Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer: 6 starting pitchers improperly valued right now, and how to take advantage
Starting pitchers are tough to assess during the initial weeks of the MLB season, as both their fantasy numbers and underlying skill metrics tend to fluctuate wildly from one start to the next. Wise managers will stick with the tried-and-true K-BB% stat when looking for diamonds in the rough, and they will use noisy stats such as BABIP, strand rate and HR/FB rate to find the hurlers who are improperly valued on the Yahoo Trade Market.
Here are six candidates who fit that description.
A manager who wants to buy low on Cease (4.60 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) can easily make a case that the inconsistent right-hander is having yet another down year. After all, while his strikeout totals have been consistent, Cease's ratios have been anything but over the past five seasons. The reality is that his 2025 strikeout and walk rates are similar to the marks posted during his best seasons, as is the quality of contact that he has allowed. Cease has been felled by a .331 BABIP and a 66.7% strand rate, and those numbers should experience positive regression in the coming weeks. There aren't many opportunities to add 200-strikeout pitchers at a discount.
Already one of the safest starters in fantasy baseball, Webb has taken his game to another level by improving his strikeout rate. The veteran's 29.3% mark is easily a career high and is nearly 9% better than his mark from last season. He has accumulated at least five strikeouts in every start, which is a feat that he accomplished in only 58% of his appearances last year.
By racking up more whiffs while continuing to induce plenty of grounders, Webb has become someone who perfectly blends a high floor and a notable ceiling. The icing on the cake is that he pitches for a team that sits seventh in baseball in winning percentage.
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A late-round pick in many 2025 drafts, Luzardo has reclaimed the velocity he lost last year and once again features a fastball that exceeds 96 mph. Even better, the left-hander is throwing his slider more often and at a higher speed than ever before.
Luzardo may not repeat his 208-strikeout season from 2023, but he can collect 190 whiffs while posting excellent ratios on one of baseball's best teams.
This year, Bibee has been a jack of all trades, but a master of none. The right-hander has thrown five pitches at least 12% of the time, and while his fastball velocity lines up with previous seasons, the speed of his secondary offerings has declined. He has really struggled to put batters away (16.8% strikeout rate), while issuing free passes more often than usual (8.6% walk rate). In fact, Bibee would look much worse if not for a .236 BABIP and an 83.3% strand rate. The 26-year-old has been serviceable in recent starts, which makes this a good time to trade him for a respectable return.
Many managers will look at Mahle's underlying numbers and refuse to pay a premium in trade talks. But there will at least be a couple of managers in each league who won't be able to resist acquiring someone with eye-popping ratios that include a 1.47 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. Those who are trying to move Mahle can point out in trade talks that he has faced some quality lineups, including two starts against the Red Sox and an outing against each of the Dodgers and Cubs.
Between the 30-year-old's lengthy injury history and mediocre 37:16 K:BB ratio, there is ample reason to cash out in the coming weeks. Mahle faces the White Sox next week, and my ideal goal would be to trade him after that start.
There is an easy way to sell Pfaadt's success on the trade market. After all, the right-hander was among the unluckiest pitchers in baseball last year, logging a 4.71 ERA that was more than a full run lower than most of his ERA estimators. And now that his luck has changed, he has a well-deserved 3.73 ERA. But the truth is that the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction with Pfaadt, who has experienced a dip in his strikeout rate and has benefited from a 79.9% strand rate. He's more of an innings eater than a true impact pitcher.
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USA Today
15 minutes ago
- USA Today
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics odds, tips and betting trends
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Favorite: Angels (-159, bet $159 to win $100) Angels (-159, bet $159 to win $100) Underdog: Athletics (+133, bet $100 to win $133) Athletics (+133, bet $100 to win $133) Over/under: 9 Angels vs. Athletics: Game time and live stream info Game day: Monday, June 9, 2025 Monday, June 9, 2025 Game time: 9:38 p.m. ET 9:38 p.m. ET Location: Anaheim, California Anaheim, California Stadium: Angel Stadium Angel Stadium TV channel: FDSW and NBCS-CA FDSW and NBCS-CA Live stream: Watch LIVE with Fubo! (Regional restrictions may apply) Watch Angels vs. Athletics on Fubo! Angels stats and trends Angels betting records This season, the Angels have won five out of the 11 games, or 45.5%, in which they've been favored. This season, the Angels have won two of their five games when favored by at least -159 on the moneyline. The implied probability of a win from the Angels, based on the moneyline, is 61.4%. The Angels and their opponents have hit the over in 33 of their 64 games with a total this season. 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New York Times
19 minutes ago
- New York Times
Phillies takeaways on the sputtering offense, outfield issues and a pitching tightrope
