Nation may need fewer new homes than feds' ambitious plan calls for
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The federal government's goal to increase homebuilding to unprecedented levels over the next decade may overshoot the need to ease price pressures in the market, a new report has suggested.
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TD Economics examined the Liberal government's recently unveiled goal to increase annual housing completions to 500,000 by 2035.
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It noted that the federal government's pro-development measures, which include eliminating GST on new homes, reducing development charges and stimulating purpose-built rental construction would indeed boost supply. Yet those measures would likely fall short regarding 'closing the gap' between current annual completions and the government's goal of 500,000 new homes added to the market per year, TD added.
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The current average for completions in Canada is about 245,000 annually, it further noted. At the same time, the report pointed to the Canadian housing affordability metric, which includes average income and mortgage rates, showing homes are by historical measures as unaffordable as they've ever been in the last three decades with the exception of the late 1980s and early 1990s.
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TD stated that a goal of 400,000 completions annually by 2035, while still challenging, would address housing affordability and be 'less of a mountain to scale.'
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At the same time, it noted the construction industry faces productivity challenges, made worse by an expected worker shortfall of about 108,000 workers by 2034. TD added that boosting productivity and workers through investment in training and innovation could improve Canada's chances of building that many homes per year. Among the key innovations to consider, TD cited, is increasing prefabricated homes to reduce construction time and the need for more skilled workers. If that scales up significantly over the next decade, along with increased focus on trades training, the goal of 400,000 homes per year might be achievable, it concluded.
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