffs will put Indian exporters at a competitive disadvantage by 30-35 per cent. While the order imposes tariffs on most Indian imports, some items, including certain mineral substances, fuels, industrial chemicals, metallurgical ores, and pharmaceutical precursors, have been excluded.
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First Post
10 minutes ago
- First Post
PM Modi to visit China: Why the trip matters amid Trump's steep tariffs on India
PM Narendra Modi is likely to be in China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) later this month. This will be his first trip to the Asian country in seven years and the first since the 2020 Galwan Valley clash. The Indian leader's expected visit comes amid increased pressure from the US over New Delhi buying Russian oil and the imposition of high tariffs read more Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R) along with China's President Xi Jinping look on during their summit in Mahabalipuram in Tamil Nadu on October 12, 2019. File Photo/PIB / AFP Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) amid a thaw in ties between New Delhi and Beijing. The conclave will be held in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1, with Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin also in attendance. A bilateral meeting between Modi and Xi could also be in the cards. There are also reports that the Indian leader could first visit Japan around August 29 before heading to China. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Here's why PM Modi's China trip matters. PM Modi to visit China PM Modi's likely visit to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit later this month will be his first to the country in seven years. He last travelled to China in June 2018 to attend the SCO summit. PM Modi met Xi on the sidelines of the 16th BRICS Summit at Kazan on October 23, 2024. Xi last travelled to India in October 2019, months before the Chinese incursions in eastern Ladakh. Ahead of PM Modi's visit, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will arrive in India to hold discussions with National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval on the border issue between the two countries on August 18, reported ThePrint. Why PM Modi's China visit is significant This is PM Modi's first trip to China since the military clashes at Galwan in eastern Ladakh along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in 2020, which killed 20 Indian soldiers and several Chinese troops. China officially claimed four fatalities on its side. Both sides have since held many rounds of discussions at political, military and diplomatic levels to resolve the border dispute. Days after PM Modi and Xi met in November 2024 in the Russian city of Kazan, the disengagement process was completed between India and China. Ties between the two countries have since been on the mend. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar attended the SCO meetings in China earlier this year. During talks with Wang Yi last month at the SCO meet, Jaishankar brought up key issues such as trade restrictions, de-escalation along the LAC and underlined the need for an 'uncompromising' stand against 'terrorism, separatism and extremism'. This seems to have paved the way for Modi's China trip later this month, Dr Shaheli Das, an independent foreign policy analyst, wrote for The Interpreter. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The visit comes amid increased pressure on India by United States President Donald Trump for buying Russian oil. The US has imposed 25 per cent tariffs on India and announced an additional 25 per cent tax on Indian imports for New Delhi's trade with Russia. America's growing closeness with Pakistan has also raised alarm bells in India. 'In this context, even a temporary recalibration in ties with China will allow India to hedge against the United States,' as per The Interpreter article. Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi enter a hall for the family photo before a plenary session of the Brics 2024 Summit in Kazan, Russia, 23 October 2024. File Photo/Reuters However, differences between India and China remain. Beijing assisted Pakistan during the latter's conflict with India in May following Operation Sindoor. PM Modi could use the SCO stage to call on the world to take a tough stance on cross-border terrorism. His address is likely to come in the presence of Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Modi's decision to visit China for the SCO summit also showcases the importance New Delhi is attaching to the forum. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD According to Das, India's engagement with SCO displays the 'Modi government's strategy of multi-alignment with the Quad, SCO, Brics, G7 and underlines its intent to practice strategic autonomy while remaining outside bloc politics. Furthermore, it provides India a policy space vis-à-vis China, Russia, Iran and some Central Asian countries to continue dialogue at the highest political level.' How India-China ties have improved recently The government will take a call on PM Modi's visit to China, with an official announcement to be made once the plans are finalised, sources told Indian Express. Tensions between India and China have been on the decline since Modi's meeting with Xi last November. Just ahead of their meet, New Delhi and Beijing had decided to restart patrols in the Depsang area of Eastern Ladakh. Since then, the engagement has increased. China has restarted the Kailash Mansarovar yatra and India resumed visas for Chinese tourists. China is also seeking to restart direct air travel from India for both Indian and Chinese airlines. Despite the recent thaw, the border remains an issue between India and China. Some 50,000-60,000 troops are still deployed along the LAC, on both Indian and Chinese sides. Talks for de-escalation and de-induction of military forces are on. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Whether PM Modi's visit to China will open a new turn in New Delhi's ties to Beijing has to be seen. With inputs from agencies