The defining sequence of a miserable weekend in Pittsburgh that featured three Phillies' one-run losses came in the seventh inning Saturday afternoon. The game was tied. Alec Bohm doubled to right, then advanced to third on a wild pitch. No outs. The Phillies just needed a fly ball to score him. Nick Castellanos worked a 3-0 count against righty reliever Isaac Mattson. He took two straight sliders for strikes, then a borderline fastball for strike three. J.T. Realmuto got a hanging slider and skied it only 214 feet to right — not deep enough. Bryson Stott reached a full count but couldn't handle a changeup in the zone. He flied out to center. Advertisement The Pirates homered in the bottom half of the inning. The end. But that failed seventh-inning chance was emblematic of a deeper issue that begins to explain how the Phillies have sputtered on offense. They have failed to do damage on non-fastballs this season, especially over the past two weeks. 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Thomson had Orion Kerkering, who has pitched far better in the past five weeks, ready. But lefties have pummeled Kerkering for an .845 OPS this season. Thomson has no righty reliever he can trust against a team's best left-handed batter. His best right-on-left option might be Taijuan Walker (.637 OPS against), but Walker was not available because he cannot go on back-to-back days yet. Jordan Romano (.884 OPS versus lefties), Carlos Hernández (.987) and Joe Ross (.796) haven't been effective in those situations. The only bullpens with a worse OPS in right-on-left matchups are the Athletics and Dodgers. This is not a new problem; Phillies righty relievers permitted a league-worst .859 OPS to lefties last season. Matt Strahm cannot face every lefty in a high-leverage spot. This is where not having José Alvarado hurts. Advertisement Sánchez and Ranger Suárez at least put the rotation back on course with consecutive seven-inning performances. The Phillies played the weekend without three of their four highest-paid players (Zack Wheeler, Bryce Harper and Aaron Nola). Wheeler will return Monday to start against the Cubs, his first outing in 10 days. That should help. There will be a greater onus on Mick Abel to serve as a decent rotation piece while Nola's absence lingers. Andrew Painter's progressions will become even more important as the Phillies continue to exhaust internal options before the July 31 trade deadline. Painter is expected to pitch twice this week at Triple-A Lehigh Valley — Tuesday and Sunday — meaning he will go on four days' rest for the first time in his professional career. That is one of the final boxes the Phillies wanted the 22-year-old righty to check before coming to the majors. The best cover for a shaky bullpen is a strong rotation. But, as the Phillies discovered over the weekend, even that is rendered helpless without a semi-competent offense. (Top photo of Nick Castellanos reacting after striking out in the seventh on Saturday: Justin Berl / Getty Images)
Associated Press
38 minutes ago
- Associated Press
Atlanta's season is starting to slip away after another 7-game losing streak
Updated [hour]:[minute] [AMPM] [timezone], [monthFull] [day], [year] One seven-game losing streak was manageable for Atlanta — a possible fluke at the start of the season. But now the Braves have dropped seven in a row again, and it's time to wonder if this will simply be a lost season for one of the game's star-studded teams. Sunday's 4-3 defeat at San Francisco dropped Atlanta to 10 games under .500 and 9 1/2 games behind the National League's final playoff spot. The Braves haven't missed the postseason since 2017 — and it's too early to count them out this year — but they can't afford to have much more go wrong. Atlanta started the season 0-7, then spent about six weeks clawing its way back to .500. All that work has already been undone after the Braves dropped another seven straight this past week. The last five of those defeats were by one run, including a ghastly collapse at home against Arizona on Thursday in which the Diamondbacks scored seven runs in the ninth to win 11-10. After that, Atlanta called up reliever Craig Kimbrel from the minors — the franchise saves leader returned to the Braves for the first time since they traded him before the 2015 season. He pitched once, then was designated for assignment. Atlanta overcame injuries to Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider to make the playoffs a year ago. Those two are back now, but while Acuña is hitting well, Strider has lost all five of his starts on the mound. The Braves are also one of only three teams in baseball with more blown saves (12) than saves (10). There are some reasons for Atlanta to keep hope alive. A big problem so far has been the team's 9-19 record in one-run games, which suggests the Braves don't need to improve much to turn things around. They actually have a positive run differential on the season. But the NL East may already be out of reach, with Atlanta trailing the first-place New York Mets by 14 games. Right now the Braves are in fourth, as close to last-place Miami as they are to third-place Washington. Trivia time Pete Alonso of the Mets needs 10 more homers to surpass Darryl Strawberry for the franchise's career lead. Only three active players currently hold the home run record for a major league franchise. Name the players, and the teams they hold the career lead in homers for. Line of the week Seattle's George Kirby struck out 14 and allowed just two hits in seven innings in a 3-2 win over the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday. That snapped a five-game skid for the Mariners, who could use a more effective Kirby. The right-hander is 1-3 with a 6.53 ERA in four starts after missing the start of the season because of shoulder issues. Perhaps this performance was a sign that he's righting the ship. Comeback of the week This is obviously the Diamondbacks, who according to Baseball Savant faced a win probability of 0.1% after their leadoff hitter in the ninth struck out. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hit a solo homer, Alek Thomas added a two-run shot and Katel Marte produced an RBI single before the second out of the inning. Then Ildemaro Vargas hit an RBI single, and Eugenio Suárez's two-run double put Arizona ahead. Five other teams have come back to win after trailing by six this year, but none of those six-run deficits were later than the seventh inning. Trivia answer Mike Trout holds the Angels' record with 388 home runs. Giancarlo Stanton, now with the Yankees, is the Marlins' leader with 267. Manny Machado has the Padres' record of 177. (Evan Longoria holds the Rays' record with 261, but he hasn't played in the majors since 2023 and signed a one-day contract Saturday to retire with Tampa Bay.) ___ AP MLB:
