Liver cancer cases could double by 2050, but 60% are preventable
A new analysis published by an expert panel on liver cancer has shown that three out of five liver cancer cases worldwide are linked to preventable risk factors.
These include viral hepatitis, alcohol consumption, and an increasingly common but often overlooked threat: obesity-related liver disease.
Without urgent intervention, the number of liver cancer cases is expected to nearly double from 870,000 in 2022 to 1.52 million by 2050, with annual deaths rising from 760,000 to 1.37 million.
But experts argue that millions of lives can be saved with targeted prevention and policy reforms.
Liver cancer "is one of the most challenging cancers to treat, with five-year survival rates ranging from approximately 5 per cent to 30 per cent,' said Jian Zhou, a professor at Fudan University in China and chair of the Lancet commission.
'We risk seeing close to a doubling of cases and deaths from liver cancer over the next quarter of a century without urgent action to reverse this trend,' Zhou said in a statement.
A shifting landscape of risk
Traditionally associated with hepatitis infections and heavy alcohol use, liver cancer is now being increasingly driven by metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), once commonly known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.
MASLD is one of the most common liver conditions in Europe, affecting up to 25 per cent of the adult population, Beatrice Credi of the European Liver Patients' Association (ELPA) told Euronews Health.
'It is crucial to stress that while these risk factors are prevalent, they are often preventable or manageable with appropriate intervention,' she added, emphasising the importance of education as well as robust public health campaigns.
This long-term liver condition is linked to obesity and poor metabolic health. Its more severe form, known as MASH (metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis), is the fastest-growing cause of liver cancer globally.
The Lancet commission projects that liver cancers linked to MASH will increase by 35 per cent, rising from 8 per cent of cases in 2022 to 11 per cent by 2050.
Liver cancers related to alcohol are also expected to rise modestly. Meanwhile, cases caused by hepatitis B and C are predicted to decline slightly thanks to vaccination and improved treatment efforts.
Numbers are particularly concerning in high-income countries, where obesity rates are soaring.
In the United States, MASLD is expected to affect more than half of all adults by 2040, dramatically increasing liver cancer risk.
According to Dr Hashem El-Serag, a professor at Baylor College of Medicine, the profile of the disease is evolving.
'Liver cancer was once thought to occur mainly in patients with viral hepatitis or alcohol-related liver disease,' he said.
But with obesity on the rise, it is becoming an increasingly prominent risk factor, largely due to growing cases of excess liver fat.
The prevention opportunity
Despite the grim projections, the Lancet commission offers a glimmer of hope: the potential of prevention.
If new liver cancer cases are reduced by 2 per cent to 5 per cent each year, it could prevent up to 17 million new cases and save as many as 15 million lives by 2050.
Achieving that would require a multi-pronged global effort, including expanding hepatitis B vaccination and universal adult HBV screening, as well as tackling obesity and alcohol misuse through taxes, warning labels, and better food and beverage policies.
The Lancet commission also suggests integrating liver screening into routine care for people with obesity, diabetes, and heart disease and investing in public education and early detection tools.
'As three in five cases of liver cancer are linked to preventable risk factors ... there is a huge opportunity for countries to target these risk factors, prevent cases of liver cancer, and save lives,' said Stephen Chan, lead author of the study and a professor ar the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
A global call to action
In Europe, recent policy shifts have increasingly emphasised prevention and early detection.
The European Union's Beating Cancer Plan aims to achieve 95 per cent coverage for childhood hepatitis B vaccination and screening of pregnant women by 2030.
It also encourages healthier lifestyle choices and aims to reduce exposure to known risk factors such as alcohol, tobacco, obesity, and diabetes.
A policy recommendation issued by the European Commission in January called for expanded uptake of preventive vaccines (specifically HPV and hepatitis B) and improved monitoring of vaccine coverage rates.
But in the fight against liver cancer, the EU must also confront a less visible but equally powerful force: the commercial determinants of health, said ELPA's Beatrice Credi.
'Industries that profit from the sale of alcohol, unhealthy foods, and tobacco play a significant role in driving some of the liver cancer risk factors. Our policymakers must prioritise public health,' she told Euronews Health.
She noted, however, that policies aimed at regulating these commercial influences remain weak or inconsistently enforced across the EU, with the only exception of taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages.
Prevention alone is not enough.
