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Quantifying Trumpcare

Quantifying Trumpcare

Economist17-07-2025
JUST READING the Big Beautiful Bill, with its 330 pages of provisions, is an intimidating undertaking. Working out its consequences is yet more challenging. Nevertheless, researchers at the University of Pennsylvania and the Yale School of Public Health tried to calculate how many more people would die as a result of the law. Analysing the House of Representatives' version of the bill, they came to 42,500 annually by 2034. That is more people than currently die of breast cancer. Adding in the impact of the end of the enhanced subsidies for people buying their own insurance, they reckoned there would be over 51,000 extra deaths a year. The White House has pushed back on the claims of deaths, calling them 'egregious' and 'deranged'.
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US House budget threatens over 600 public defender jobs, judiciary warns
US House budget threatens over 600 public defender jobs, judiciary warns

Reuters

timea day ago

  • Reuters

US House budget threatens over 600 public defender jobs, judiciary warns

July 30 (Reuters) - Federal public defenders would be forced to eliminate over 600 positions or defer paying court-appointed criminal defense attorneys for over two months under a proposed Republican-backed budget plan in the U.S. House of Representatives, a top U.S. judiciary official warned in an internal memo. Judge Robert Conrad, the director of the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, included those projections in a July 25 memo, opens new tab addressed to members of the judiciary after a House appropriations panel last week advanced an $8.9 billion proposed budget for the judiciary for the next fiscal year. The proposed spending bill advanced by the U.S. House Appropriations Committee's financial services panel increases spending on the judiciary overall by 3.5% but falls "substantially below" what the courts requested, Conrad said. Among the parts of the judicial branch that would suffer are federal public defenders, he said. The bill provides $1.57 billion in funding for the Defender Services program, which provides attorneys to criminal defendants who cannot afford their own lawyers. Criminal defendants have a constitutional right to be provided attorneys under the U.S. Supreme Court's landmark 1963 ruling Gideon v. Wainwright. Conrad said that while the $1.57 billion is up 8.2% from the 2025 fiscal year, it is $196 million below what the judiciary requested, which would force its Defender Services program to "downsize" by over 600 positions, or potentially more if staff cuts occur after the October 1 fiscal year begins. "Reductions of this magnitude would inhibit the Defender Services program from meeting its constitutionally mandated mission," Conrad wrote. He said the other possibility is that payments to court-appointed private attorneys who agree to serve on a court's Criminal Justice Act (CJA) panel will be deferred for 77 days, starting around June 11, 2026, the longest such pause in the history of the program. Those payments are already on hold, as the judiciary this month announced that the program that pays CJA attorneys had run out of money, resulting in a three-month delay. The judiciary has requested $116 million in supplemental funding to address what it calls a "funding crisis." The full House Appropriations Committee will not consider the bill until at least September. Senate appropriators have yet to release their own version of the bill. Details of the memo were first reported by Bloomberg Law. The Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump says Epstein 'stole' young women from his Mar-a-Lago spa
Trump says Epstein 'stole' young women from his Mar-a-Lago spa

