All hands on deck

Bangkok Post

6 days ago

Thailand is on the brink of facing trade woes, no matter whether the US imposes steep or gentler reciprocal tariffs on Thai imports.
US President Donald Trump's threatening reciprocal tariff policy has not only sparked concerns over sales of more expensive Thai goods in the American market but has also prompted businesses and the government to take a serious look into problems in the export sector and possible changes that may ensue amid uncertainties surrounding Washington's trade policy.
Since Trump vowed in April to strengthen tariff measures, entrepreneurs in key industries and analysts have been kept busy, shifting between different tariff scenarios, assessing potential adverse impacts as well as examining product prices and export figures.
Talks on attempts to seek new markets to replace the US have also been highlighted but often simply suggest significant challenges and an uphill task.
ELECTRONICS TRADE MONITORED
According to Tris Rating, electronics and electrical equipment are among the sectors to be most severely affected by the US tariffs.
KGI Securities predicts consumer PCs and smartphones to be subject to tariffs, making for an uncertain demand outlook from the second half of this year through 2026.
"If the US imposes a 36% tariff on electronic components and computer parts, we estimate that it could lead to a decline in export value of roughly 120 billion baht in 2025 and 360 billion baht in 2026, compared to a scenario where these products remain tariff-exempt," said Phongprapha Napapruekchat, assistant vice-president of Krungthai Compass, a research unit under Krungthai Bank.
Based on data collected from the Ministry of Commerce, he estimated that the impact of US import tariff hikes on global suppliers will have a limited effect on smartphone and computer retail prices in Thailand. This is primarily because Thai consumers and businesses source nearly all smartphones and computers from China.
In 2024, imports from China accounted for roughly 80% of smartphones and 95% of computers imported into Thailand.
Additionally, the limited impact is reinforced by Thailand's continued exemption of import duties on both smartphones and computers, Mr Phongprapha added.
America's imports of electrical and electronics products from Thailand were valued at US$35.6 billion in 2024, a jump from $16.3 billion in 2020, according to the Electrical and Electronics Institute.
US exports of such products to Thailand stood at only $3.46 billion in 2024, up from $2.02 billion in 2020.
A source from an IT distributor noted that it's too early to estimate the full impact of the tariffs on exports of computer components.
The primary concern lies in indirect effects. If local exporters overall face a higher export tariff, their businesses would be affected, which could result in them consuming less or investing less in new IT products.
Kasame Srilertchaipanij, vice-president for marketing at IT City, said if the US imposes a higher import tariff, tech products may need to explore new destinations and increase sales in alternative regions.
PCB WOES
Washington's new trade policy has triggered fresh worries over Thailand's fast-growing printed circuit board (PCB) industry, with PCB exports to the US expected to drop this year.
PCBs are a key component of electronic devices, including smartphones and computers, as well as electric vehicles (EVs).
The US's steep import tax on PCBs from Thailand has caused Kasikorn Research Centre (K-Research) to downgrade its projection of overall PCB export growth to 2% in 2025, down from 3.9%, under the worst-case scenario of a 36% tariff.
Some 80% of Thailand's PCB output is exported to major markets, including China, the US and Japan, demonstrating the country's growing influence in the global supply chain, said Narucha Ruchuphan, deputy secretary-general of the Board of Investment (BoI).
Last year Thailand was the sixth largest exporter of PCBs to the US, making up 4% of total PCBs shipped to America. China was ranked first with a 31% share, followed by Taiwan (29%), Japan (6%) and South Korea and Canada, each with 5%, according to K-Research.
Many entrepreneurs, including those from China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Japan, are interested, or have already invested in developing PCB production facilities here, partly because they want to avoid the impact of geopolitical conflicts, said the BoI.
Companies specialising in PCB manufacturing and assembly have applied for investment incentives for 130 projects, with a total investment value of 202 billion baht over the past three years.
The investment growth makes Thailand the largest PCB manufacturer in Southeast Asia and among the top five globally.
HARD HIT ON RICE
Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, warned that a potential 36% tariff on Thai jasmine rice would have a drastic impact on pricing.
Currently, the price of Thai jasmine rice stands at $1,100 a tonne, but with the imposition of the tariff, the cost would rise to $1,496 a tonne.
He said if the negotiations succeed in lowering the tariff to 20%, which is similar to Vietnam's rate, the price would still see an increase to $1,320 a tonne.
Meanwhile, Vietnam's high-quality jasmine rice is $900 a tonne. With a 20% tariff applied, the price would be $1,080, further widening the price gap between Thai and Vietnamese jasmine rice.
This may encourage more US buyers to purchase Vietnamese rice and potentially reduce Thailand's share of the US jasmine rice market.
Mr Chookiat added that if exports decline, Thai jasmine rice prices may drop significantly. However, finding new markets poses a challenge as Thai rice consistently has higher prices than its competitors.
The global jasmine rice market is already limited to select regions, and expanding into the European market is difficult.