As more people are now living with liver cancer than ever before, the Lancet commission stressed the urgent need for improved care, earlier diagnosis, and better support for patients—especially in regions such as Africa and Asia, where the disease burden is highest and health care resources are limited.
But Valérie Paradis, a professor at Beaujon Hospital in France, suggested effective prevention could also help ease that burden.
'Compared with other cancers, liver cancer is very hard to treat but has more distinct risk factors, which help define specific prevention strategies,' Paradis said.
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Euronews
5 days ago
- Euronews
Liver cancer cases could double by 2050, but 60% are preventable
Liver cancer is on the rise, but experts say it doesn't have to be this way. A new analysis published by an expert panel on liver cancer has shown that three out of five liver cancer cases worldwide are linked to preventable risk factors. These include viral hepatitis, alcohol consumption, and an increasingly common but often overlooked threat: obesity-related liver disease. Without urgent intervention, the number of liver cancer cases is expected to nearly double from 870,000 in 2022 to 1.52 million by 2050, with annual deaths rising from 760,000 to 1.37 million. But experts argue that millions of lives can be saved with targeted prevention and policy reforms. Liver cancer "is one of the most challenging cancers to treat, with five-year survival rates ranging from approximately 5 per cent to 30 per cent,' said Jian Zhou, a professor at Fudan University in China and chair of the Lancet commission. 'We risk seeing close to a doubling of cases and deaths from liver cancer over the next quarter of a century without urgent action to reverse this trend,' Zhou said in a statement. A shifting landscape of risk Traditionally associated with hepatitis infections and heavy alcohol use, liver cancer is now being increasingly driven by metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), once commonly known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. MASLD is one of the most common liver conditions in Europe, affecting up to 25 per cent of the adult population, Beatrice Credi of the European Liver Patients' Association (ELPA) told Euronews Health. 'It is crucial to stress that while these risk factors are prevalent, they are often preventable or manageable with appropriate intervention,' she added, emphasising the importance of education as well as robust public health campaigns. This long-term liver condition is linked to obesity and poor metabolic health. Its more severe form, known as MASH (metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis), is the fastest-growing cause of liver cancer globally. The Lancet commission projects that liver cancers linked to MASH will increase by 35 per cent, rising from 8 per cent of cases in 2022 to 11 per cent by 2050. Liver cancers related to alcohol are also expected to rise modestly. Meanwhile, cases caused by hepatitis B and C are predicted to decline slightly thanks to vaccination and improved treatment efforts. Numbers are particularly concerning in high-income countries, where obesity rates are soaring. In the United States, MASLD is expected to affect more than half of all adults by 2040, dramatically increasing liver cancer risk. According to Dr Hashem El-Serag, a professor at Baylor College of Medicine, the profile of the disease is evolving. 'Liver cancer was once thought to occur mainly in patients with viral hepatitis or alcohol-related liver disease,' he said. But with obesity on the rise, it is becoming an increasingly prominent risk factor, largely due to growing cases of excess liver fat. The prevention opportunity Despite the grim projections, the Lancet commission offers a glimmer of hope: the potential of prevention. If new liver cancer cases are reduced by 2 per cent to 5 per cent each year, it could prevent up to 17 million new cases and save as many as 15 million lives by 2050. Achieving that would require a multi-pronged global effort, including expanding hepatitis B vaccination and universal adult HBV screening, as well as tackling obesity and alcohol misuse through taxes, warning labels, and better food and beverage policies. The Lancet commission also suggests integrating liver screening into routine care for people with obesity, diabetes, and heart disease and investing in public education and early detection tools. 'As three in five cases of liver cancer are linked to preventable risk factors ... there is a huge opportunity for countries to target these risk factors, prevent cases of liver cancer, and save lives,' said Stephen Chan, lead author of the study and a professor ar the Chinese University of Hong Kong. A global call to action In Europe, recent policy shifts have increasingly emphasised prevention and early detection. The European Union's Beating Cancer Plan aims to achieve 95 per cent coverage for childhood hepatitis B vaccination and screening of pregnant women by 2030. It also encourages healthier lifestyle choices and aims to reduce exposure to known risk factors such as alcohol, tobacco, obesity, and diabetes. A policy recommendation issued by the European Commission in January called for expanded uptake of preventive vaccines (specifically HPV and hepatitis B) and improved monitoring of vaccine coverage rates. But in the fight against liver cancer, the EU must also confront a less visible but equally powerful force: the commercial determinants of health, said ELPA's Beatrice Credi. 'Industries that profit from the sale of alcohol, unhealthy foods, and tobacco play a significant role in driving some of the liver cancer risk factors. Our policymakers must prioritise public health,' she told Euronews Health. She noted, however, that policies aimed at regulating these commercial influences remain weak or inconsistently enforced across the EU, with the only exception of taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages. Prevention alone is not enough. As more people are now living with liver cancer than ever before, the Lancet commission stressed the urgent need for improved care, earlier diagnosis, and better support for patients—especially in regions such as Africa and Asia, where the disease burden is highest and health care resources are limited. But Valérie Paradis, a professor at Beaujon Hospital in France, suggested effective prevention could also help ease that burden. 'Compared with other cancers, liver cancer is very hard to treat but has more distinct risk factors, which help define specific prevention strategies,' Paradis said.
