A strange GOP divide is forming over Trump's gerrymandering plans

Yahoo

a day ago

President Donald Trump's aggressive redistricting push is sparking public concern from an unusual mix of Republicans.
Resistance to mid-decade redraws is running the ideological gamut and cutting across levels of government. While many are backing Trump's gambit to protect the GOP's House majority in the midterms, a growing number of Republican lawmakers are airing concerns — a list that spans lawmakers from swing districts in blue states to safe territory in ruby-red Florida.
Trump and his team have convinced once-wary Texas Republicans to draw a new House map and lobbied the GOP governors of Missouri and Indiana to at least 'seriously' consider following suit, but the Republican governor of New Hampshire has ruled out pursuing any changes because 'the timing is off.' And GOP state lawmakers across the country — who hold the power to redraw lines in several of the states at the forefront of what's becoming a nationwide redistricting arms race — are finding themselves similarly split.
These strange divisions underscore the complex political dynamics of the president's latest power play. It's become a loyalty test that could boost Republicans' chances of keeping their trifecta in Washington, but one that also carries significant electoral risk for several of their own members in Congress and potential for broader voter backlash.
Trump's team is barreling forward, bullish about having more opportunities to redraw maps across the states than Democrats and brushing off concerns as primarily coming from members whose seats are at risk. Administration officials and allies are working to fire up his base by noting that Democrats have already gerrymandered several states in their favor and have limited moves left to play. And MAGA online influencers like Steven Bannon and Charlie Kirk are encouraging their fans to jam Greg Abbott's phone lines so the Texas governor ratchets up pressure on quorum-breaking Democrats to return and let Republicans pass a new congressional map. But even that is showing some limits.
'Redistricting is not really an ideological exercise as much as a self-interest exercise,' California-based GOP strategist Rob Stutzman said. 'The safer you are and enjoy being in the majority, the more your self interest is 'lets see Texas get scrambled and if we sacrifice some colleagues from blue states, in California and New York, so be it.''
But for those more vulnerable Republicans, 'this poses a substantial risk to your career,' Stutzman said. And that's why some are reflecting at least a 'growing private sentiment of 'is this really worth it?''
A person familiar with the White House's thinking on redistricting and granted anonymity to describe it said 'we expect to have great success everywhere' if California Gov. Gavin Newsom and other Democratic governors attempt to retaliate.
'All of these members, they should just remain calm because they'll still be members,' the person said of the Republican lawmakers airing concerns.
In Congress, House GOP leaders are trying to bridge the divide between the White House's 'maximum pressure' campaign to pad their majority, and the swath of GOP members who fear the gambit may backfire. Senior House Republicans have advised some rank and file GOP members to keep their concerns to private conversations, and not air criticisms in public.
Speaker Mike Johnson and other House GOP leaders have repeatedly said in public they prefer to leave redistricting decisions up to individual states. Johnson and his leadership circle have been wary of crossing the White House on the issue, and won't put any bill on the floor that would contradict Trump's push, despite private urgings from some GOP members, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter.
Inside the House GOP conference, Republicans are keenly aware that Trump has been fixated for months on keeping his House majority in the upcoming midterms. Many in deep-red districts are openly supportive of the effort to give Republicans an edge.
But some senior GOP members of the impacted state delegations are quietly raising concerns about the fallout, though they ultimately fear crossing the president. Other Republicans — particularly those in blue states — are increasingly vocal about the potential fallout as Democratic governors threaten to redraw or outright erase their already difficult-to-win districts in retaliation for Trump's plan.
New York Rep. Mike Lawler blasted the Trump-driven effort in Texas as 'wrong,' while California Rep. Doug LaMalfa warned Texas' gambit 'is going to start a grass fire across the country.' Another New York Republican, Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, said she's 'not somebody who's supportive of any type of gerrymandering.'
House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris, the Maryland delegation's lone Republican, cautioned that 'we should probably shy away from mid-cycle redistricting' but also told reporters last week that it's 'pretty hypocritical of Democrats to complain' and if they 'want to roll the dice in Maryland, let them roll the dice. … I look forward to more Republican colleagues.'
Qualms are cropping up in other corners. Utah Rep. Blake Moore, the vice chair of the House Republican Conference who previously co-chaired the anti-gerrymandering group Better Boundaries, called mid-decade redistricting 'a step too far.' A Utah district judge is poised to rule on a redistricting lawsuit that could force the GOP-controlled Legislature to redraw its congressional boundaries.
And Florida Rep. Randy Fine, who Trump boosted to office in a special election earlier this year, is questioning whether the process is even possible in his state given voters approved a measure prohibiting lawmakers from redrawing districts to help incumbents or a particular party.
'I don't understand how Florida does a mid-decade redistricting,' Fine, who previously served as vice-chair of the state House's redistricting committee, said in an interview.
But Fine said he could support redistricting if there was a new Census ahead of 2030 — and has already filed a bill calling for one that would not include people who are in the country illegally.
California Rep. Kevin Kiley, who is spearheading the seemingly dead-on-arrival legislation to ban mid-decade redistricting, insisted there's a 'very strong majority for taking our foot off the accelerator on this' as states race to counter each other.
'It's just going to be this sort of trench warfare where you're not really gaining much ground either way,' Kiley said in an interview.
Redistricting is proving divisive among Republicans elsewhere. In Indiana, Gov. Mike Braun has been noncommittal since meeting with Vice President JD Vance and other top Trump officials about it last week. The lieutenant governor, Micah Beckwith, has called to 'fight fire with fire.' Rep. Victoria Spartz, while not explicitly backing the effort, posted on X that it 'seems hypocritical that Democrats often complain about wanting to make all congressional districts more competitive … yet they do not want all nine in Indiana to become more competitive.'
Yet former Gov. Mitch Daniels slammed the effort as 'just wrong.' And several Republican state lawmakers have voiced opposition, including hard-right state Rep. Jim Lucas, who panned it as 'politically optically horrible.'
Still, Trump's team is confident it can steamroll over any criticism to get Republicans to fall in line. That's in part because Republicans appear to hold the advantage on the redistricting battlemap. The GOP is angling to pick up up to 10 seats across Ohio, Texas, Missouri and Indiana through newly drawn seats. Florida could give the GOP even more, though any new map would not be ready in time for the 2026 election. Democrats, meanwhile, are looking at forcing up to five additional Democratic seats in California — including destroying Kiley's and LaMalfa's even as they face significant financial and legal hurdles.
And Trump's pressure campaign, for the most part, appears to be working. While GOP New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte rebuffed calls to redistrict, Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe appears to be taking steps toward it, including convening the state's top legislative leaders for a private discussion on the matter earlier this month. Several of the GOP members of Missouri's congressional delegation are publicly on board and in some cases outright championing the effort, with Rep. Bob Onder casting it as the difference between 'two more years of pursuing President Trump's pro-America … agenda' and 'two years of impeachment hearings.'
'It is all but a fait accompli at this point," Missouri-based GOP strategist Gregg Keller said, 'that it passes both the House and the Senate and is signed by Gov. Kehoe.'
Gary Fineout and Jordan Wolman contributed to this report.