Twins takeaways: Déjà vu for Bailey Ober, prospect watching in St. Paul, franchise values

New York Times

31-03-2025

Regardless of next season's schedule, the Minnesota Twins should probably just avoid having Bailey Ober make his first 2026 start in Missouri.
Last season, Ober started the Twins' third game and allowed eight runs in 1 1/3 innings against the Royals in Kansas City.
This season, Ober started the Twins' third game and allowed eight runs in 2 2/3 innings Sunday against the Cardinals in St. Louis.
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But whereas last year's Game 3 clunker from Ober stopped the Twins from sweeping the Royals, this year's version led to a three-game sweep by the Cardinals. With the 9-2 loss, the Twins have started a season 0-3 for the first time since 2016, when they opened 0-9 en route to a 59-103 record.
'The thing about a start like this is there's not one thing that one person is going to do,' manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters in St. Louis. 'We've got to go out there and play quality baseball as a team. We're going to do that. I'm going to do my part. There's not one thing that's going to turn it around, and you're only able to play one game a day.'
The Twins do have a prime opportunity to bounce back beginning Monday with a three-game series in Chicago versus the lowly White Sox, against whom they went 12-1 last season. But the Cardinals aren't likely to be a powerhouse team, and the Twins looked bad throughout the series, on and off the field.
Great Scott! 💣 pic.twitter.com/XdsJthaCoQ
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) March 30, 2025
As for Ober, the Twins must hope the rest of his season continues to mirror 2024, when he recovered from the horrible first outing to post a 3.60 ERA with 190 strikeouts in 177 1/3 innings over his final 30 starts.
There's no reason he can't do it again. However, his diminished velocity and uncharacteristically poor command Sunday could be worrisome after Ober struggled with similar issues throughout spring training.
Ober's fastball averaged 91.7 mph last year, but it fell to 89.9 mph during spring training and was only slightly better Sunday at 90.3 mph. Normally a control artist, he threw 33 balls in 77 pitches, got only four whiffs on 28 swings, and issued three walks, one fewer than his high mark last season.
In camp, Ober pointed to his mechanics being out of whack, but the right-hander felt his mechanics were fine Sunday and instead revealed after the game that he was pitching despite having an illness that also kept infielder Edouard Julien out of action for the series.
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'I did the best I could,' Ober said. 'I got an IV (on Saturday). I was pretty much bedridden all day, on the off day (Friday), but did fine. After the first inning, I got a little tired just because of the stuff I was battling and a quick turnaround after throwing 28 pitches.'
Baldelli noted the coaching staff discussed potentially skipping or pushing back Ober's start, but 'it's not something that we were close to doing.'
'He said he was good to go, but clearly, I think it had some effect,' Baldelli said. 'The way he threw the ball, it wasn't like him. Command is normally something he has and he's able to pitch with all of his different pitches, add and subtract, and put it where he wants. He wasn't really able to find that.'
Ober's next scheduled start is Saturday against the Houston Astros at Target Field, giving him extra time to get healthy.
Countless things went wrong for the Twins at the plate, on the mound, in the field and on the airwaves while being swept by the Cardinals, bringing back painful memories of last year's collapse, but Ober not looking like himself for several weeks might be the biggest cause for concern.
Triple-A St. Paul's season started with an 11-0 victory Friday, but the Saints' scheduled Saturday and Sunday games were rained out.
St. Paul's roster is overflowing with top prospects and recently graduated former top prospects, along with the typical assortment of veteran minor leaguers looking to play their way back to the big leagues.
The hitting headliners are Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall, who were No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, on my Twins top 40 prospects list in January, and each ranks as a consensus top-50 prospect across MLB.
Emmanuel Rodriguez 2 run double hit at 113.6 MPH 🤯 to drive in the first @StPaulSaints runs of the season
He is 2-2#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/AvSMPVkb6z
— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) March 29, 2025
Rodriguez went 3-for-4 with a double and a walk on Opening Day, but also jammed his left thumb. It's not believed to be a serious injury, and crucially, it was Rodriguez's right thumb that bothered him throughout much of last season before requiring surgery in September.
Keaschall, who is coming back from elbow surgery last August, impressed with his bat during spring training while being limited to designated hitter duties. He's been cleared to resume playing second base, with outfield action likely to follow fairly soon.
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Rodriguez and Keaschall are among the minor leagues' best prospect duo teammates and both figure to be key pieces of the Twins' long-term lineup, perhaps beginning as soon as this summer. But the Saints' rotation is even more loaded with top prospects.
Led by David Festa, who shed his prospect status last year by throwing 64 1/3 innings for the Twins in a solid rookie season, the Saints' starting group also features Zebby Matthews (No. 4 in my top 40), Andrew Morris (No. 5), Marco Raya (No. 8), Cory Lewis (No. 10) and Travis Adams (No. 25).
Festa had the Opening Day assignment for the Saints and quickly got back on track following a poor spring training by throwing five shutout innings on just 58 pitches, striking out four and walking none. He and Matthews are basically just hanging out in St. Paul until the Twins need them again.
In all, St. Paul's season-opening roster has 13 of the Twins' top 40 prospects, including four of the top five (everyone except top-ranked Walker Jenkins) and six of the top 10. And that's in addition to Festa and Austin Martin, who lost their prospect eligibility last season by playing regularly for the Twins.
Regardless of whether the Twins turn things around after their 0-3 start, CHS Field is going to be an excellent place for prospect watching this season. Although, if the Twins don't turn things around, some of the Saints' top prospects may not be long for St. Paul.
Forbes released its annual report about the finances of MLB teams, which is particularly relevant for the Twins with the team up for sale.
Forbes estimates the Twins have a valuation of $1.5 billion. If that number seems familiar, it's because The Athletic reported last week that the Pohlad family turned down an offer in the $1.5 billion range and are believed to be seeking at least $1.7 billion despite the team carrying $425 million of debt.
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Carl Pohlad bought the Twins for $44 million in 1984.
According to Forbes, the Twins had an estimated $324 million of revenue in 2024, down slightly from their 2023 revenue of $342 million. And that makes sense, since the 2023 Twins were superior on and off the field, selling 22,508 more regular-season tickets and hosting four playoff games at Target Field.
Forbes calculates the Twins' total player-related expenses at $182 million in 2024 and $187 million in 2023, estimating the team had profitable operating incomes of $5 million in 2024 and $19 million in 2023. And that's in addition to the franchise's valuation increasing by $110 million in those two years.
Based on Forbes' numbers, at least, it's hard to see how the Twins accrued $425 million of debt unless it occurred entirely before the past two seasons and/or wasn't solely for baseball reasons. Whatever the case, Forbes' data suggests the Pohlads turned down a market-rate offer to buy the team.
(Photo of Bailey Ober: Dilip Vishwanat / Getty Images)