France 24
5 days ago
- France 24
Liver cancer cases to nearly double worldwide by 2050, says study
The number of people with liver cancer will nearly double worldwide by 2050 unless more is done to address preventable causes such as obesity, alcohol consumption and hepatitis, a study warned Tuesday. New cases of liver cancer -- the sixth most common form of the disease -- will rise to 1.52 million a year from 870,000 if current trends continue, according to data from the Global Cancer Observatory published in the Lancet medical journal. It is also the third deadliest of all cancers, with the study predicting it would take 1.37 million lives by the middle of the century. However three out of five cases of liver cancer could be prevented, the international team of experts said. The risk factors are drinking alcohol, viral hepatitis and a build-up of fat in the liver linked to obesity called MASLD, which was previously known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. The viruses that cause hepatitis B and C are expected to remain the leading causes of liver cancer in 2050, according to the study, published on World Hepatitis Day. Vaccination at birth is the best way to prevent hepatitis B, but vaccine coverage remains low in poorer countries including in sub-Saharan Africa, the study said. Unless vaccination rates are increased, hepatitis B is expected to kill 17 million people between 2015 and 2030, it added. Alcohol consumption is estimated to cause more than 21 percent of all cases of liver cancer by 2050, up more than two percentage points from 2022. Cancer due to obesity-linked fat in livers will rise to 11 percent, also up more than two percentage points, the researchers calculated. The large-scale study, which reviewed the available evidence on the subject, underscored "the urgent need for global action" on liver cancer, the authors said. The experts called for more public awareness about the preventable danger of liver cancer, particularly by warning people with obesity or diabetes about fatty-liver disease in the United States, Europe and Asia.
France 24
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Walking 7,000 steps a day a huge boost to health: research
The most widely promoted target for people tracking their number of steps is 10,000 -- but that figure reportedly originally came from a 1960s marketing campaign for a Japanese pedometer. To find a more scientific target, an international team of researchers sifted through 57 previous studies that covered 160,000 people. The results published in the Lancet Public Health journal found that walking 7,000 steps a day nearly halved people's risk of early death from all causes, compared to 2,000 steps. The study also looked into health problems not previously covered by research into step counts. Walking 7,000 steps a day was linked to people's risk of dementia falling by 38 percent, depression dropping 22 percent and diabetes decreasing 14 percent. It was also associated with lower rates of cancer and falls, though the researchers warned this was based on less evidence. "You don't need to hit 10,000 steps a day to get major health benefits," Paddy Dempsey, a study co-author and medical researcher at Cambridge University, told AFP. "The biggest gains happen before 7,000 steps, and then benefits tend to level off," he said. While people's speeds vary widely, 7,000 steps adds up to roughly an hour of walking throughout the day. Dempsey emphasised that people already managing 10,000 or more steps should keep it up. But he had a message for people who might find 7,000 steps daunting: "don't be discouraged". "If you're only getting 2,000–3,000 steps a day, aim to add an extra 1,000 steps. That's just 10–15 minutes of light walking spread across the day," he said. Andrew Scott, a researcher at the University of Portsmouth not involved in the study, said that "it demonstrates that overall more is always better". "People should not focus too much on the numbers, particularly on days where activity is limited," he added. The World Health Organization recommends at least 150 minutes of moderate to intense physical activity a week. Nearly a third of people worldwide do not reach this target, according to the WHO.
