Jinnah foresaw a grim future for Pakistan

Express Tribune

12 hours ago

The writer is a chemical engineer with interest in Society, Politics & Economy. Contact him at: [e-mail]
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Pakistan, born from majority-Hindu apathy, now suffers majority-Muslim ethnic apathy, a tragic comedy. Durkheim (1858), founder of modern sociology, noted mechanical solidarity creates superficial unity but deeper apathy, explaining our socio-political chaos and economic decline.
Recent conflict with India showed tactical wins using Chinese tech, but it didn't end hostilities, and more conflicts to follow with pauses. It is, however, troubling to see apathy in Balochistan, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, and parts of Sindh regarding military victory signifying anemic national cohesion.
This demands a revisit to Jinnah's original goal for Pakistan: save some, not all, Muslims in India. He united willing Mohajirs and unwilling Bengal, Punjab, Sindh, NWFP and Balochistan under his vision of a modern democratic state.
Sadly, his Pakistan was quickly captured and system was subverted for some while masses and smaller provinces suffered. Mohajirs reduced to "second class citizens" and their political leadership twisted into clown for everyone's amusement. Ironic for descendants of those who fought British Raj (1857) and made Pakistan possible (1947). Still! Redemption lies restoring integrity and moral values not going after material gains, Jinnah's hallmark.
Jinnah knew existential threat posed by PakRaj (British-loyalist feudal-military-bureaucratic trio) to unity among different groups and his founding principle — a country for people. Despite poor health, he acted fast:
To fight feudalism, Jinnah chose non-feudal leaders in all provinces. Just months before his death, he disbanded landlord system in Sindh (blocked by court) and pushed land reforms in Punjab (sabotaged by legislature).
Jinnah's land reforms died with him. West Pakistan stayed feudal, but East Pakistan implemented land reforms by 1950. Ayub and Bhutto's half-measures failed and no one dare talk about land reform in Pakistan since 1977.
Jinnah kept military under civilian rule, fired General Messervy for ignoring him on Kashmir and placed military policy under cabinet control. His death allowed military to regain influence with feudals and bureaucrats — something Jinnah had forbidden.
His bureaucratic reforms replaced feudal-backed recruits with merit-based ones. An exam under his watch in February 1948 had only 12% feudal recruits. After his death, English test barriers and vague interviews increased feudal share to 65% by 1965.
Jinnah expected a grim future for Pakistan without reforms, and he was right. PakRaj initiated country's capture via malafide actions of Ghulam Muhammad and Iskander Mirza - both ex-ICS officers who carried contempt for politicians and democratic process. Using government-dismissal powers, they destroyed democracy between 1948 and 1958. Later, same provision serves a hanging sword over successive governments until last used by Musharraf in 2007.
Mirza's tyranny led to martial law as he remained in power, but immediately replaced by Ayub's military dictatorship under judicial cover provided by Justice Munir — mother of all tragedies which State of Pakistan has yet to see, as its last judicial pillar fell. With that ended checks and balances system letting PakRaj do as it pleases.
Institutional failures followed: Ayub's failed idea of basic democracies, Bangladesh's creation in 1971, and cycles of dictatorship and managed democracy — Bhutto, Zia, Benazir, Musharraf, Sharifs, Imran, PDM versions. Each rule made institutional decay worse.
Why? PakRaj response has been always in "National Interest" (framed as required); over time they became all powerful entity beyond imagination, meanwhile joined by opportunistic politicians, industrialists, businesses tycoons and enablers.
So, they control state and operate unaccountably. Period. It would be unfair not to see their performance accumulated over time, which can be evaluated under Scripture's guidance "By their fruits ye shall know them" (Matthew 7:16). The harvest has been bitter.
Governance has collapsed: Pakistan ranks poorly globally — all in worst tiers: Corruption 135, Rule of law 129, Political change 100, Governance 122, among others.
Economy is equally damning: FY25 shows growth is just 2.68% (target 3.6%) creating more poverty, which is made worse by an increasing population growing at 2.7% annually. Public debt stands at Rs76.01 trillion (74.60% of GDP) with servicing at Rs9.775 trillion (51% of federal spending). Yet politicians approve their own pay rises while Cabinet expanded — a further arrogant act under misrule.
Tax shortfall and mismanagement: Feudal escape taxes. SOE losses Rs851 billion, power sector losses Rs660 billion, elitist IPPs-related circular debt Rs2.5 trillion, UGF Rs190 billion, corruption costs 1.4% of GDP and an unknown amount of tax evasion. Pakistan borrows new money to service old debts — absolutely hostage to IMF and the US.
Human cost is staggering: About 44.7% live below Rs2,324/day ($4.20/day) and 16.5% live in absolute poverty below Rs840/day ($3.0/day); actual figures will be higher given old database (2018-19).
Even with military victory against India, Pakistan is losing war for human dignity which India is winning — only 23.89% of Indians live below $4.20/day, and just 5.3% live in absolute poverty below $3.0/day (CES 2022/23 data).
Future? More of same suffering: development spending stays around 0.9% of GDP, health under 0.9%, education below 0.8% — warranting shameful "education emergency".
Despite numerous national and international studies on countries' ailments and state commissions since 1949, PakRaj has set aside most recommendations and arrogantly ignored decades of real failures as country continues to decline. C'est la vie!
Surely, PakRaj will not give up its power and privileges, nor can we expect them to; I along with them and masses await the coming reckoning, as John Elia said:
Hashar main bataon ga tujhy
Jo hashar tu nay kiya hay mera
What lies before us is a simple binary decision.
Do nothing — Accept PakRaj's fiascos disguised as "success" in governance, economy and battlefield wins at mercy of US/China. Or,
Do what must be done — Finish Jinnah's structural reforms. Empower educated middle class, entrepreneurs and professionals. Adapt 21st-century realities — digital governance, global economic integration and climate challenges that didn't exist in 1947.
History has proved Jinnah was right. He warned: without change we will remain exposed — fragile, divided and easily ruled. The reality always begs core question — whether Pakistan will heed it before it's too late.