Eyes on the southwest Atlantic for early-June tropical development
Soon after the likely formation of the first tropical storm in the eastern Pacific basin, there will be some opportunities for tropical development in the Atlantic, perhaps close to Florida, Central America and Mexico, during the first couple of weeks of June, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
June 1 marks the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. Early-season tropical storm formation often has many obstacles, including harsh winds (strong wind shear), dry air and cool water. As the season progresses, moist air, warmer waters and lessening wind shear make it easier for tropical storms to form.
AccuWeather meteorologists look for atmospheric patterns that can help jump-start tropical development early in the season, when conditions are typically less favorable.
The Central America gyre is a large, slowly spinning area of low pressure that usually forms over Central America and can sometimes give birth to early-season storms. This failed to form in early May, which is why no tropical storms formed during that time.
Another setup that can aid early-season development is a lingering front in the Gulf, the Caribbean, or the southwest Atlantic. When a front stalls, it can create enough moisture and upward motion in the atmosphere to gradually support tropical formation.
"We will be watching a zone stretching from Florida waters to the Bahamas and Cuba during the first few days of June," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.
This area will produce a broad region of showers and thunderstorms, which may help ease dry conditions over the Florida Peninsula. Any tropical development in this zone during the first few days of June is unlikely, but that could change if some slight spin develops in the region.
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Just a few days later, over the western and central Caribbean, the combination of that lingering front, congregating moisture, and perhaps a tropical wave could assist in stirring up some tropical trouble, Pydnowski explained. A tropical wave is a ripple of low pressure that often contains showers and thunderstorms and travels from east to west across the tropical Atlantic and Pacific.
Pydnowski noted that any potential development is still about 10 days out, and conditions that support tropical organization may not come together.
Beyond a couple of tropical waves of low pressure moving westward, much of the tropical Atlantic appeared to be mostly free of cloud cover Tuesday.
The areas near Central America, the Caribbean Islands, and the southeastern part of North America are the favored spots for early-season tropical development.
AccuWeather's team of long-range forecasters, including lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva, is expecting 13-18 named storms this season, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes. Of these, three to six are forecast to have a direct impact on the United States.
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