ECB's Patsalides Sees Bigger Cut Unwarranted Now: Econostream
'A 50 basis-point cut would only be justified if the risks of recession within the euro area were to intensify, leading to more pronounced cyclical disinflationary pressures,' the Cypriot central-bank chief was cited as saying in an interview published Tuesday. 'However, this is not a highly probable scenario.'
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Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Trump team pushes for ouster of top IEA official
The Trump administration is aiming to replace a top-ranking official at the International Energy Agency, amid a ratcheted-up U.S. pressure campaign on the Paris-based body, multiple energy industry insiders and former U.S. officials with knowledge of the situation told POLITICO's E&E News. The agency's second-in-command, a retired State Department official named Mary Warlick, is the main target for replacement, said the insiders, who were granted anonymity to speak freely. The pressure follows months of public frustrations with the IEA from top Trump administration officials, most notably Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who has vowed to make changes at the body or withdraw U.S. support. Some Republicans say the IEA has discouraged investment in fossil fuels by publishing analyses that show near-term peaks in global demand for oil and gas. 'The product that the IEA produces is not generally accepted by everybody. It's just not,' said Mark Menezes, who served as deputy Energy secretary during Trump's first term. 'And the political context has changed.' The Trump administration is aiming to push changes internally, according to a Republican energy lobbyist with close ties to the Department of Energy. 'They want to get operatives in there, whether they're career or political, who can actually move the needle,' said the lobbyist. 'They're going to get someone they trust and that person is going to fight from the inside out.' He added of the U.S. pressure campaign on the IEA, 'The fact that Wright is out there now talking about it publicly shows that it's elevated.' The White House, meanwhile, is championing fossil fuels as more reliable and often cheaper than wind, solar, and other clean energy sources, despite analysis that suggests renewable power is cheaper and faster to deploy. Now, House lawmakers are threatening to withdraw U.S. funding for the IEA in the fiscal 2026 budget process — after passing a recissions package that cuts funding for United Nations agencies and other international organizations. Wright has criticized the IEA for its projection that oil demand will peak this decade, calling it 'nonsensical' in a Breitbart interview in June. Republicans also bristled at the Biden administration's use of IEA analysis in 2024 to justify a U.S. decision to pause consideration of new liquefied natural gas export permits. In testimony at a Senate hearing last year, David Turk, deputy energy secretary under Biden, cited IEA findings that showed global gas demand on the decline. Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) and then-Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), now retired from Congress, wrote a letter to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol last March saying the IEA has strayed from its mission and become a 'cheerleader' for the energy transition. Birol, for his part, has defended the organization's commitment to energy security while acknowledging that its mission has broadened. Meanwhile, Trump ordered the State Department in February to do a six-month review of U.S. participation in international organizations and treaties and recommend leaving those that don't serve his priorities. IEA officials are pledging to resurrect a 'Current Policy Scenario' in the IEA's World Energy Outlook later this year. In 2020, the IEA abandoned that analysis, which analyzed the global energy picture based on existing national energy policies. U.S. officials have criticized the IEA for replacing the current policy analysis with a 'Stated Policies Scenario,' which multiple Republicans and fossil fuel supporters say is based on policies that aren't being implemented. The critics say it paints a rosier picture of global trends toward lower-carbon energy sources. 'As ever, the forthcoming World Energy Outlook 2025 will contain multiple scenarios reflecting the wide spectrum of possible outcomes that today's market conditions and policies imply,' an IEA spokesperson told E&E News. 'This year's edition will include the Current Policies Scenario, which will illustrate the implications of a continuation of policies and measures currently in place.' Leaving the IEA would deprive the United States of any influence or input at the organization and could leave it isolated. The U.S. helped establish the organization following the 1973 Arab oil embargo to focus on energy security. Today, it publishes influential energy market forecasts and data that guide major investments and government policies. The U.S. is just one of 32 members of the IEA. That means it can't unilaterally set the organization's agenda. But it does have a large amount of influence and has historically been able to work with other member governments to advance the agency, said Jonathan Elkind, former assistant secretary for international affairs at DOE during the Obama administration. 'There are going to be certain elements of policy that the current U.S. administration really disagrees with other member countries on, and the U.S. administration is entirely within its rights to advocate for adjustments in the agenda of the IEA,' Elkind said. 