Breaking down the first round of fantasy football drafts based on Yahoo ADP
Fantasy analysts spend most of the pre-draft process in the summer talking about breakouts and sleepers but we tend to never investigate the first-round picks. Yet, if your first-round selection flops, while your season isn't over, it sure does start off behind the eight-ball. As such, I wanted to dedicate some space here to diving into the consensus top picks in Yahoo ADP and discussing any reservations I have with each player.
Yahoo ADP 1.01 - Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase
No hesitations here. Maybe Chase finishes as the WR4 or 5 after you drafted him first overall; that's hardly a meaningful loss. The only way I see a significant flop is if Chase or Joe Burrow gets hurt. You can't predict that.
Yahoo ADP 1.02 - Falcons RB Bijan Robinson
He's my RB1 in drafts this year. He was fantastic last year and has room for growth. The Falcons led the NFL by a wide margin in zone rushing rate (71%) per Fantasy Points Data, but ranked first in success rate on gap runs. The latter tends to produce more explosive plays, and Robinson needs to hit more home runs as the RB1 overall. A slight tweak in Year 2 of Zac Robinson could be just what we ordered.
Yahoo ADP 1.03 - Eagles RB Saquon Barkley
I personally have Robinson ranked ahead of Barkley, but I'm still fine with the latter as a top-three pick. History is against Barkley after he logged an absurd amount of touches in 2024.
I suppose if Barkley slows down or misses time this season, you can't be shocked. It's just difficult to account for that in projections.
Yahoo ADP 1.04 - Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs
He's in danger of the Lions offense regressing and the interior offensive line withering. Not to mention, David Montgomery is not going away. You just need to bet on an explosive player in a still-strong ecosystem who should only be ascending as the lead back. It's a bet I am willing to make.
Yahoo ADP 1.05 - Vikings WR Justin Jefferson
I'm perfectly fine with Justin Jefferson as a Round 1 pick, especially now that he's returned to practice after a hamstring injury. However, I have the next guy ranked ahead of him due to my concerns about Minnesota's passing volume while starting an inexperienced quarterback.
Yahoo ADP 1.06 - Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb
Lamb has a proven, productive quarterback under center. The Cowboys have a questionable defense and running back corps. They could push to lead the NFL in pass attempts and the presence of George Pickens will open up the underneath game for Lamb to pile up efficient catches.
Yahoo ADP 1.07 - 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey
The way this goes wrong for Christian McCaffrey is obvious: Injuries. However, the way it hits is just as clear. McCaffrey totaled 671.7 half PPR points from 2022 to 2023. The second-place finisher was Henry with 518.9. When he plays, CMC laps the field at running back.
Yahoo ADP 1.08 - Ravens RB Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry is back to fight the good fight against Father Time. Even if he declines as an explosive rusher, he's still a great bet for double-digit touchdowns as the lead back on one of the best offenses in football.
Yahoo ADP 1.09 - Texans WR Nico Collins
Elite wide receiver in real life and no worse than the fifth-best player at the position.
Collins has a chance to lead the NFL in targets this season. He's the clear alpha in a room with two rookies and Christian Kirk. Collins has been an outside and on-the-line-of-scrimmage player on over 80% of his snaps in each of the last two seasons. He could be even more efficient if he moves around to other positions in Nick Caley's offense, which comes over from the Rams' tree.
Yahoo ADP 1.10 - Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
Similar to Gibbs, there are some concerns about the environment with Frank Ragnow retiring and Ben Johnson moving on. However, St. Brown is a safe target for Jared Goff and keeps getting better every season. There might be some other wideouts I prefer as first-rounders but I'm not full-fading St. Brown.
Yahoo ADP 1.11 - Giants WR Malik Nabers
Nabers joins guys like Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and A.J. Brown to see at least 30% of their team's targets in a year over the last three seasons. For all of Russell Wilson's flaws, he will deliver more catchable deep targets to Nabers. Let's just hope his current back and foot ailments aren't serious.
Yahoo ADP 1.12 - Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty
There are holes in Jeanty's profile, considering the Raiders' offensive line is a mid-unit at best, they have a poor secondary that will push them into pass-heavy scripts and they just aren't likely to crack the top 20 in points scored. However, we've seen one of the biggest running back busts get by on volume and goal-line work, which Jeanty should get plenty of and make it work in fantasy.
Jeanty will be much better than this. Please collect yourself and let's move on. It's just worth considering the negatives.
Other names you should consider
At present, Drake London is my 10th-ranked player. London and Nabers are right up there with Collins as some of my non-obvious favorites to lead the league in targets.
London saw a whopping 39.8% of the targets in the three games Michael Penix Jr. started last season. Penix unlocks the deep area of the field for London and the receiver's new role in Robinson's offense provides layups over the middle of the field as a slot-heavy and motion target.
Elsewhere, it's simple: If Matthew Stafford is healthy and on the field, Puka Nacua should be a first-round pick and form a dangerous tandem with Davante Adams. As it stands now, with all the oddness surrounding Stafford's back ailment, I can't green-light Nacua as a Round 1 selection.
De'Von Achane is a favorite of the fantasy community. The case goes something like this: In 2023 he got it done on freaky rushing efficiency (7.8 yards per carry) and in 2024 he got it done on high-end receiving usage, as he turned 87 targets into 592 yards, most among running backs.
What if both happen in 2025?
While I think it's also possible neither happens — because I'm skeptical of Miami's run game and overall offensive trajectory — I can't see them going too far away from the receiving usage. Thus, he looks like a great high-floor bet in the early second round.
Brian Thomas Jr. is another high-end wideout that Scott Pianowski has as his 12th overall player. Hard to argue.
Thomas posted an 80.8% success rate vs. press coverage (93rd percentile) in Reception Perception as a rookie. Here are the other Year 1 players to clear the 90th percentile in RP history (2014 to present): CeeDee Lamb in 2020, Michael Thomas in 2016, Tyreek Hill in 2016, Garrett Wilson in 2022, Justin Jefferson in 2020, Ja'Marr Chase in 2021, Ladd McConkey in 2024 and Odell Beckham in 2014.
You want to make a first-round bet on that type of player? You won't get a fight from me.
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