Meanwhile, Vietnam has acquired significant shares in Asian markets such as China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia and Cambodia, which are now witnessing increased export volumes.
"The competition in the jasmine rice market is fierce, while other rice varieties are also facing intense rivalry," said Mr Chookiat.
Regarding potential adjustments, he said adapting to such conditions is difficult as the rice trade operates on slim margins, with the primary focus on volume.
Government support appears unlikely, except for minimal assistance to farmers.
"We really don't know what to do because all of us have already cut costs and there is nothing left to cut. Employment is linked to export volume, and a decline in exports directly threatens jobs," he said.
Mr Chookiat added that in the first half of this year, Thailand exported only 3.6 million tonnes of rice, a significant 30% decrease from last year.
In contrast, Vietnam managed to export 5.2 million tonnes during the same period.
"We predict that Thailand's total rice exports will not meet the 7.5-million-tonne target. The association plans to reassess this target after analysing export figures for the latter half of the year," he said.
Thailand shipped 830,000 tonnes of rice to the US -- the largest export market for Thai jasmine rice -- last year, comprising 630,000 tonnes of Thai jasmine rice and 200,000 tonnes of Thai fragrant rice.
Each year, Thailand exports about 1.3-1.4 million tonnes of Thai jasmine rice.
FEAR OF PERMANENT LOSSES
The silver jewellery sector is voicing increasing worries about its future as a potential US tariff on Thai products looms.
If the US imposes a 36% tariff on Thai products, producers anticipate a significant drop in orders. Buyers may press producers and exporters to absorb some of the tariff costs, which could lead to lower product prices.
"Our primary concern is the possibility of customers shifting their orders to countries like India and China or even relocating their production bases. Once customers make the switch, it's hard to win them back, which could result in a permanent loss," said Sidthisak Limvatanayingyong, president of the Thai Silver Exporters Association.
He said a tariff rate around 26% is more favourable for producers and allows them to remain competitive, as this aligns with India's rate.
"If Thailand can secure a comparative rate, we anticipate growth of 3-5% in the silver jewellery sector this year. Conversely, if this does not happen, we could see a decline of 10-20%," he warned.
The US is the largest export market for Thailand's silver jewellery, making up nearly 30% of the total export value of $2 billion.
In the first five months of this year, Thailand exported silver jewellery worth about $900 million, with $560 million going to the US.
Mr Sidthisak said while the tariff situation may change again in the future, silver jewellers must navigate through these tough times to ensure their survival.
"We need to look for new markets in collaboration with relevant government bodies and private associations. Finding alternative markets to mitigate the decline in US orders is challenging, but it's essential to ease the situation," he said.
He emphasised that Thailand's silver jewellery industry serves as an upstream supplier for the US. He believes that Americans generally do not engage in this sector and may not have the desire to do so.
The gems and jewellery sector is vital for Thailand, generating around $8 billion in export revenue annually. The industry is complex, employing a million people, predominantly small and medium-sized enterprises, with about 80% being locally owned.
Currently, Thailand exports about 40-50 billion baht of jewellery to the US. The higher tariff would increase product prices and diminish Thailand's competitive edge in the industry, said Suriyon Sriorathaikul, managing director of Beauty Gems Co.
He called on the government to alleviate the financial pressures faced by exporters, suggesting support from the Export-Import Bank of Thailand and a reduction in corporate income tax to enhance employment opportunities.
He proposed initiatives to encourage tourists to purchase jewellery in Thailand.
Sumeth Prasongphongchai, director of the Gem and Jewelry Institute of Thailand, said higher tariffs could adversely impact mass-market and original equipment manufacturer production facilities.
If countries like Vietnam and Malaysia benefit from lower tariffs, there is a risk that importers may relocate their production there, drawn by more affordable labour costs.
On the other hand, when it comes to high-end jewellery, he said buyers will continue to seek out Thai craftsmanship, which poses a challenge for relocating production.
WIDESPREAD DISRUPTION
Chanintr Chalisarapong, president of the Thai Pet Food Trade Association and the Thai Tuna Industry Association, said a potential 36% tariff on exports to the US could severely disrupt trade for all businesses.
Thailand's pet food exports are significant, amounting to about 30 billion baht each year, with the US the largest and fastest-growing market.
American importers have paused their orders, awaiting clearer policy guidance before Aug 1 after having previously rushed to stock up, he said.
Mr Chanintr said that relief measures may not be a solution in this case because it requires a significant amount of funds, as Thailand exports around 1.8 trillion baht in goods to the US.
He added that an appropriate solution should be a tariff closer to 20%. If the US imposes additional economic challenges on Thailand, local consumers will be affected and have a reduced ability to purchase US products.
He said the potential reduction of import tariffs on US goods to 0%, similar to what Vietnam offers, is difficult for Thailand, and it may also be impractical for Vietnam.
He added that it's noteworthy that for many products, Thailand has imposed a 0% import tariff, despite an official rate of 20%. When it comes to re-exported goods, the real duty charged is often 0%, a trend that many products follow.