BBC News

time2 days ago

  • BBC News

Trump says Epstein 'stole' young women from his Mar-a-Lago spa

US President Donald Trump has said he fell out with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein after he "stole" young women who worked at his Mar-a-Lago beach club president made the remarks as he returned from Scotland, where he faced more questions over his relationship with the disgraced financier."He took people, I say 'don't do it anymore', you know they work for me... beyond that, he took some others," Trump said. "Once he did that, that was the end of him."It comes as the legal team for Epstein's conspirator, Ghislaine Maxwell, indicated she would only testify before Congress on what she knows about the case if she is granted strict legal protections. Amid public pressure for more disclosures in the Epstein case, a House of Representatives committee subpoenaed Maxwell, who is serving a 20-year prison sentence, to testify before lawmakers on 11 a letter obtained by the BBC's US partner CBS, her legal team said she would only do so if granted immunity or pardoned, and provided with questions in about Trump's relationship with Epstein followed him on to Air Force One on Tuesday, where he was asked to expand on comments he made the previous day in Scotland where he said: "He [Epstein] stole people that worked for me."Asked if the employees were young women, Trump responded: "the answer is yes", and added that they were hired "out of the spa" he said that one of them was Virginia Giuffre, who had said she began working at Mar-a-Lago in the summer of 2000, when she was to court documents unsealed in 2019, Giuffre alleged she was recruited by Ghislaine Maxwell to give massages to Epstein while she was working at the accused Prince Andrew and Epstein of sexual abuse, allegations they both denied. She died by suicide earlier this year in the Epstein case looms large in MAGA worldVirginia Giuffre's death leaves unanswered questionsTrump remark's aboard Air Force One are his latest on how he and Epstein's relationship week, the White House said Trump kicked Epstein out of his Mar-a-Lago club "for being a creep".Pressed on whether there was a discrepancy between the reasons, Trump said: "You know, it's sort of a little bit of the same thing." Trump and Epstein fell out in the early 2000s, after having been friends for more than a also comes amid mounting pressure on Trump officials to release files related to Epstein and growing frustration with the administration's handling of the issue, including its failure to deliver a rumoured "client list". Trump had promised to release such files about the well-connected sex offender while campaigning for the presidency last year. But in a memo earlier this month, the justice department and FBI said there was no "incriminating" week, the Wall Street Journal reported that Attorney General Pam Bondi informed Trump during a May briefing that his name was among hundreds that appeared in justice department documents related to Epstein. Being named in such files is no confirmation of two were spotted together at parties throughout their friendship. At least two women who had attended those events later came forward with sexual assault allegations against Trump. One of them was Jill Harth, who accused Trump in a 1997 lawsuit of forcibly kissing her and fondling her at a Mar-a-Lago event for young women where Epstein was also in attendance, the New York Times reported. Trump denied the allegations and the lawsuit was woman, model Stacey Williams, accused Trump of groping her after she was brought to Trump Tower in Manhattan by Epstein to greet Trump. The president has also denied her week, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump had written a "bawdy" letter to Epstein in 2003 for his birthday. It reportedly contained a joking reference that "enigmas never age" and allegedly ended with the words: "A pal is a wonderful thing. Happy Birthday - and may every day be another wonderful secret."Trump has dismissed the article as "fake" and has sued the publication for defamation. Trump and Epstein reportedly fell out in 2004 over a sought-after Palm Beach oceanfront property that had fallen into foreclosure. Trump ultimately outbid Epstein for the 2006, Epstein was indicted in Florida for solicitation of prostitution and later pleaded guilty to the charges. He was then arrested in 2019 over federal charges of sex trafficking, and died by suicide in prison before his trial. Maxwell is serving a 20-year prison sentence after she was found guilty of helping Epstein sexually exploit and abuse young girls over the course of a was subpoenaed by House Oversight chairman James Comer last week to testify before Congress. Her lawyers made an appeal for clemency from President Trump, writing that if she "were to receive clemency, she would be willing - and eager - to testify openly and honestly". Earlier on Tuesday, a spokesperson for Comer said the Kentucky congressman "will not consider granting congressional immunity for her testimony".Comer told CNN last week that there were not "many Republicans that want to give immunity to someone that may have been sex trafficking children".Asked whether he would give clemency to Maxwell, Trump told reporters last week that doing so was within his powers, but that he had "not thought" about it.

How Trump ‘eliminated' inheritance tax for farmers – while Starmer ramped it up
How Trump ‘eliminated' inheritance tax for farmers – while Starmer ramped it up

