PSX closes week up on optimism
The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed the week on July 25, 2025 with a steady upward trajectory as the benchmark KSE-100 index gained 610 points, or 0.4% week-on-week (WoW), to settle at 139,207.
Market sentiment remained cautiously optimistic amid corporate earnings' announcements, expectations of a 50-basis-point rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting and a major confidence boost following S&P Global's upgrade of Pakistan's credit rating to 'B-' with a stable outlook. On a day-on-day basis, the PSX commenced the futures rollover week on a negative note on Monday as the KSE-100 index ended at 138,218, down 380 points, or 0.27%. Investors resorted to profit-taking and also remained cautious ahead of policy rate decision.
The market had a positive day on Tuesday, when the index posted a gain of 1,202 points, or 0.87%, to a new all-time high at 139,420, driven by assurances of support by the army chief to business leaders.
Continuing its consolidation near 140,000, a key psychological level, the bourse closed on Wednesday at 139,254, translating into a loss of 165 points owing mainly to profit-booking. The PSX had a negative day on Thursday, where the index shed 562 points amid investor caution over futures rollover.
On the last day of the week on Friday, the market gained 515 points and settled at 139,207 over enthusiasm sparked by Pakistan's rating upgrade and hopes of monetary easing.
Arif Habib Limited (AHL) noted in its review that the market witnessed mixed sentiment during the outgoing week, rallying on Tuesday amid ongoing June 2025 quarterly corporate results and expectations of a potential rate cut in the upcoming MPC meeting. However, profit-taking the following day capped gains. Boosting investor sentiment further, S&P Global upgraded Pakistan's credit rating to 'B-' with a stable outlook, citing macroeconomic stabilisation and reform progress, it said.
In treasury bills' auction, the State Bank raised Rs424.4 billion against the target of Rs200 billion, with yields dropping 10-39 basis points across all tenors. In June 2025, repatriated profits and dividends plunged 72.4% year-on-year (YoY) and 56.7% month-on-month (MoM) to $114.2 million; though FY25 saw a marginal 0.2% rise to $2.2 billion.
In June, AHL mentioned, Pakistan's power generation rose 2.1% YoY to 13,744 gigawatt hours (GWh) from 13,459 GWh in June 2024, and increased 8% MoM. Oil and gas production fell 12% and 7% YoY, respectively, in FY25, driven by output pressures from key fields amid forced curtailments and weaker gas demand.
Among other economic news, the State Bank's foreign exchange reserves fell $69 million to $14.46 billion. However, the Pakistani rupee appreciated marginally by 0.5%, closing at 283.45 against the dollar, AHL said.
Sectors that contributed positively were investment banks (408 points), exploration & production (213 points), fast moving consumer goods (124 points), auto assemblers (59 points) and power (52 points). Meanwhile, sector-wise negative contributions came from miscellaneous (149 points), banks (71 points), leather (54 points), pharma (35 points) and textile composite (31 points), it added.
Syed Danyal Hussain of JS Global noted that the KSE-100 index remained range bound during the week but ended on a positive note at 139,207, reflecting a 0.4% WoW gain. On the flip side, the average daily turnover dropped 17% to 635 million shares.
In a major development, he said, the S&P Global upgraded Pakistan's sovereign credit rating to 'B-' from 'CCC+', triggering a rally in long-dated dollar bonds to three-year highs and improving investor confidence. Meanwhile, the government was aiming to address the Rs2.8 trillion worth of circular debt in the gas sector without burdening consumers, with multiple plans under consideration.
During the week, the central bank released the advance calendar for MPC meetings scheduled for FY26 and the next meeting is set for July 30. In other developments, Pakistan secured $12.4 billion in foreign loans during FY25, up $2.6 billion from FY24. Repatriation of profits and dividends totalled $2.2 billion in FY25, remaining flat YoY. Notably, the power sector saw the largest outflow of $399 million, marking a 62% YoY increase.
In the latest T-bill auction, the SBP raised Rs424 billion against the target of Rs200 billion, with yields falling 10 to 39 basis points across various tenors. Finally, the SBP's foreign reserves declined $69 million WoW to $14.45 billion, primarily due to external debt repayments.
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