'The U.S. does not have the right to simply insist that everybody will change as a consequence of what the U.S. has done.' The White House did not respond for comment, and a DOE spokesperson did not respond directly to questions posed by E&E. The IEA's second-ranking position has traditionally been filled by an American. In 2021 that post went to Warlick, a former career diplomat who served as ambassador to Serbia from 2010 to 2012 and previously sat on the National Security Council as the senior director for Russia. From 2014 to 2017, Warlick was the State Department's principal deputy assistant secretary at the Bureau of Energy Resources and represented the U.S. on the IEA governing board. Officials in DOE's Office of International Affairs, which is led by acting Assistant Secretary Tommy Joyce, tried to strong-arm the State Department into signing off on pushing Warlick out back in March, according to a former State Department official. At the time, State provided a backstop to Warlick's ouster but since then a broad reorganization of the department has eliminated the Bureau of Energy Resources and most of the officials there who worked closely with the IEA. That could mean DOE would face little resistance if it tries again. In recent IEA meetings, U.S. officials have pushed for the organization to stop publishing data that they argue promotes the shift to clean power over fossil fuels. A former U.S. official who worked closely with the IEA called Warlick a 'hardworking, serious, diligent and capable professional' who does her work in a way that is consistent with guidance from the executive director and with guidance from the member countries. Just how the U.S. would force a replacement isn't entirely clear. Warlick is on a limited contract and while the U.S. is an important member, providing around 14 percent of the organization's budget in recent years, it isn't the only one. Warlick rarely speaks publicly. At an Atlantic Council event in 2022, she said that the clean energy investment caused 'geopolitical fragmentation' in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic and Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. 'Such investment is still well below the level needed to bring emissions down if we are to keep net-zero and sustainable development goals in sight,' Warlick said. 'Massive investment in clean energy is the best guarantee of energy security in the future, and it will also drive down harmful greenhouse gas emissions.' This story also appears in Energywire.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Nicola Sturgeon: 'Alex Salmond confessed to one of the complaints against him'
Nicola Sturgeon has revealed Alex Salmond 'effectively admitted' he was guilty of one of the complaints about his behaviour towards women which led to his split from the SNP. Ms Sturgeon said that her former mentor confessed during a meeting on April 4, 2018, when he showed her the contents of a letter from then-Permanent Secretary to the Scottish Government Leslie Evans, detailing the range of the allegations against him. She said she 'felt sick' at the nature of the complaints, one which particularly shocked her. Salmond insisted the allegation he had admitted to was a 'misunderstanding'. Mr Salmond, who publicly maintained his innocence, would later face trial on 14 charges of sexual assault. He was acquitted on 12 of the charges, while another was found not proven and one was dropped. In a second extract from her forthcoming memoir 'Frankly', published by The Times newspaper, former First Minister Sturgeon said her failure to protect her old boss led to him 'thirsting for revenge', and that he was 'determined' to bring her down her afterwards. She also claims that Salmond would rather have destroyed the SNP than see it succeed without him. Alex Salmond would later stand trial on 14 charges, mostly of sexual assault (Image: NQ) She writes: 'In the dining room of my house in Glasgow on April 4, 2018, with just him and me across a table, Alex showed me a copy of the letter he had received from the Scottish government's permanent secretary, Leslie Evans, informing him of the complaints against him. 'The substance of the complaints, one in particular, shocked me. I felt sick. After appearing to be upset and mortified by the allegations, Alex became cold. 'He effectively admitted the substance of one of the complaints, but claimed that it had been a 'misunderstanding', for which he had apologised at the time.' READ MORE: Nicola Sturgeon: 'I have never considered my sexuality to be binary' Nicola Sturgeon: 'Israel's war in Gaza is genocide' Kevin McKenna: 'A warm welcome by Sturgeon confessions leave me cold' She adds: 'He made it obvious that he considered the whole process to be illegitimate. He would later claim differently, of course, but it was evident that he wanted me to intervene and to stop the investigation in its tracks or divert it into some kind of siding. 'I knew that I shouldn't do that. I didn't realise it then, but this decision made the break-up of one of the most successful partnerships in modern British politics all but inevitable.' Ms Sturgeon has already shared a first extract from her book, where she detailed her belief that her sexuality is not binary, her despair at the probe into the SNP's finances which saw her and then-husband Peter Murrell arrested, and the heartache following her miscarriage in 2010. In this second section, she goes over the behind-the-scenes breakdown of her relationship with Mr Salmond, and her grief at the end of their partnership. Ms Sturgeon discusses the fallout from the botched investigation into the complaints carried out by the Scottish Government, which a judicial review launched by Salmond concluded had been "tainted with apparent bias" because the official who carried out the investigation had had contact with the complainers prior to the probe. Alex Salmond later claimed that a "malicious and concerted" attempt to remove him from public life had occurred, in papers published ahead of his appearance at a Holyrood inquiry into the Scottish government's mishandling of the investigation. Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond were once thought to have had an unbreakable partnership (Image: PA) In her memoir, Ms Sturgeon rejects the conspiracy claim, saying it was impossible. She writes: "In Alex's narrative, he wasn't just a victim any more, he was now a vindicated victim. It was also at this point that his animus towards me was cemented. "He was reportedly furious that I hadn't demanded the resignation of Leslie Evans. Leslie was the head of the civil service that had 'botched' the process. It was not unreasonable to say that the buck stopped with her. "But I knew that, for him, Leslie's resignation was not about accountability. It was about vengeance. He wanted her punished for allowing him to be investigated in the first place. He would then have used her quitting as further 'proof' that he had been a victim all along." She adds: "A conspiracy against Alex would have needed a number of women deciding to concoct false allegations, without any obvious motive for doing so. "It would then have required criminal collusion between them, senior ministers and civil servants, the police and the Crown. "That is what he was alleging. The 'conspiracy' was a fabrication, the invention of a man who wasn't prepared to reflect honestly on his own conduct. This is what I found hardest to come to terms with." She says that the breakdown of their relationship with the man who was her political mentor, and who she served as deputy leader of the party, left her "bereft". However, the ex-SNP leader hits out at Mr Salmond's lack of concern over the damage his actions would have on the SNP and the Scottish Government he once led. She writes: "There was also never the merest hint of concern about the damage he did to the party he previously led. Indeed, it felt to me that he would have rather destroyed the SNP than see it succeed without him. "He impugned the integrity of the institutions at the heart of Scottish democracy — government, police, Crown Office. He was prepared to traumatise, time and again, the women at the centre of it all." Ms Sturgeon says she still remains under Salmond's shadow (Image: NQ) She adds: "For a while I told myself that the bonds between Alex and me would be stronger than his thirst for revenge. Eventually, though, I had to face the fact that he was determined to destroy me. "I was now engaged in mortal political combat with someone I knew to be both ruthless and highly effective. It was a difficult reality to reconcile myself to. So too was losing him as a friend. "I went through what I can only describe as a grieving process. For a time after we stopped speaking I would have conversations with him in my head about politics and the issues of the day. I had occasional, vivid dreams in which we were still on good terms. I would wake up from these feeling utterly bereft." Ms Sturgeon concludes that her relationship with Salmond, who died in 2024, never recovered, and that she still remains under his shadow. She writes: "And now? Before he died, I thought I had reached the point of feeling nothing and that I had come to terms with it, wholly and completely. The emotions I felt on hearing of his death suggested otherwise. "Yes, I have made peace with how things are, but it is an uneasy peace. I know I will never quite escape the shadow he casts, even in death."
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Salmond may have leaked sexual misconduct inquiry details, claims Sturgeon
Alex Salmond may have leaked details about an investigation into allegations of sexual misconduct against him, Nicola Sturgeon has claimed. In an excerpt of her new memoir, Frankly, published by The Times, Ms Sturgeon insisted she was not the one who had leaked the outcome of the Scottish government investigation into her predecessor as first minister to the press. She said: 'It crossed my mind many times that it might have been Alex himself or someone acting on his behalf. 'To those with no experience of the dark arts of media manipulation, I know this will sound preposterous. However, in many ways it would have been classic Alex. 'I had known him to make these kinds of calculations in the past. If there is damaging information certain to emerge about you and there is nothing you can do to stop it, get it out in a way that gives you the best chance of controlling the narrative.' Mr Salmond, who died last year, was investigated by the Scottish government in 2018 after two women made allegations of sexual misconduct against him. The findings of that investigation were leaked to The Daily Record on the day before they were due to be published, prompting Mr Salmond to launch a judicial review of the handling of the inquiry. The Scottish government initially defended the judicial review, before dropping its defence. But a separate police investigation resulted in a criminal trial in 2020 in which Mr Salmond was cleared of all 14 charges, being found not guilty on 12 counts while prosecutors withdrew another charge and one was found not proven. The next year Mr Salmond, who had been Scottish first minister between 2007 and 2014 as leader of the SNP, founded the pro-independence Alba Party. In her memoir, Ms Sturgeon said Mr Salmond had informed her that he was being investigated in April 2018 and initially appeared to be 'upset and mortified' before he 'became cold'. Claiming he 'effectively admitted the substance of one of the complaints, but claimed that it had been a 'misunderstanding'', Ms Sturgeon said it had been 'evident' that Mr Salmond 'wanted me to intervene' to stop or divert the investigation. She added that her refusal to do so turned him against her and 'made the break-up of one of the most successful partnerships in modern British politics all but inevitable'. Ms Sturgeon also accused Mr Salmond of attempting to 'cast himself as the victim' and being 'prepared to traumatise, time and again, the women at the centre of it all'. She said: 'A conspiracy against Alex would have needed a number of women deciding to concoct false allegations, without any obvious motive for doing so. 'It would then have required criminal collusion between them, senior ministers and civil servants, the police and the Crown. 'That is what he was alleging. The 'conspiracy' was a fabrication, the invention of a man who wasn't prepared to reflect honestly on his own conduct.' In other extracts, published on Friday, Ms Sturgeon discussed her arrest in 2023, describing it as 'mental torture', her miscarriage in 2010 and her sexuality. Nicola Sturgeon served as Scottish first minister between 2014 and 2023. Her memoir, Frankly, will be published on Thursday.