Telegraph

time2 days ago

  • Telegraph

How Trump ‘eliminated' inheritance tax for farmers – while Starmer ramped it up

When Donald Trump generously interrupted his golfing holiday for a meeting with Sir Keir Starmer earlier this week, he did not shy away from sharing a few home truths with the Prime Minister. In between calling Sadiq Khan 'nasty', telling Sir Keir to cut taxes to beat Nigel Farage and expressing his view that 'wind [power] is a disaster', the American president raised the spectre of inheritance taxes, on farmland in particular. While Trump has, in effect, eliminated inheritance tax (IHT) for all but the most expensive estates in the US, Sir Keir has gone the other way, moving to remove relief on IHT for agricultural land. During the meeting at Turnberry, Trump's golf course south-west of Glasgow, the president stopped short of explicitly criticising Sir Keir's policies, but he noted that farmers in the US had been driven to suicide by the previous tax regime and that he had taken steps to cut inheritance tax in both of his presidencies. 'We ended the estate tax,' he said, citing a federal tax which is levied on the transfer of an estate of a person who has died. 'There's no estate tax on farmers, so when a parent leaves their farm – because a lot of these farms, they don't make a lot of money, but it's a way of life and they love that way of life.' Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act 2017 during his first term raised the individual exemption for estate tax – not just on farms – to $11m (£8.2m), and double that for a married couple, both linked to inflation. (Beyond the threshold, assets are taxed at a rate that rises to 40 per cent.) Speaking in North Dakota in 2017, Trump said he would 'protect small businesses and family farmers' by ending the estate tax, which was a 'tremendous burden' for the family farmer. Critics argued it was a gift to the super rich, which would scarcely benefit the people Trump claimed to be helping. 'The estate tax tends to draw out intense feelings, even as it's a relatively small tax provision,' says Alan Cole, a senior economist at the Tax Foundation, a non-partisan think tank based in Washington, DC. 'Surprisingly, a lot of people feel it's unfair. They know they are not going to pay it, but they think once you've paid income tax on something, the government shouldn't be involved. Then some people think inheritance is unfair.' Trump's policy has meant that more than 99 per cent of estates escape inheritance tax. President Joe Biden had repeatedly urged Congress to restore the previous limit of $3.5m (£2.6m), but nothing was passed. Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill', which passed earlier this month, will increase the thresholds again, to $15m (£11.2m) and $30m (£22.5) from 2026. Some have sought to go farther still. In February, US Senate majority leader John Thune introduced the Death Tax Repeal Act – legislation aimed at repealing taxation altogether on the transfer of property when someone dies. Farming unions and politicians keen to court the rural vote are in favour of the move, claiming the tax is a 'boot on the neck farming families' which threatens the continuation of family farming in the country. Cole says that whatever the rights and wrongs of death duties, the prevailing political wind has been against them. 'When Democrats have tried to push back, they haven't been able to assemble a majority, where Republicans have been able to get everyone on board for expanding the estate tax exemption. It looks like Republicans have won on this issue over the last 10 years,' he says. The same cannot be said in the UK, which is going in emphatically the other direction on death duties for agricultural estates. Sir Keir's policy, announced in Chancellor Rachel Reeves's October budget, will introduce an effective inheritance tax of 20 per cent on farm and business assets above £1m. It has provoked fury among farmers, even as the Treasury has claimed 75 per cent of farm estates will remain unaffected. More than 20,000 people protested against the proposals in Whitehall last November, with television star Jeremy Clarkson – who appears in the Prime Video documentary series Clarkson's Farm – saying the proposals would be 'the end' for farmers. But Sir Keir and Reeves have stuck to their guns, despite counter-arguments that for all its divisive effects, the tax would not raise much money. In a BBC interview at the time of the protests, Reeves said: 'I don't think that it is affordable to carry on with a relief like that when our public services are under so much pressure.' One would expect Trump, a Republican, and Sir Keir, the leader of the Labour Party, to disagree ideologically on inheritance tax. But the difference of views Trump alluded to at Turnberry also reflects the different political power of farming in the two countries. In the US, 1 per cent of all employment is in farming, versus around 0.8 per cent in the UK. Farming is 0.9 per cent of total US GDP, 0.6 per cent of British GDP. And while the UK has the National Farmers' Union (NFU), the US has several strong lobbying groups, including the Farm Bureau, as well as groups representing specific commodity interests. What's more, the US political system disproportionately skews towards rural voters. Every state gets two senators regardless of population, meaning sparsely populated, agriculture-heavy states such as Wyoming and North Dakota carry the same legislative weight as California or New York. Before Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill passed, Randy Feenstra, a Republican representative in Iowa, echoed the president's appeal to farmers. 'Thank you to President Trump for noting that the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' will virtually eliminate the death tax!' he wrote on social media. 'This is an unfair double tax on our family farms and small businesses. By delivering additional relief from the death tax, we are investing in our rural communities.' Although farmers may not make up a large percentage of the total population by pure numbers, they can have an emotive effect in elections. Rural voters who are not farmers themselves are likely to be swayed by farming interests. Farmers do not have the same leverage in the UK. 'While the farming environment in the US and UK are very different, farmers in both countries are land-rich but cash-poor, and the president was right to point that out,' says Tom Bradshaw, the president of the NFU. 'The US recognised that such a tax wasn't conducive to running family businesses and producing food, and that it was having a detrimental impact on farmers' well-being. As is right in that situation, it took action to rectify the policy,' he adds. Meanwhile, in Britain, Labour's approach has resulted in a record number of farms (6,365) being forced to close for good in the past 12 months. The majority of the closures took place during the first six months of this year. Despite the fallout, Bradshaw says that British farmers are not seeking to avoid inheritance tax altogether. 'While we are not asking the UK Government to completely abolish inheritance tax, we are asking them for some introspection. Because the current policy fails to achieve the Government's stated intentions of closing a loophole and protecting family farms,' he says. Instead, the NFU has proposed a 'claw-back' method of applying IHT, in which the tax would be applied to assets disposed of only within a seven-year period after death. This would mean the tax is paid only when the finance is available to do so, and not if the farm is kept in the family. '[The method] allows the Treasury to raise revenues without tearing apart farming families, and removes the extreme mental toll this is placing on some members of our community,' Bradshaw says. Labour cultivated – and won – a surprising number of rural votes in the general election last year. Since then, however, it has shown little sign of wanting to consolidate those swings. As well as the farm tax, it has announced plans to increase solar farms, cut Defra's budget in real terms and increase taxes on double-cab pick-up trucks, often used by farmers. A poll of rural voters last December found that 66 per cent of voters think Labour neither understands nor respects rural communities. 'We aren't going away,' said Victoria Vyvyan, the president of the Country Land and Business Association, writing in The Telegraph. 'We aren't a problem to be managed or a narrative to be changed. We are an entire community under attack, and we will not allow [Sir Keir] to reset this Government's reputation until he resets its relationship with rural Britain.' The Labour government led by Tony Blair was also strained by its relationship with rural communities, over foot and mouth and Countryside Alliance protests about the fox-hunting ban. In Blair's memoir, A Journey, he wrote that the fox-hunting ban was 'one of the domestic legislative measures I most regret' and that he had been 'ignorant' of the strength of feeling in the countryside. Labour's present policies suggest it has chosen not to take their most successful leader's lessons on board, and that a fight with the countryside is one it is willing to pick. To judge by the conversation in Turnberry on Monday, on the other hand, Trump understands only too well the power that farmers – and death duties – can have: emotionally, economically and electorally.

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