While rising tariffs may affect the industry, he said businesses are encouraged to adapt by seeking new export markets, as the Thai pet food sector continues to possess strong competitive advantages.
TRANSSHIPMENT CONCERNS
The US's reciprocal tariffs have prompted the business sector to pay more heed to America's questions on imports transshipped from its trading partners, which led Trump to enforce high trade barriers.
Vietnam successfully clinched a deal with Washington to decrease the tariff to a rate of 20%, down from 46%, but still faces a 40% levy on products exported from an origin country via Vietnam to the US. The more stringent import duty is believed to target Chinese goods using this tactic to bypass US duties, according to media reports.
"We are most worried about transshipment. The government must carefully deal with this issue," said Wiwat Hemmondharop, vice-chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI).
The state's actions will cause a change in the Thai export sector, enabling authorities to identify which products are really produced domestically and exported.
This means the country's export figures may have been overstated so far, said Jareeporn Jarukornsakul, chairman of the executive committee and group chief executive of WHA Corporation Plc, a Thai industrial estate developer.
During the first five months of this year, total exports soared by 14.9% year-on-year, but the increase conflicted with the Manufacturing Production Index, which increased only marginally.
Such export growth is likely to result from transshipment, with Thailand used as a transit point for goods exported to third countries, especially exports to the US, which surged by 27% for the period, according to the FTI.
The increase of Thai exports to the US over the past 10 years may be partly driven by transshipment, said Ms Jareeporn.
"Thailand needs to closely look into this matter. Transshipment does not benefit the country significantly," she said.
LIMITED ASSISTANCE
Entrepreneurs in Thailand will face an uphill task seeking new markets in place of the US as state measures to help them better compete with other countries by lowering energy costs face constraints, according to energy officials.
Electricity and diesel prices are among major factors determining manufacturers' competitiveness in the global market.
The current power tariff, which is used to calculate electricity bills, stands at 3.98 baht per kilowatt-hour (unit), which is higher than that in Vietnam.
According to media reports, retail electricity prices in the neighbouring country range between 1,826.22 dong and 2,444.09 dong, roughly 2.34-3.14 baht per unit.
"We can only temporarily subsidise electricity prices," said an official from the Energy Regulatory Commission who requested anonymity.
The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat) has shouldered a huge debt caused by its electricity price subsidy programme, especially in 2022 when the Russian invasion of Ukraine drove up global oil and gas prices.
Gas makes up 60% of fuels used for power generation in Thailand.
Electricity bills in Thailand remain expensive because part of the price of the bills must reimburse Egat for its previous subsidies.
The government also cannot keep the retail prices of diesel at low levels, though it is a major fuel used in the manufacturing sector.
"Thailand is not a rich country that can always put a cap on fuel prices at levels desired by businesses. We are also not rich in oil and gas," said Pornchai Jirakulpisan, head of the Oil Fuel Fund Office's policy and strategy department.
The government set the maximum domestic diesel price at 30 baht a litre, but during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war and the 12-day Israel-Iran confrontation in June, it could not fix the price at this rate.
Diesel is currently sold at 31.94 baht a litre.
The state Oil Fuel Fund, which is used as a buffer against surges in global crude oil prices, has limited money to regulate the prices of diesel, gasoline and gasohol.
Oil users' contributions to support the fund and oil excise tax usually makes up more than 40% of the retail price of oil, said Mr Pornchai.
Reducing the contributions and tax have been used to relieve the impact of a surge in crude prices. Authorities can also borrow money to subsidise oil prices through the fund, but they are not allowed to incur a heavy debt that will alarmingly weaken the financial status of the fund, he said.
EMERGING TRENDS
Surinthorn Sunthornsanan, deputy director-general of the Department of International Trade Promotion at the Ministry of Commerce, said the ongoing uncertainties and conflicts in global trade have caused three major challenges for Thai companies to adjust themselves accordingly.
First is decoupling of the supply chain, dividing by geopolitical factors to countries favoured by US tariffs. This trend affects material sourcing of companies, he said.
The second trend is reshoring of production, which refers to the practice of moving manufacturing operations back to a company's home country after previously outsourcing them to another country.
Prior to the US's announcement of reciprocal tariffs, this trend gained traction in recent years due to various factors, including rising labour costs in traditional manufacturing hubs, supply chain disruptions and a desire for greater control over production and quality.
"The more production reshoring, the less risks companies facing backlash from escalating trade tensions globally. This trend has prompted manufacturers to invest more in their home countries to minimise potential risks," Mr Surinthorn acknowledged.
"This trend seems to enable Asean to solidify our status as an ideal network of production because the region positions itself as neutral, does not take sides in global geopolitics and has balanced relations with powerful countries," he pointed out.
Finally, there is the possibility that high tariffs imposed by several countries will last long, complicating the global trading landscape.
"The current uncertainties make it difficult for companies to lay down strategies as things are hard to predict. We have to work harder to cope with the evolving situation," he noted. "While we expect the best, we must prepare for the worst."